rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 69 Air Force over 183 Navy 163 Albany over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 43 Arkansas over 223 Northeast Louisiana 96 Dayton over 227 Austin Peay 207 La Salle over 237 Canisius 73 Yale over 214 Dartmouth 41 Toledo over 175 Eastern Michigan 94 Elon over 206 Gardner - Webb 3 Kansas State over 80 Kansas 84 Miami - Ohio over 195 Ball State 29 Mississippi over 149 Arkansas State 137 Eastern Washington over 232 Montana State 133 North Carolina A&T over 217 Morgan State 78 Ohio over 224 Buffalo 218 Alcorn State over 234 Prairie View 12 Delaware over 129 Richmond 5 Southern Mississippi over 101 South Florida 148 Murray State over 235 Tennessee - Martin 8 Texas Christian over 181 Hawaii 119 Wofford over 231 Virginia Military 4 Virginia Tech over 130 Temple 42 Georgia Southern over 201 Western Carolina 11 Florida A&M over 174 Grambling 80-90% chance of victory: 93 Brigham Young over 157 Utah State 140 Bethune - Cookman over 204 Delaware State 47 Boston College over 143 Connecticut 6 Clemson over 46 North Carolina State 38 Colorado State over 113 New Mexico 76 Drake over 186 Valparaiso 152 Southwest Missouri State over 219 Indiana State 22 East Carolina over 91 Memphis State 53 Montana over 159 Sacramento State 92 Nevada - Las Vegas over 168 Nevada - Reno 71 Robert Morris over 179 Saint John's 97 Fairfield over 229 Siena 185 Southwest Texas State over 230 Nicholls State 124 Tulane over 208 Southwestern Louisiana 147 Wagner over 221 Stony Brook 62 Western Kentucky over 154 Eastern Kentucky 88 Jackson State over 182 Alabama State 70-80% chance of victory: 68 Fresno State over 128 Rice 141 Southern over 192 Alabama A&M 54 Appalachian State over 83 Furman 52 Arizona State over 86 California 100 Akron over 178 Bowling Green 198 Charleston Southern over 220 Jacksonville 110 Cincinnati over 138 Houston 125 Colgate over 161 Princeton 145 Columbia over 191 Lafayette 17 Florida over 37 Louisiana State 77 Bucknell over 151 Georgetown 108 Harvard over 150 Cornell 153 Northern Arizona over 210 Idaho State 106 Youngstown State over 188 Illinois State 34 Michigan State over 111 Iowa 7 Nebraska over 56 Iowa State 25 Minnesota over 51 Penn State 31 Northwestern over 61 Indiana 59 Troy State over 112 Northwestern State 27 Notre Dame over 70 Stanford 197 San Diego over 222 Central Connecticut 99 Western Illinois over 187 Southern Illinois 82 San Jose State over 155 Southern Methodist 171 Tennessee Tech over 205 Southeast Missouri State 20 Texas A&M over 35 Colorado 109 Texas Southern over 132 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 85 Texas Tech over 142 Baylor 64 Virginia over 103 Maryland 18 Washington over 44 Oregon State 33 Boise State over 87 Washington State 60 West Virginia over 90 Idaho 60-70% chance of victory: 30 Marshall over 39 Western Michigan 211 California Poly over 216 Saint Mary's 193 Central Michigan over 200 Kent State 173 Davidson over 184 Morehead State 134 Brown over 162 Fordham 212 Iona over 225 Saint Peter's 104 James Madison over 102 Villanova 45 South Carolina over 75 Kentucky 144 Louisiana Tech over 177 Middle Tennessee State 19 Mississippi State over 24 Auburn 226 Norfolk State over 228 South Carolina State 67 Northern Illinois over 57 Central Florida 23 Purdue over 26 Michigan 21 Arizona over 40 Southern California 50 Syracuse over 65 Pittsburgh 176 East Tennessee State over 202 The Citadel 72 Lehigh over 115 Towson 127 Tulsa over 120 Texas - El Paso 146 William & Mary over 170 Rhode Island 10 Ohio State over 28 Wisconsin 121 San Diego State over 165 Wyoming 9 Texas over 14 Oklahoma 50-60% chance of victory: 203 North Texas over 194 Samford 215 Weber State over 213 California State - North 36 Louisville over 58 Alabama - Birmingham 107 Tennessee State over 136 Eastern Illinois 15 Georgia over 13 Tennessee 123 Holy Cross over 105 Pennsylvania 190 Jacksonville State over 180 Sam Houston State 117 McNeese State over 116 Stephen F. Austin 2 Miami - Florida over 1 Florida State 89 Missouri over 79 Oklahoma State 164 New Mexico State over 158 Army 98 Massachusetts over 122 Northeastern 66 Portland State over 63 Hofstra 135 Wake Forest over 114 Vanderbilt
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