prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 125 Saint John's 23 35.3, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 2.1
92% 103 William & Mary 55 48.7, 233 Virginia Military 15 4.8
92% 73 Texas Tech 13 33.3, 206 North Texas 7 3.8
92% 65 Toledo 51 45.1, 222 Weber State 0 5.9
92% 26 Florida A&M 56 57.8, 214 Morgan State 25 12.7
92% 19 Purdue 45 55.9, 204 Kent State 10 10.3
92% 12 Oklahoma 45 48.9, 160 Arkansas State 7 11.8
92% 11 Florida 55 51.3, 182 Middle Tennessee State 0 11.2
91% 176 Western Kentucky 71 50.7, 237 Tennessee - Martin 0 7.6
91% 90 Delaware 38 38.7, 216 The Citadel 0 8.1
91% 9 Texas 52 59.3, 208 Southwestern Louisiana 10 6.8
90% 165 McNeese State 41 39.3, 236 Prairie View 0 6.1
90% 67 Elon 45 39.4, 195 Delaware State 6 11.7
89% 70 Iowa State 37 35.5, 190 Nevada - Las Vegas 22 8.3
89% 8 Michigan 38 37.5, 99 Rice 7 12.3
87% 199 Iona 55 40.5, 234 Canisius 2 16.4
87% 105 James Madison 38 34.2, 196 Liberty 7 13.1
87% 71 Memphis State 28 27.0, 185 Northeast Louisiana 0 4.7
87% 40 Colorado State 41 38.2, 163 East Tennessee State 7 12.3
86% 137 Morehead State 46 49.2, 229 Butler 43 21.9
85% 169 Marist 14 33.1, 230 Saint Peter's 0 12.2
85% 108 New Hampshire 13 30.4, 192 Rhode Island 12 12.5
84% 1 Nebraska 27 33.9, 33 Notre Dame 24 16.7
83% 188 Rutgers 59 33.0, 226 Buffalo 0 15.6
83% 145 Wagner 14 29.1, 210 Monmouth 7 12.7
83% 87 Duquesne 30 40.3, 217 La Salle 7 19.2
83% 84 Western Illinois 24 37.2, 205 Ball State 14 16.6
83% 47 Texas Christian 41 39.3, 170 Nevada - Reno 10 20.7
82% 98 Alabama - Birmingham 20 35.4, 166 Tennessee - Chattanoog 15 18.5
82% 20 Alabama 28 33.3, 82 Vanderbilt 10 16.5
81% 75 Maryland 17 29.5, 149 Temple 10 13.2
81% 58 Oklahoma State 36 36.8, 175 Tulsa 26 20.2
80% 50 Louisville 52 45.9, 136 Grambling 0 27.9
80% 28 Clemson 62 34.4, 76 Missouri 9 20.0
79% 69 Virginia 34 35.0, 128 Richmond 6 19.8
79% 51 Oregon State 28 29.2, 134 New Mexico 20 16.4
79% 38 Lehigh 34 38.9, 143 Wofford 14 23.7
79% 32 Texas A&M 51 27.4, 78 Wyoming 3 15.0
78% 181 Bethune - Cookman 24 30.5, 223 Norfolk State 6 17.9
78% 89 Central Florida 19 28.6, 150 Northwestern State 7 16.2
78% 53 Hofstra 51 28.4, 139 Maine 30 16.0
78% 2 Florida State 26 41.8, 37 Georgia Tech 21 25.4
77% 60 Kentucky 27 29.7, 110 South Florida 9 17.4
77% 3 Virginia Tech 45 31.0, 25 East Carolina 28 18.2
76% 152 Sacramento State 37 32.8, 189 California Poly 18 22.4
76% 86 Miami - Ohio 34 32.3, 164 Eastern Michigan 17 21.4
75% 7 Wisconsin 27 26.5, 21 Oregon 23 16.7
73% 138 Hampton 26 33.0, 187 Howard 24 24.2
73% 61 Boise State 42 33.0, 85 Northern Iowa 17 24.4
72% 194 Davidson 36 24.3, 212 Jacksonville 7 16.8
72% 63 Montana 45 34.8, 111 Idaho 38 26.1
72% 16 Penn State 67 35.4, 46 Louisiana Tech 7 23.4
71% 45 Louisiana State 28 23.6, 83 Houston 13 15.2
70% 115 Northwestern 38 23.4, 154 Duke 5 15.6
68% 10 Michigan State 34 25.8, 13 Marshall 24 18.4
67% 94 Pittsburgh 34 31.3, 147 Bowling Green 16 25.1
67% 81 Boston College 55 26.5, 126 Army 17 20.3
64% 22 Ohio State 27 26.0, 42 Arizona 17 21.3
61% 68 California - Los Angel 24 26.0, 64 Fresno State 21 22.9
61% 30 Illinois 49 22.4, 57 San Diego State 13 19.2
60% 219 Jacksonville State 10 27.5, 228 Nicholls State 3 24.7
60% 80 Western Michigan 27 27.8, 114 Iowa 21 25.3
59% 135 Towson 42 20.6, 172 Lafayette 20 18.9
58% 27 Southern California 17 26.0, 24 Colorado 14 24.3
55% 140 Utah State 30 31.7, 122 Southern Utah 14 30.9
53% 52 Air Force 31 21.6, 41 Brigham Young 23 20.8
50% 102 North Carolina A&T 16 22.2, 104 Tennessee State 14 22.2
47% 130 Texas - El Paso 37 21.6, 113 Southern Methodist 20 22.2
44% 158 Eastern Kentucky 34 27.7, 171 Indiana State 10 28.9
40% 97 North Carolina State 41 28.0, 100 Indiana 38 30.5
38% 159 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 30 14.7, 119 Southern 19 18.5
38% 79 California 24 14.3, 44 Utah 21 17.7
37% 39 Auburn 35 18.1, 29 Mississippi 27 22.5
36% 209 Alabama State 35 26.6, 202 Alcorn State 28 31.7
36% 193 Central Michigan 17 25.9, 144 Akron 7 30.5
35% 167 Samford 19 26.3, 121 Murray State 17 31.6
33% 92 Cincinnati 12 22.5, 48 Syracuse 10 28.2
29% 142 Portland State 45 28.7, 116 Hawaii 20 37.1
29% 91 Troy State 34 15.8, 62 Appalachian State 28 23.0
26% 180 Northeastern 63 24.4, 107 Albany 14 34.0
25% 95 North Carolina 35 9.3, 66 Wake Forest 14 18.6
23% 35 Washington 34 20.3, 6 Miami - Florida 29 31.9
22% 155 Northern Illinois 52 23.9, 59 Illinois State 0 36.7
21% 213 California State - Nor 19 16.3, 173 Southwest Texas State 13 29.2
21% 207 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 30.5, 151 Southern Illinois 33 45.2
21% 178 Connecticut 37 25.2, 72 Colgate 3 40.6
21% 109 South Carolina 21 10.3, 31 Georgia 10 24.1
15% 161 Texas Southern 19 10.1, 49 Jackson State 15 34.6
13% 183 Holy Cross 38 13.2, 77 Georgetown 22 34.6
13% 179 San Jose State 40 23.9, 34 Stanford 27 54.2
10% 220 Fordham 34 11.7, 55 Fairfield 7 46.3
9% 131 Ohio 23 10.7, 15 Minnesota 17 41.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.13 16 0.78 30 0.88 24 1.03 14 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 92 66 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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