2000 Week 7 (12-14 Oct) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 160 Alabama State           51 48.3,   234 Prairie View            21 17.4
 92% 154 Monmouth                41 34.3,   237 Saint Francis - Pennsy   6 -0.2
 92% 143 Hampton                 47 35.0,   225 Norfolk State           19  6.8
 92% 132 Tennessee State         33 65.8,   236 Tennessee - Martin       6  4.6
 92% 131 Tennessee - Chattanoog  27 47.3,   226 Virginia Military       14 17.8
 92% 118 Jackson State           64 52.8,   233 Mississippi Valley Sta  20  9.6
 92% 104 Northwestern State      27 40.9,   231 Nicholls State          21  6.5
 92%  87 Fairfield               24 43.6,   232 Saint Peter's           10  2.2
 92%  77 Montana                 34 46.4,   215 California State - Nor  30 18.7
 92%  76 Furman                  33 36.6,   210 The Citadel              7  3.6
 92%  73 Bucknell                42 40.6,   202 Lafayette               30  8.0
 92%  68 Hofstra                 42 46.9,   213 Liberty                 14 10.2
 92%  56 Portland State          59 50.8,   206 Idaho State             21 17.1
 92%  31 East Carolina           42 44.5,   168 Army                    21 13.7
 92%  29 Notre Dame              45 37.1,   176 Navy                    14  5.6
 92%  23 Georgia Tech            52 41.0,   145 Wake Forest             20 11.1
 92%  11 Georgia                 29 31.0,   115 Vanderbilt              19  3.4
 92%   9 Clemson                 35 44.0,   101 Maryland                14 15.4
 92%   6 Southern Mississippi    56 45.1,   138 Tulane                  24 10.0
 92%   1 Florida State           63 65.9,   188 Duke                    14  1.6
 91% 147 Sacramento State        24 41.0,   230 Montana State           13 10.6
 91% 119 Bethune - Cookman       42 48.9,   229 South Carolina State    14 16.3
 91%  97 Elon                    43 30.8,   205 Samford                 21  3.8
 91%  62 Troy State              31 30.1,   180 Southwest Texas State    7  4.4
 90% 123 Texas Southern          16 35.4,   220 Alcorn State            13 10.3
 90%  89 McNeese State           28 36.4,   193 Jacksonville State       0 10.3
 90%  39 Boise State             41 43.6,   152 Eastern Washington      23 17.3
 90%  22 Texas A&M               24 34.5,   148 Baylor                   0  8.5
 90%  19 Delaware                28 40.2,   149 William & Mary          17 14.5
 89% 150 Middle Tennessee State  28 41.3,   223 Northeast Louisiana      0 18.1
 89%  80 Ohio                    44 38.0,   198 Kent State               7 15.5
 89%   7 Nebraska                56 34.5,    70 Texas Tech               3 13.3
 89%   5 Virginia Tech           48 41.0,    49 West Virginia           20 17.3
 87% 146 Wagner                  24 34.9,   224 Central Connecticut      7 15.8
 87%  75 Duquesne                44 40.0,   156 Georgetown              20 19.9
 86% 120 Wofford                 40 39.5,   194 Western Carolina        31 20.0
 86%  13 Arizona                 53 31.4,    71 Washington State        47 12.4
 85% 127 Towson                  38 35.7,   195 Howard                   6 16.9
 85%  94 Massachusetts           33 41.0,   179 Maine                   10 20.7
 85%  37 Colorado State          20 23.8,   110 Nevada - Las Vegas      19  6.0
 84%  91 Yale                    24 31.1,   182 Fordham                 17 15.1
 84%  83 Air Force               51 35.8,   187 Wyoming                 34 19.3
 84%  33 Louisville              38 36.3,   106 Cincinnati              24 17.6
 83%  69 Fresno State            58 32.7,   139 Nevada - Reno           21 15.3
 82% 107 Miami - Ohio            24 31.9,   178 Bowling Green           10 15.9
 82%  92 Idaho                   42 40.8,   155 Arkansas State          25 24.7
 82%  85 Western Kentucky        17 23.5,   151 Tennessee Tech          14  6.7
 81% 114 Youngstown State        28 31.8,   170 Northern Iowa           24 17.3
 80% 153 Sacred Heart            23 32.1,   222 Stony Brook              6 15.8
 80%  65 Central Florida         34 22.4,   126 Eastern Kentucky         3  8.8
 80%  44 Illinois                31 32.6,   103 Iowa                     0 18.1
 79%  24 Michigan                58 40.3,    67 Indiana                  0 27.5
 78% 158 Marist                  27 34.8,   197 Iona                     7 21.9
 78%  36 Oregon State            38 28.7,    63 Stanford                 6 17.4
 75% 199 Charleston Southern     42 28.2,   228 Austin Peay             20 18.8
 75%  28 Boston College          20 32.3,    52 Syracuse                13 22.6
 74%  18 Washington              21 29.9,    54 Arizona State           15 21.1
 73%  58 Lehigh                  45 29.8,   117 Harvard                 13 21.3
 71% 189 Louisiana Tech          48 33.9,   201 Southwestern Louisiana  14 25.9
 71% 183 Illinois State          21 26.6,   218 Indiana State            0 19.2
 71% 136 New Mexico State        42 23.9,   159 Tulsa                   28 16.1
 71%  55 Louisiana State         34 30.3,    82 Kentucky                 0 22.6
 71%  46 Northern Illinois       52 32.6,   109 Akron                   35 24.8
 71%  43 Georgia Southern        34 27.7,    61 Appalachian State       28 20.1
 70%  10 Florida                 38 29.0,    17 Auburn                   7 20.9
 69%  14 Oregon                  28 26.3,    42 Southern California     17 19.8
 68% 122 Pennsylvania            43 29.9,   142 Columbia                25 23.3
 68%  35 North Carolina State    38 28.5,    78 North Carolina          20 22.2
 67% 171 Ball State              33 27.2,   186 Eastern Michigan        14 20.4
 67% 121 Eastern Illinois        48 36.0,   141 Murray State             7 29.9
 67%  86 Western Illinois        14 25.2,   137 Southwest Missouri Sta  10 19.4
 65%  41 Toledo                  42 22.4,    53 Marshall                 0 17.0
 62% 165 Hawaii                  30 20.7,   166 Southern Methodist      15 17.3
 62%  59 Iowa State              33 27.5,   102 Oklahoma State          26 23.6
 61%  81 Alabama - Birmingham    13 11.8,    74 Memphis State            9  9.6
 60%  40 South Carolina          27 18.8,    38 Arkansas                 7 16.9
 59% 157 Davidson                27 22.0,   190 San Diego               13 19.8
 58%  60 Robert Morris           17 25.6,    88 Dayton                  13 24.0
 56% 200 Valparaiso              33 36.3,   192 Butler                   7 35.2
 56% 173 Albany                  27 22.2,   191 Saint John's             3 21.1
 54% 140 Grambling               24 18.9,   129 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   17 18.2

 49%  20 Purdue                  41 33.7,    30 Northwestern            28 33.9
 46% 125 Colgate                 23 24.9,   135 Cornell                 16 25.7
 42%  21 Texas                   28 23.6,    27 Colorado                14 25.2
 40% 174 Utah State              17 17.3,   184 North Texas             12 19.2
 40% 128 Villanova               34 28.5,   133 Northeastern            20 31.0
 40% 113 Temple                  48 20.1,   124 Rutgers                 14 22.4
 40%  84 Kansas                  38 25.1,    90 Missouri                17 27.2
 40%  45 Alabama                 45 21.8,    32 Mississippi              7 24.2
 40%  34 Wisconsin               17 18.5,    47 Michigan State          10 20.5
 37% 175 Sam Houston State       52 21.3,   164 Stephen F. Austin       41 25.9
 37% 116 Richmond                31 18.3,   111 New Hampshire           10 22.3
 37%  98 Utah                    21 12.2,    96 San Diego State          7 15.4
 34% 100 California              46 15.6,    51 California - Los Angel  38 20.4
 29%  95 Texas - El Paso         47 30.4,    66 San Jose State          30 37.6
 26%   4 Oklahoma                41 27.9,     3 Kansas State            31 36.7
 24% 177 Princeton               55 21.4,   108 Brown                   28 32.2
 20% 208 Weber State             12 18.8,   163 Northern Arizona        10 32.5
 20%  26 Minnesota               29 15.8,     8 Ohio State              17 29.6
 18% 172 Rhode Island             7  9.3,    79 James Madison            6 25.3
 17% 134 North Carolina A&T      30  6.0,    57 Florida A&M             10 23.2
 16% 207 Dartmouth               31 18.1,   112 Holy Cross              14 35.3
  9% 196 Southern Illinois       35 16.1,    48 Drake                   23 44.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               12 0.88  18 0.95  19 0.99  26 1.04  28 1.05   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103  81 1.01
  
  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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