prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 177 Alabama A&M 26 46.2, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 11.8
92% 172 Tennessee Tech 46 48.8, 237 Tennessee - Martin 6 3.5
92% 162 Grambling 47 44.8, 234 Prairie View 7 7.1
92% 96 Western Illinois 49 43.9, 221 Indiana State 7 12.3
92% 92 Idaho 56 52.2, 232 Montana State 7 10.9
92% 85 Robert Morris 63 54.9, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 4.7
92% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 47 36.1, 209 Southwestern Louisiana 2 4.9
92% 73 Furman 38 44.1, 215 Western Carolina 14 9.8
92% 56 Toledo 41 33.6, 189 Central Michigan 0 3.9
92% 43 Georgia Southern 56 57.3, 229 Virginia Military 3 5.1
92% 25 Marshall 47 56.7, 225 Buffalo 14 2.4
92% 15 Florida A&M 43 58.4, 196 Howard 0 15.6
92% 13 Texas Christian 24 41.7, 158 Navy 0 6.8
92% 6 Clemson 52 53.5, 194 Duke 22 6.2
92% 5 Nebraska 42 43.4, 87 Missouri 24 12.7
92% 4 Miami - Florida 64 46.3, 107 Rutgers 6 15.0
92% 1 Florida State 59 43.3, 88 Maryland 7 9.8
91% 123 North Carolina A&T 16 28.0, 227 Norfolk State 0 2.4
90% 106 Pennsylvania 48 40.6, 218 Dartmouth 14 15.0
90% 7 Southern Mississippi 24 27.1, 98 Memphis State 3 1.5
88% 86 Northern Illinois 43 34.3, 204 Ball State 14 13.8
88% 33 Louisville 41 43.6, 140 Connecticut 22 19.4
88% 20 Texas A&M 33 27.8, 84 Texas Tech 15 7.9
88% 2 Kansas State 44 35.4, 35 Colorado 21 14.9
87% 68 Lehigh 35 33.6, 150 Cornell 16 14.3
87% 11 Oklahoma 34 38.8, 77 Kansas 16 15.9
87% 3 Virginia Tech 48 41.6, 45 Boston College 34 20.9
86% 129 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 32 35.5, 219 Alcorn State 10 16.3
86% 40 Colorado State 45 38.3, 156 Nevada - Reno 14 18.4
86% 12 Texas 42 35.0, 69 Oklahoma State 7 13.8
85% 30 Delaware 42 38.3, 97 Northeastern 0 19.6
84% 200 Samford 28 25.7, 228 Nicholls State 10 9.9
84% 101 Drake 52 27.8, 179 San Diego 12 10.7
84% 26 Auburn 33 30.8, 94 Vanderbilt 0 13.1
81% 112 Texas - El Paso 41 33.5, 178 New Mexico State 31 18.1
81% 72 Appalachian State 30 37.0, 174 East Tennessee State 13 20.5
81% 66 Iowa State 31 29.8, 151 Baylor 17 15.5
80% 166 Sacramento State 35 35.0, 216 Weber State 7 19.9
80% 144 Northwestern State 57 23.5, 192 Gardner - Webb 17 11.0
80% 82 Central Florida 31 35.6, 169 Eastern Michigan 10 21.0
79% 133 Northern Iowa 34 31.9, 185 Illinois State 28 18.9
78% 80 San Jose State 29 36.5, 126 Rice 16 23.7
78% 74 Yale 33 29.4, 118 Holy Cross 27 16.9
78% 67 Indiana 45 34.7, 105 Iowa 33 22.7
78% 53 Montana 41 33.6, 141 Eastern Washington 31 19.5
77% 124 Fairfield 55 30.6, 188 Iona 7 15.9
77% 93 Dayton 43 43.0, 191 Butler 26 28.4
77% 60 Western Kentucky 48 33.4, 149 Murray State 38 19.2
76% 161 Bethune - Cookman 42 29.2, 211 Morgan State 6 19.0
76% 57 West Virginia 29 28.9, 131 Temple 24 18.8
76% 47 Western Michigan 23 30.1, 89 Ohio 10 18.6
75% 170 Eastern Kentucky 48 28.1, 205 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 17.8
75% 14 Michigan 13 31.8, 34 Wisconsin 10 20.9
73% 31 Mississippi 35 34.1, 65 Kentucky 17 24.7
72% 120 Harvard 42 31.9, 184 Lafayette 19 22.6
72% 59 Syracuse 42 26.2, 78 Brigham Young 14 18.2
70% 186 Southern Utah 42 33.0, 208 California Poly 13 25.2
68% 220 Jacksonville 28 35.5, 226 Austin Peay 24 27.9
67% 139 Houston 17 20.0, 153 Southern Methodist 15 14.6
66% 95 Utah 35 26.0, 148 Utah State 14 20.2
66% 71 Virginia 27 25.7, 115 Wake Forest 10 20.2
64% 138 Tulsa 24 26.1, 182 Hawaii 14 21.1
64% 121 Richmond 30 24.9, 165 Arkansas State 27 20.3
64% 117 Wofford 41 28.0, 130 Tennessee - Chattanoog 33 22.9
63% 18 Oregon 23 26.8, 19 Washington 16 22.2
62% 103 Youngstown State 19 24.3, 143 Southwest Missouri Sta 13 20.8
62% 91 Portland State 42 37.6, 127 Northern Arizona 10 34.5
61% 132 New Mexico 45 26.1, 136 Wyoming 10 23.1
61% 36 Georgia Tech 42 27.8, 61 North Carolina 28 24.7
60% 137 Brown 29 23.9, 160 Rhode Island 19 21.8
60% 108 James Madison 24 21.6, 100 New Hampshire 13 19.2
59% 122 Tulane 24 29.2, 116 Cincinnati 19 27.2
59% 58 California - Los Angel 38 22.2, 48 Arizona State 31 20.5
59% 39 Alabama 27 18.7, 41 South Carolina 17 16.7
56% 164 Hampton 54 30.8, 187 Delaware State 28 29.4
55% 146 William & Mary 31 32.0, 168 Maine 28 31.0
51% 203 Southwest Texas State 27 16.3, 214 Northeast Louisiana 7 16.2
47% 50 Oregon State 31 19.8, 27 Southern California 21 20.3
46% 42 Minnesota 44 24.3, 28 Illinois 10 25.1
43% 183 Bowling Green 18 26.5, 199 Kent State 11 27.9
43% 37 Arizona 27 20.7, 38 Stanford 3 22.4
42% 193 Albany 47 32.4, 201 Stony Brook 14 34.3
41% 224 The Citadel 45 19.2, 210 South Carolina State 16 20.8
38% 21 Mississippi State 47 22.9, 9 Florida 35 26.9
35% 180 Sacred Heart 13 13.7, 163 Monmouth 7 19.1
35% 176 Marist 34 16.2, 154 Wagner 31 21.4
35% 109 Bucknell 35 20.7, 70 Duquesne 14 26.0
33% 167 Princeton 27 17.9, 152 Columbia 24 24.2
32% 222 Idaho State 31 30.9, 213 California State - Nor 30 38.4
32% 190 Morehead State 28 28.1, 173 Valparaiso 24 34.7
32% 46 Penn State 22 18.6, 16 Purdue 20 25.1
31% 231 Saint Peter's 23 7.1, 217 Siena 13 11.3
30% 114 Akron 37 23.5, 62 Miami - Ohio 20 30.6
30% 104 South Florida 20 17.1, 51 Troy State 10 24.1
30% 75 Hofstra 51 23.3, 54 Massachusetts 36 30.9
29% 29 Georgia 38 18.3, 24 Arkansas 7 25.7
25% 147 Colgate 30 16.4, 99 Towson 27 27.7
24% 102 Washington State 21 12.3, 79 California 17 20.8
21% 128 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 13.5, 44 Air Force 13 28.4
20% 195 Fordham 17 21.5, 135 Georgetown 10 36.2
20% 52 Northwestern 37 18.2, 17 Michigan State 17 34.1
18% 202 Alabama State 37 20.1, 134 Southern 33 36.5
15% 55 Louisiana State 38 13.4, 8 Tennessee 31 31.1
12% 230 Central Connecticut 15 6.7, 157 Saint John's 13 25.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.95 25 0.86 25 0.94 22 1.01 19 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 77 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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