prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 207 La Salle 23 33.0, 237 Canisius 10 5.5
92% 163 Albany 52 53.2, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 4.1
92% 148 Murray State 48 61.8, 235 Tennessee - Martin 3 18.9
92% 137 Eastern Washington 20 43.1, 232 Montana State 14 10.3
92% 119 Wofford 45 45.0, 231 Virginia Military 28 16.6
92% 78 Ohio 42 47.3, 224 Buffalo 20 5.6
92% 73 Yale 24 45.2, 214 Dartmouth 14 15.6
92% 43 Arkansas 52 54.3, 223 Northeast Louisiana 6 3.4
92% 42 Georgia Southern 42 43.0, 201 Western Carolina 24 10.1
92% 8 Texas Christian 41 49.7, 181 Hawaii 21 3.4
92% 5 Southern Mississippi 41 29.9, 101 South Florida 7 1.8
92% 4 Virginia Tech 35 56.7, 130 Temple 14 11.1
92% 3 Kansas State 52 42.7, 80 Kansas 13 14.2
91% 96 Dayton 42 46.2, 227 Austin Peay 7 16.6
91% 94 Elon 41 32.2, 206 Gardner - Webb 17 3.5
91% 41 Toledo 42 39.2, 175 Eastern Michigan 14 12.7
91% 29 Mississippi 35 42.0, 149 Arkansas State 10 16.3
91% 12 Delaware 24 37.3, 129 Richmond 17 8.8
90% 133 North Carolina A&T 33 26.9, 217 Morgan State 6 3.6
90% 69 Air Force 27 33.1, 183 Navy 13 7.3
89% 97 Fairfield 56 41.6, 229 Siena 28 7.9
89% 76 Drake 54 38.0, 186 Valparaiso 7 12.1
89% 71 Robert Morris 43 27.2, 179 Saint John's 6 4.1
89% 53 Montana 24 43.6, 159 Sacramento State 20 20.2
88% 185 Southwest Texas State 25 23.7, 230 Nicholls State 0 3.7
88% 47 Boston College 55 42.1, 143 Connecticut 3 19.9
88% 6 Clemson 34 38.9, 46 North Carolina State 27 18.1
86% 62 Western Kentucky 6 34.6, 154 Eastern Kentucky 3 12.7
86% 38 Colorado State 17 30.5, 113 New Mexico 14 12.3
85% 147 Wagner 35 37.4, 221 Stony Brook 9 16.4
84% 140 Bethune - Cookman 41 40.7, 204 Delaware State 20 22.1
84% 92 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 35.8, 168 Nevada - Reno 0 17.3
82% 124 Tulane 38 35.8, 208 Southwestern Louisiana 37 20.5
82% 93 Brigham Young 38 33.5, 157 Utah State 14 17.8
80% 152 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 32.4, 219 Indiana State 7 18.4
80% 99 Western Illinois 42 33.1, 187 Southern Illinois 17 19.3
80% 85 Texas Tech 28 27.9, 142 Baylor 0 13.1
80% 7 Nebraska 49 33.0, 56 Iowa State 27 18.9
79% 145 Columbia 47 34.0, 191 Lafayette 22 20.2
79% 27 Notre Dame 20 31.3, 70 Stanford 14 17.9
78% 106 Youngstown State 14 28.0, 188 Illinois State 12 16.1
78% 100 Akron 27 31.9, 178 Bowling Green 21 19.9
78% 18 Washington 33 28.4, 44 Oregon State 30 16.6
77% 171 Tennessee Tech 31 28.0, 205 Southeast Missouri Sta 6 15.6
77% 82 San Jose State 35 28.6, 155 Southern Methodist 10 17.7
77% 77 Bucknell 24 27.8, 151 Georgetown 10 17.4
77% 64 Virginia 31 28.6, 103 Maryland 23 18.1
77% 17 Florida 41 33.8, 37 Louisiana State 9 21.9
76% 197 San Diego 38 27.0, 222 Central Connecticut 20 16.3
76% 125 Colgate 34 26.8, 161 Princeton 6 16.6
76% 25 Minnesota 25 23.7, 51 Penn State 16 14.3
75% 198 Charleston Southern 28 24.8, 220 Jacksonville 22 15.9
75% 60 West Virginia 28 36.6, 90 Idaho 16 27.8
75% 54 Appalachian State 18 29.1, 83 Furman 17 19.7
75% 52 Arizona State 30 21.3, 86 California 10 13.1
75% 31 Northwestern 52 42.8, 61 Indiana 33 33.9
73% 109 Texas Southern 21 19.8, 132 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 18 12.6
71% 110 Cincinnati 48 21.3, 138 Houston 31 14.5
71% 68 Fresno State 27 25.0, 128 Rice 24 18.1
70% 141 Southern 31 21.5, 192 Alabama A&M 20 15.1
70% 50 Syracuse 24 22.1, 65 Pittsburgh 17 15.7
68% 146 William & Mary 26 22.5, 170 Rhode Island 16 16.2
67% 19 Mississippi State 17 27.9, 24 Auburn 10 21.7
66% 212 Iona 39 21.5, 225 Saint Peter's 7 15.7
66% 23 Purdue 32 28.1, 26 Michigan 31 22.5
64% 226 Norfolk State 24 25.3, 228 South Carolina State 21 20.2
64% 121 San Diego State 34 21.3, 165 Wyoming 0 17.0
64% 72 Lehigh 42 24.9, 115 Towson 21 19.9
64% 10 Ohio State 23 26.0, 28 Wisconsin 7 20.9
63% 211 California Poly 41 23.7, 216 Saint Mary's 20 18.6
63% 173 Davidson 38 27.9, 184 Morehead State 31 22.8
62% 176 East Tennessee State 20 22.0, 202 The Citadel 7 18.7
62% 134 Brown 44 29.4, 162 Fordham 17 25.5
61% 104 James Madison 57 25.8, 102 Villanova 23 22.9
60% 215 Weber State 31 25.2, 213 California State - Nor 14 22.9
60% 164 New Mexico State 42 26.4, 158 Army 23 24.3
60% 117 McNeese State 37 26.6, 116 Stephen F. Austin 6 24.4
60% 67 Northern Illinois 40 21.0, 57 Central Florida 20 18.7
60% 66 Portland State 40 31.2, 63 Hofstra 35 29.1
60% 45 South Carolina 20 25.0, 75 Kentucky 17 22.4
60% 21 Arizona 31 17.8, 40 Southern California 15 15.4
60% 2 Miami - Florida 27 26.6, 1 Florida State 24 24.4
59% 36 Louisville 38 22.8, 58 Alabama - Birmingham 17 21.1
58% 98 Massachusetts 21 32.0, 122 Northeastern 16 30.2
57% 15 Georgia 21 21.8, 13 Tennessee 10 20.4
55% 89 Missouri 24 26.1, 79 Oklahoma State 10 25.1
51% 203 North Texas 31 12.4, 194 Samford 6 12.2
51% 123 Holy Cross 34 23.9, 105 Pennsylvania 17 23.8
50% 114 Vanderbilt 17 16.4, 135 Wake Forest 10 16.4
49% 180 Sam Houston State 26 21.5, 190 Jacksonville State 23 21.7
40% 177 Middle Tennessee State 49 33.4, 144 Louisiana Tech 21 35.9
40% 136 Eastern Illinois 33 29.3, 107 Tennessee State 19 31.8
40% 120 Texas - El Paso 40 27.7, 127 Tulsa 7 30.2
39% 14 Oklahoma 63 24.7, 9 Texas 14 27.9
32% 39 Western Michigan 30 18.8, 30 Marshall 10 25.4
31% 200 Kent State 24 15.2, 193 Central Michigan 21 21.5
28% 112 Northwestern State 24 22.2, 59 Troy State 17 30.0
27% 87 Washington State 42 24.9, 33 Boise State 35 33.4
27% 35 Colorado 26 17.0, 20 Texas A&M 19 25.2
25% 150 Cornell 29 20.3, 108 Harvard 28 31.3
23% 210 Idaho State 28 29.7, 153 Northern Arizona 21 40.6
21% 111 Iowa 21 16.4, 34 Michigan State 16 29.1
18% 91 Memphis State 17 9.0, 22 East Carolina 10 23.3
15% 182 Alabama State 35 22.2, 88 Jackson State 24 40.2
10% 234 Prairie View 25 13.7, 218 Alcorn State 22 37.5
9% 195 Ball State 15 14.1, 84 Miami - Ohio 10 40.0
8% 174 Grambling 12 7.3, 11 Florida A&M 10 51.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.39 22 1.21 31 1.06 17 0.96 23 0.95 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 107 87 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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