prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 175 Alabama A&M 49 39.4, 235 Prairie View 10 6.2
92% 152 Eastern Illinois 42 58.8, 237 Tennessee - Martin 7 13.4
92% 99 Western Illinois 44 43.6, 227 Nicholls State 3 4.6
92% 75 Appalachian State 61 36.4, 218 The Citadel 14 3.5
92% 40 Furman 35 54.8, 231 Virginia Military 21 6.3
92% 35 Georgia 37 38.6, 167 New Mexico State 0 8.9
92% 10 Oklahoma 42 41.4, 121 Rice 14 9.6
92% 5 Tennessee 70 55.8, 197 Northeast Louisiana 3 4.0
92% 4 Nebraska 42 44.0, 117 Iowa 13 4.6
92% 2 Kansas State 55 57.9, 211 North Texas 10 -0.5
91% 42 Boise State 47 38.1, 191 Central Michigan 10 12.8
91% 29 Texas Christian 52 42.6, 158 Arkansas State 3 15.3
90% 169 Grambling 49 40.9, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 15.1
90% 149 Valparaiso 35 44.4, 232 Austin Peay 28 10.3
90% 94 New Hampshire 42 37.9, 208 Dartmouth 21 9.9
90% 74 Miami - Ohio 45 41.2, 195 Kent State 14 16.2
90% 21 Texas 48 39.1, 116 Houston 0 15.1
89% 196 Stony Brook 60 29.4, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 6.7
88% 47 Lehigh 20 35.7, 183 Princeton 18 12.0
87% 86 Maryland 45 36.3, 181 Middle Tennessee State 27 15.5
87% 70 Hofstra 30 29.5, 173 Rhode Island 12 6.7
86% 92 Vanderbilt 26 29.5, 186 Duke 7 9.2
86% 24 Southern California 34 37.2, 96 San Jose State 24 16.7
85% 154 Murray State 41 40.0, 212 Indiana State 24 22.0
85% 109 Georgetown 57 43.4, 214 Butler 56 18.6
85% 54 Arizona State 44 29.1, 145 Utah State 20 11.4
85% 7 Florida 59 37.9, 58 Kentucky 31 17.4
84% 136 Eastern Washington 27 31.4, 219 Weber State 24 14.8
84% 1 Florida State 31 44.7, 32 Louisville 0 20.3
83% 20 Florida A&M 31 47.2, 95 Tennessee State 6 30.5
82% 28 Auburn 31 34.7, 91 Northern Illinois 14 17.2
82% 8 Clemson 31 37.4, 64 Virginia 10 21.2
81% 143 McNeese State 41 31.0, 215 Alcorn State 12 17.2
81% 115 Pennsylvania 45 25.8, 182 Lafayette 28 11.0
81% 51 Pittsburgh 29 29.9, 126 Rutgers 17 13.3
80% 194 Monmouth 28 23.4, 224 Central Connecticut 0 9.5
80% 100 Bucknell 12 32.4, 176 Columbia 10 16.2
80% 66 Boston College 48 30.2, 137 Navy 7 15.2
80% 59 Brigham Young 10 35.1, 131 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 18.4
80% 22 Oregon 29 34.4, 53 California - Los Angel 10 20.0
79% 9 Miami - Florida 47 35.8, 46 West Virginia 10 23.0
78% 124 Temple 49 26.1, 174 Eastern Michigan 40 14.6
78% 88 Duquesne 49 33.8, 162 Marist 7 18.8
78% 71 Jackson State 13 32.6, 139 Southern 10 19.9
78% 6 Southern Mississippi 28 24.0, 52 Oklahoma State 6 10.6
77% 140 Colgate 21 37.3, 202 Fordham 6 20.9
77% 106 Kansas 42 40.5, 153 Southern Illinois 0 29.7
77% 25 East Carolina 34 26.7, 56 Syracuse 17 15.8
76% 189 Howard 35 34.9, 217 Morgan State 23 23.7
76% 105 Villanova 47 35.6, 161 Maine 21 23.0
76% 17 Arkansas 28 28.6, 38 Alabama 21 17.3
75% 147 Northwestern State 23 25.4, 207 Southwestern Louisiana 21 15.8
75% 128 Wofford 24 28.6, 201 Charleston Southern 10 17.9
74% 84 Western Kentucky 38 29.8, 188 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 13.9
73% 132 Dayton 55 38.9, 168 Morehead State 14 29.8
73% 69 Oregon State 35 22.0, 90 San Diego State 3 13.9
71% 203 La Salle 28 17.0, 213 Siena 15 11.2
71% 160 Hampton 42 28.8, 184 Southern Utah 34 20.6
71% 49 Georgia Southern 31 35.2, 122 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 24.2
71% 19 Purdue 38 26.6, 37 Minnesota 24 17.7
70% 130 Texas - El Paso 39 36.4, 156 Hawaii 7 29.2
69% 77 Memphis State 26 20.8, 142 Army 16 14.5
68% 16 Ohio State 45 20.1, 30 Penn State 6 14.3
67% 206 California Poly 35 24.8, 228 Montana State 14 18.5
67% 14 Michigan State 27 26.2, 23 Notre Dame 21 19.6
64% 68 Fresno State 17 20.5, 65 California 3 16.4
63% 102 Central Florida 52 24.4, 110 William & Mary 7 20.5
63% 43 Air Force 23 25.0, 81 Utah 14 19.9
62% 159 Wagner 38 29.8, 187 Albany 30 25.7
61% 113 Northeastern 35 30.8, 151 Connecticut 27 27.6
56% 135 New Mexico 35 27.8, 127 Northern Arizona 28 26.6
55% 63 Western Michigan 21 23.4, 50 Toledo 14 22.3
52% 12 Michigan 35 25.8, 26 Illinois 31 25.5
49% 141 Tulane 29 26.2, 157 Southern Methodist 17 26.5
47% 155 Tulsa 22 36.5, 119 Louisiana Tech 10 37.0
46% 133 Northern Iowa 37 24.5, 112 Stephen F. Austin 30 25.4
44% 89 Indiana 42 31.9, 72 Cincinnati 6 33.3
41% 209 Delaware State 42 26.4, 193 Liberty 25 28.3
40% 144 Holy Cross 17 23.5, 108 Towson 14 26.0
40% 60 North Carolina State 30 28.9, 36 Georgia Tech 23 31.1
38% 93 Elon 13 10.4, 98 North Carolina A&T 0 13.0
35% 216 Jacksonville State 36 17.2, 180 Samford 16 22.9
31% 150 Harvard 42 24.0, 125 Brown 37 30.8
31% 111 Idaho 38 22.4, 80 Washington State 34 30.7
22% 73 North Carolina 20 16.5, 11 Marshall 15 30.6
22% 62 South Carolina 23 8.5, 13 Mississippi State 19 19.0
21% 223 Western Carolina 39 18.3, 163 East Tennessee State 27 31.1
21% 97 Alabama - Birmingham 13 13.3, 44 Louisiana State 10 25.2
20% 146 Akron 23 21.3, 76 Ohio 20 37.1
19% 200 Tennessee Tech 9 11.9, 138 Eastern Kentucky 3 27.3
18% 225 Idaho State 41 24.6, 164 Sacramento State 39 41.8
18% 205 Alabama State 37 19.0, 123 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 34 33.9
18% 165 Cornell 24 16.2, 55 Yale 23 33.2
17% 185 Nevada - Reno 35 20.6, 107 Wyoming 28 39.0
17% 82 Northwestern 47 7.2, 15 Wisconsin 44 29.2
16% 190 Baylor 28 9.3, 85 South Florida 13 26.4
15% 229 Buffalo 20 18.9, 166 Bowling Green 17 36.9
12% 221 Sacred Heart 27 4.0, 129 Saint John's 6 27.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.61 14 0.99 29 1.09 30 0.83 16 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 98 73 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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