rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 1 Florida State over 88 Maryland 177 Alabama A&M over 233 Mississippi Valley State 6 Clemson over 194 Duke 15 Florida A&M over 196 Howard 73 Furman over 215 Western Carolina 43 Georgia Southern over 229 Virginia Military 92 Idaho over 232 Montana State 25 Marshall over 225 Buffalo 13 Texas Christian over 158 Navy 5 Nebraska over 87 Missouri 123 North Carolina A&T over 227 Norfolk State 162 Grambling over 234 Prairie View 4 Miami - Florida over 107 Rutgers 85 Robert Morris over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 7 Southern Mississippi over 98 Memphis State 172 Tennessee Tech over 237 Tennessee - Martin 56 Toledo over 189 Central Michigan 96 Western Illinois over 221 Indiana State 80-90% chance of victory: 26 Auburn over 94 Vanderbilt 86 Northern Illinois over 204 Ball State 66 Iowa State over 151 Baylor 3 Virginia Tech over 45 Boston College 157 Saint John's over 230 Central Connecticut 2 Kansas State over 35 Colorado 30 Delaware over 97 Northeastern 101 Drake over 179 San Diego 72 Appalachian State over 174 East Tennessee State 68 Lehigh over 150 Cornell 8 Tennessee over 55 Louisiana State 33 Louisville over 140 Connecticut 40 Colorado State over 156 Nevada - Reno 11 Oklahoma over 77 Kansas 106 Pennsylvania over 218 Dartmouth 166 Sacramento State over 216 Weber State 200 Samford over 228 Nicholls State 134 Southern over 202 Alabama State 12 Texas over 69 Oklahoma State 112 Texas - El Paso over 178 New Mexico State 20 Texas A&M over 84 Texas Tech 129 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 219 Alcorn State 70-80% chance of victory: 57 West Virginia over 131 Temple 62 Miami - Ohio over 114 Akron 24 Arkansas over 29 Georgia 93 Dayton over 191 Butler 79 California over 102 Washington State 170 Eastern Kentucky over 205 Southeast Missouri State 82 Central Florida over 169 Eastern Michigan 53 Montana over 141 Eastern Washington 124 Fairfield over 188 Iona 135 Georgetown over 195 Fordham 67 Indiana over 105 Iowa 120 Harvard over 184 Lafayette 14 Michigan over 34 Wisconsin 17 Michigan State over 52 Northwestern 31 Mississippi over 65 Kentucky 60 Western Kentucky over 149 Murray State 44 Air Force over 128 Nevada - Las Vegas 133 Northern Iowa over 185 Illinois State 144 Northwestern State over 192 Gardner - Webb 80 San Jose State over 126 Rice 59 Syracuse over 78 Brigham Young 99 Towson over 147 Colgate 47 Western Michigan over 89 Ohio 74 Yale over 118 Holy Cross 161 Bethune - Cookman over 211 Morgan State 60-70% chance of victory: 121 Richmond over 165 Arkansas State 70 Duquesne over 109 Bucknell 213 California State - North over 222 Idaho State 152 Columbia over 167 Princeton 138 Tulsa over 182 Hawaii 139 Houston over 153 Southern Methodist 220 Jacksonville over 226 Austin Peay 108 James Madison over 100 New Hampshire 54 Massachusetts over 75 Hofstra 9 Florida over 21 Mississippi State 163 Monmouth over 180 Sacred Heart 132 New Mexico over 136 Wyoming 36 Georgia Tech over 61 North Carolina 91 Portland State over 127 Northern Arizona 18 Oregon over 19 Washington 16 Purdue over 46 Penn State 217 Siena over 231 Saint Peter's 51 Troy State over 104 South Florida 186 Southern Utah over 208 California Poly 103 Youngstown State over 143 Southwest Missouri State 95 Utah over 148 Utah State 173 Valparaiso over 190 Morehead State 154 Wagner over 176 Marist 71 Virginia over 115 Wake Forest 117 Wofford over 130 Tennessee - Chattanooga 50-60% chance of victory: 39 Alabama over 41 South Carolina 58 California - Los Angeles over 48 Arizona State 206 Charleston Southern over 198 Jacksonville State 164 Hampton over 187 Delaware State 199 Kent State over 183 Bowling Green 146 William & Mary over 168 Maine 28 Illinois over 42 Minnesota 203 Southwest Texas State over 214 Northeast Louisiana 27 Southern California over 50 Oregon State 137 Brown over 160 Rhode Island 38 Stanford over 37 Arizona 201 Stony Brook over 193 Albany 210 South Carolina State over 224 The Citadel 122 Tulane over 116 Cincinnati
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