prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 159 Illinois State 64 44.9, 234 Prairie View 0 3.5
92% 141 Texas Southern 30 47.6, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 6.8
92% 139 Eastern Kentucky 27 46.7, 236 Tennessee - Martin 0 5.3
92% 129 Wagner 35 52.1, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 5.0
92% 91 Marshall 34 39.9, 209 Kent State 12 9.0
92% 71 Florida A&M 42 43.1, 224 Norfolk State 14 7.2
92% 67 Ohio 52 40.3, 210 Central Michigan 3 4.4
92% 61 Robert Morris 41 48.9, 222 Central Connecticut 3 4.4
92% 52 Central Florida 55 48.3, 228 Northeast Louisiana 0 2.9
92% 44 Georgia Southern 27 41.7, 204 The Citadel 10 7.6
92% 43 Boise State 59 41.5, 190 North Texas 0 6.2
92% 28 Georgia Tech 45 49.7, 183 Duke 10 15.2
92% 24 Auburn 38 45.1, 169 Louisiana Tech 28 10.6
92% 13 Texas Christian 17 41.5, 165 Tulsa 3 7.4
92% 5 Nebraska 59 57.2, 176 Baylor 0 3.2
92% 4 Kansas State 28 47.8, 93 Texas Tech 23 5.2
92% 2 Miami - Florida 45 47.2, 86 Temple 17 13.2
92% 1 Florida State 37 45.2, 60 Virginia 3 7.1
91% 106 South Florida 44 33.9, 206 Liberty 6 7.4
91% 72 Duquesne 56 46.1, 199 Iona 28 17.9
91% 12 Ohio State 38 35.7, 112 Iowa 10 11.0
90% 101 Nevada - Las Vegas 42 33.0, 194 Wyoming 23 9.0
88% 23 Texas 46 38.0, 95 Missouri 12 16.6
88% 20 Washington 36 29.5, 81 California 24 8.7
87% 146 Hampton 40 48.2, 231 South Carolina State 37 24.9
87% 10 Michigan 14 31.8, 64 Michigan State 0 9.8
87% 9 Clemson 38 39.0, 88 North Carolina 24 19.0
86% 172 Monmouth 34 26.2, 219 Stony Brook 7 7.3
86% 97 Richmond 17 34.3, 184 Maine 6 15.3
86% 17 Georgia 34 33.0, 98 Kentucky 30 15.3
86% 6 Virginia Tech 22 38.5, 49 Syracuse 14 20.2
85% 99 Montana 17 36.6, 180 Northern Arizona 7 18.0
84% 153 Northern Iowa 49 37.2, 229 Indiana State 17 19.7
84% 133 Southern 30 33.1, 215 Alcorn State 14 16.8
83% 164 Ball State 44 30.7, 220 Buffalo 35 15.3
81% 167 Stephen F. Austin 27 34.1, 227 Nicholls State 20 18.6
81% 94 Maryland 37 29.0, 154 Wake Forest 7 14.5
81% 33 South Carolina 30 20.7, 107 Vanderbilt 14 7.8
80% 77 James Madison 28 31.7, 132 William & Mary 14 17.6
80% 63 Appalachian State 42 37.0, 120 Wofford 16 22.7
79% 143 Columbia 49 34.8, 191 Dartmouth 21 20.7
79% 73 Alabama - Birmingham 14 28.4, 128 Middle Tennessee State 9 15.4
78% 230 Siena 19 29.5, 235 Canisius 14 17.5
78% 175 Southwest Texas State 28 19.2, 195 Jacksonville State 24 8.4
78% 70 Troy State 23 33.4, 152 Sam Houston State 21 21.3
77% 163 Murray State 38 43.0, 214 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 32.6
77% 123 Rice 38 29.9, 160 Hawaii 13 19.1
77% 76 Western Illinois 24 25.9, 121 Youngstown State 10 15.2
77% 42 Lehigh 21 25.4, 82 Bucknell 14 14.0
76% 85 San Jose State 49 35.2, 149 Nevada - Reno 30 25.4
76% 58 Hofstra 38 27.7, 92 Elon 27 17.1
72% 138 Southwest Missouri Sta 27 25.3, 177 Southern Illinois 9 16.8
72% 84 Eastern Illinois 27 24.0, 142 Tennessee Tech 16 16.6
71% 208 Delaware State 20 37.3, 218 Morgan State 12 29.5
71% 178 Bowling Green 20 29.9, 189 Eastern Michigan 6 22.2
70% 18 Tennessee 20 29.0, 26 Alabama 10 21.6
69% 90 Yale 27 28.5, 108 Pennsylvania 24 21.8
67% 118 Villanova 49 33.4, 125 New Hampshire 42 27.5
67% 25 Western Michigan 52 29.4, 37 Northern Illinois 22 23.4
67% 22 Texas A&M 30 26.9, 57 Iowa State 7 20.6
65% 14 Oregon 14 23.1, 16 Arizona 10 17.9
64% 130 Brown 56 36.0, 145 Cornell 40 31.5
63% 122 New Mexico State 35 32.4, 157 Arkansas State 29 28.4
62% 211 California State - Nor 24 25.1, 226 Montana State 12 21.9
62% 104 Western Kentucky 52 23.8, 137 Tennessee State 14 20.4
62% 29 Oregon State 44 33.3, 54 California - Los Angel 38 29.9
61% 182 Southern Utah 62 34.8, 200 Idaho State 24 31.6
60% 19 Purdue 30 24.5, 34 Wisconsin 24 22.1
59% 150 Sacred Heart 35 24.9, 148 Albany 28 22.9
59% 131 Grambling 33 20.6, 124 Jackson State 30 18.7
59% 51 Colorado State 24 20.1, 79 Utah 17 18.4
57% 62 Texas - El Paso 23 32.1, 50 Fresno State 13 30.7
55% 45 Arizona State 23 28.4, 65 Washington State 20 27.5
54% 205 Saint John's 15 7.0, 225 Saint Peter's 13 6.4
53% 36 Notre Dame 42 23.3, 47 West Virginia 28 22.7
51% 56 Kansas 23 21.7, 40 Colorado 15 21.5
49% 48 Penn State 39 21.5, 38 Illinois 25 21.6
48% 158 Rutgers 28 19.6, 173 Navy 21 20.0
47% 96 Dayton 41 24.3, 74 Drake 13 24.9
46% 162 Sacramento State 25 25.0, 155 Eastern Washington 22 25.8
43% 198 San Diego 38 34.2, 202 Butler 37 35.6
43% 168 Army 21 37.5, 134 Tulane 17 38.6
40% 119 Northwestern State 37 21.1, 83 McNeese State 34 23.6
39% 179 Georgetown 41 21.7, 147 Marist 17 24.6
39% 30 East Carolina 28 26.3, 31 Louisville 25 29.2
38% 207 Gardner - Webb 36 26.6, 203 Samford 17 30.1
38% 140 Harvard 35 21.1, 135 Princeton 21 24.7
36% 87 Stanford 32 16.9, 46 Southern California 30 21.3
32% 188 Western Carolina 41 25.3, 136 Tennessee - Chattanoog 36 31.8
32% 68 Pittsburgh 42 19.5, 27 Boston College 26 25.4
31% 103 New Mexico 29 19.0, 80 Air Force 23 25.5
31% 102 San Diego State 16 13.5, 89 Brigham Young 15 18.8
30% 223 Virginia Military 40 19.8, 193 Charleston Southern 7 27.7
27% 39 Louisiana State 45 18.1, 11 Mississippi State 38 26.2
24% 192 Lafayette 28 23.7, 127 Holy Cross 13 34.4
24% 166 Rhode Island 38 11.3, 144 Northeastern 24 19.3
21% 174 Utah State 31 22.3, 78 Idaho 14 35.9
19% 156 East Tennessee State 23 12.3, 66 Furman 21 26.3
17% 170 Connecticut 38 22.1, 110 Akron 35 38.3
15% 111 Indiana 51 23.0, 15 Minnesota 43 43.0
13% 201 Howard 17 6.8, 100 North Carolina A&T 16 24.5
12% 171 Houston 33 7.3, 69 Memphis State 30 28.7
8% 221 Saint Mary's 37 9.4, 105 Colgate 20 43.4
8% 196 Weber State 41 12.9, 55 Portland State 9 40.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.04 22 0.85 22 1.02 23 0.92 23 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 76 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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