rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 38 Boston College over 160 Rutgers 64 Bucknell over 177 Fordham 54 Fresno State over 171 Tulsa 8 Southern Mississippi over 149 Houston 17 Western Michigan over 208 Kent State 188 Marist over 234 Canisius 3 Miami - Florida over 151 Louisiana Tech 20 Mississippi State over 132 Middle Tennessee State 16 Toledo over 183 Navy 47 Northern Illinois over 219 Buffalo 67 Duquesne over 227 Saint Peter's 212 Southeast Missouri State over 236 Tennessee - Martin 18 Texas over 178 Baylor 12 Texas Christian over 107 Rice 76 Troy State over 226 Nicholls State 82 Western Illinois over 213 Morgan State 115 Youngstown State over 228 Indiana State 80-90% chance of victory: 96 Brigham Young over 199 Wyoming 150 Albany over 223 Central Connecticut 190 Morehead State over 232 Austin Peay 68 Hofstra over 202 California Poly 101 Elon over 211 Charleston Southern 28 Delaware over 77 James Madison 103 Drake over 205 Butler 89 Maryland over 189 Duke 27 East Carolina over 83 Alabama - Birmingham 78 Florida A&M over 145 Hampton 48 Georgia Southern over 142 East Tennessee State 43 Lehigh over 162 Holy Cross 30 Louisville over 131 Tulane 34 Boise State over 117 New Mexico State 1 Florida State over 35 North Carolina State 179 Northern Arizona over 229 Montana State 31 Notre Dame over 93 Air Force 141 Sacred Heart over 194 Iona 138 Southern Utah over 195 Saint Mary's 59 Appalachian State over 146 Tennessee - Chattanooga 6 Virginia Tech over 51 Pittsburgh 55 Robert Morris over 144 Wagner 128 Wofford over 196 The Citadel 70-80% chance of victory: 134 Eastern Kentucky over 174 Tennessee State 24 Alabama over 45 Central Florida 21 Arizona over 57 California - Los Angeles 157 Eastern Washington over 204 California State - North 175 Ball State over 218 Central Michigan 10 Clemson over 26 Georgia Tech 126 Colgate over 185 Lafayette 46 Colorado over 102 Oklahoma State 94 South Florida over 163 Connecticut 124 Harvard over 203 Dartmouth 206 Delaware State over 222 South Carolina State 108 Fairfield over 156 Georgetown 75 San Jose State over 173 Hawaii 198 Howard over 224 Norfolk State 170 Weber State over 216 Idaho State 133 Illinois State over 187 Southern Illinois 39 Wisconsin over 110 Iowa 69 Iowa State over 104 Missouri 52 Kansas over 66 Texas Tech 49 Mississippi over 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 233 Mississippi Valley State over 235 Prairie View 29 Oregon State over 60 Washington State 105 Pennsylvania over 125 Brown 84 McNeese State over 140 Sam Houston State 44 Colorado State over 97 San Diego State 56 Southern California over 74 California 111 Northwestern State over 181 Southwest Texas State 23 Washington over 70 Stanford 61 Virginia over 85 North Carolina 184 Western Carolina over 214 Virginia Military 130 William & Mary over 172 Northeastern 95 Yale over 137 Columbia 7 Florida over 22 Georgia 60-70% chance of victory: 13 Oregon over 41 Arizona State 32 Auburn over 50 Arkansas 109 Cincinnati over 119 Miami - Ohio 42 Penn State over 79 Indiana 220 Jacksonville over 225 Stony Brook 169 Stephen F. Austin over 193 Jacksonville State 209 Liberty over 217 Samford 25 Minnesota over 36 Northwestern 114 Towson over 159 Monmouth 86 Massachusetts over 136 New Hampshire 120 North Carolina A&T over 118 Bethune - Cookman 127 Northern Iowa over 129 Southwest Missouri State 2 Oklahoma over 4 Nebraska 99 Portland State over 100 Montana 207 Saint John's over 210 La Salle 197 San Diego over 201 Valparaiso 5 Kansas State over 14 Texas A&M 123 Grambling over 180 Texas Southern 147 Utah State over 166 Arkansas State 81 Western Kentucky over 88 Eastern Illinois 165 Alabama State over 186 Alabama A&M 50-60% chance of victory: 92 Marshall over 122 Akron 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 121 Jackson State 161 Cornell over 155 Princeton 167 Maine over 153 Rhode Island 65 Michigan State over 53 Illinois 158 Murray State over 139 Tennessee Tech 90 New Mexico over 80 Utah 15 Purdue over 11 Ohio State 19 Tennessee over 33 South Carolina 152 Nevada - Reno over 182 Southern Methodist 200 North Texas over 215 Southwestern Louisiana 98 Richmond over 116 Villanova
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