Bassett Football Model

The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed. Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter part of a game.

Quick menu:

NCAA Div IA & IAA

FBS & FCS Championship Games Results

NFL

Postseason: Divisional (16-17 Jan) Results
Postseason: Conference (24 Jan) Forecast

More about the model ...

Questions and answers ...

The purpose of this football web page is to provide an unbiased analysis of the teams: how they compare with each other and what sort of results to expect from upcoming games. It is not my intention, however, to encourage gambling with this information. I have purposely presented the information in a way that will minimize its usefulness in this regard while still providing useful entertainment, etc. Comments on how to avoid the misuse of these web pages for gambling are most welcome.

Enjoy!

2020 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Week 1 (28 Aug - 7 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 2 (10-12 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 3 (18-19 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 4 (24-26 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 5 (2-3 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 6 (7-10 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 7 (14-17 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 8 (22-24 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 9 (29-31 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 10 (5-7 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 11 (13-14 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 12 (20-21 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 13 (27-28 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 14 (1-5 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 15 (10-12 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 16 (17-19 Dec): Forecast , Results
Bowl Games: Forecast , Results
FBS & FCS Championship Games: Forecast , Results

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

The 2020 Bassett Model rankings, filtered for active teams, can be found at College Football Ranking Comparasion

2020 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         80     303      61      65      73       0     582
number right:        42     200      48      54      68       0     412
number expected:   44.2   197.6    45.9    55.9    68.4     0.0   412.0
right/expected:    0.95    1.01    1.05    0.97    0.99    0.00    1.00

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         63     227      45      49      55       0     439
number right:        31     147      35      42      51       0     306
number expected:   34.7   148.0    33.8    42.1    51.5     0.0   310.1
right/expected:    0.89    0.99    1.03    1.00    0.99    0.00    0.99

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         11      59      13      11      15       0     109
number right:         7      38      10       7      14       0      76
number expected:    6.2    38.4     9.8     9.5    14.2     0.0    78.0
right/expected:    1.14    0.99    1.02    0.74    0.99    0.00    0.97

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          6      17       3       5       3       0      34
number right:         4      15       3       5       3       0      30
number expected:    3.3    11.2     2.3     4.3     2.8     0.0    23.9
right/expected:    1.20    1.34    1.32    1.15    1.07    0.00    1.25

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Past Seasons

2020 NFL Forecast

Week 1 (10-14 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 2 (17-21 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 3 (24-28 Sep): Forecast , Results
Week 4 (1-5 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 5 (8-12 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 6 (15-19 Oct) - updated 17 Oct: Forecast , Results
Week 7 (22-26 Oct): Forecast , Results
Week 8 (29 Oct - 2 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 9 (5-9 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 10 (12-16 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 11 (19-23 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 12 (26-30 Nov): Forecast , Results
Week 13 (3-7 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 14 (10-14 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 15 (17-21 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 16 (25-28 Dec): Forecast , Results
Week 17 (3 Jan): Forecast , Results
Postseason: Wild Card (9-10 Jan): Forecast , Results
Postseason: Divisional (16-17 Jan): Forecast , Results
Postseason: Conference (24 Jan): Forecast

18 Jan 2021: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank over entire season)

18 Jan 2021: Current model rankings (NFL) (rank at current week in the season)

2020 Model Performance:

All games                     forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         39     171      31      25       0       0     266
number right:        22     105      17      23       0       0     167
number expected:   21.5   106.0    23.1    20.8     0.0     0.0   171.4
right/expected:    1.02    0.99    0.74    1.11    0.00    0.00    0.97

Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games                forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      66      11       9       0       0      99
number right:         8      39       5       9       0       0      61
number expected:    7.2    41.0     8.2     7.5     0.0     0.0    63.8
right/expected:    1.12    0.95    0.61    1.21    0.00    0.00    0.96

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      66      18       6       0       0     103
number right:         6      43      11       6       0       0      66
number expected:    7.2    40.8    13.5     5.0     0.0     0.0    66.5
right/expected:    0.84    1.05    0.82    1.20    0.00    0.00    0.99

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      39       2      10       0       0      64
number right:         8      23       1       8       0       0      40
number expected:    7.2    24.1     1.4     8.3     0.0     0.0    41.1
right/expected:    1.11    0.95    0.71    0.96    0.00    0.00    0.97

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Past Seasons

Links of interest

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net