rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 75 Appalachian State over 218 The Citadel 42 Boise State over 191 Central Michigan 35 Georgia over 167 New Mexico State 2 Kansas State over 211 North Texas 74 Miami - Ohio over 195 Kent State 169 Grambling over 233 Mississippi Valley State 4 Nebraska over 117 Iowa 94 New Hampshire over 208 Dartmouth 10 Oklahoma over 121 Rice 175 Alabama A&M over 235 Prairie View 5 Tennessee over 197 Northeast Louisiana 152 Eastern Illinois over 237 Tennessee - Martin 29 Texas Christian over 158 Arkansas State 149 Valparaiso over 232 Austin Peay 40 Furman over 231 Virginia Military 99 Western Illinois over 227 Nicholls State 80-90% chance of victory: 129 Saint John's over 221 Sacred Heart 123 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 205 Alabama State 143 McNeese State over 215 Alcorn State 54 Arizona State over 145 Utah State 28 Auburn over 91 Northern Illinois 85 South Florida over 190 Baylor 59 Brigham Young over 131 Nevada - Las Vegas 166 Bowling Green over 229 Buffalo 55 Yale over 165 Cornell 138 Eastern Kentucky over 200 Tennessee Tech 7 Florida over 58 Kentucky 1 Florida State over 32 Louisville 109 Georgetown over 214 Butler 70 Hofstra over 173 Rhode Island 164 Sacramento State over 225 Idaho State 86 Maryland over 181 Middle Tennessee State 154 Murray State over 212 Indiana State 22 Oregon over 53 California - Los Angeles 115 Pennsylvania over 182 Lafayette 51 Pittsburgh over 126 Rutgers 47 Lehigh over 183 Princeton 196 Stony Brook over 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 24 Southern California over 96 San Jose State 21 Texas over 116 Houston 92 Vanderbilt over 186 Duke 8 Clemson over 64 Virginia 136 Eastern Washington over 219 Weber State 15 Wisconsin over 82 Northwestern 107 Wyoming over 185 Nevada - Reno 20 Florida A&M over 95 Tennessee State 70-80% chance of victory: 17 Arkansas over 38 Alabama 66 Boston College over 137 Navy 100 Bucknell over 176 Columbia 128 Wofford over 201 Charleston Southern 140 Colgate over 202 Fordham 132 Dayton over 168 Morehead State 88 Duquesne over 162 Marist 25 East Carolina over 56 Syracuse 160 Hampton over 184 Southern Utah 189 Howard over 217 Morgan State 106 Kansas over 153 Southern Illinois 203 La Salle over 213 Siena 44 Louisiana State over 97 Alabama - Birmingham 194 Monmouth over 224 Central Connecticut 11 Marshall over 73 North Carolina 76 Ohio over 146 Akron 6 Southern Mississippi over 52 Oklahoma State 69 Oregon State over 90 San Diego State 19 Purdue over 37 Minnesota 13 Mississippi State over 62 South Carolina 84 Western Kentucky over 188 Southeast Missouri State 147 Northwestern State over 207 Southwestern Louisiana 124 Temple over 174 Eastern Michigan 49 Georgia Southern over 122 Tennessee - Chattanooga 130 Texas - El Paso over 156 Hawaii 105 Villanova over 161 Maine 9 Miami - Florida over 46 West Virginia 163 East Tennessee State over 223 Western Carolina 71 Jackson State over 139 Southern 60-70% chance of victory: 180 Samford over 216 Jacksonville State 159 Wagner over 187 Albany 77 Memphis State over 142 Army 125 Brown over 150 Harvard 102 Central Florida over 110 William & Mary 113 Northeastern over 151 Connecticut 68 Fresno State over 65 California 108 Towson over 144 Holy Cross 14 Michigan State over 23 Notre Dame 206 California Poly over 228 Montana State 98 North Carolina A&T over 93 Elon 16 Ohio State over 30 Penn State 43 Air Force over 81 Utah 80 Washington State over 111 Idaho 50-60% chance of victory: 36 Georgia Tech over 60 North Carolina State 193 Liberty over 209 Delaware State 12 Michigan over 26 Illinois 72 Cincinnati over 89 Indiana 135 New Mexico over 127 Northern Arizona 112 Stephen F. Austin over 133 Northern Iowa 157 Southern Methodist over 141 Tulane 119 Louisiana Tech over 155 Tulsa 63 Western Michigan over 50 Toledo
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