2000 Week 9 (26-28 Oct) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 212 Southeast Missouri Sta  34 45.2,   236 Tennessee - Martin      14 15.4
 92% 188 Marist                  49 41.1,   234 Canisius                14  3.0
 92% 115 Youngstown State        42 41.6,   228 Indiana State            7  5.7
 92%  82 Western Illinois        73 43.2,   213 Morgan State            17  7.3
 92%  76 Troy State              41 42.8,   226 Nicholls State          12  3.3
 92%  67 Duquesne                34 43.5,   227 Saint Peter's            0  7.9
 92%  47 Northern Illinois       73 60.1,   219 Buffalo                 10 17.2
 92%  20 Mississippi State       61 44.1,   132 Middle Tennessee State  35 15.9
 92%  18 Texas                   48 43.9,   178 Baylor                  14  3.7
 92%  17 Western Michigan        42 51.6,   208 Kent State               0  7.6
 92%  16 Toledo                  35 41.6,   183 Navy                    14  5.9
 92%   8 Southern Mississippi     6 46.9,   149 Houston                  3  9.5
 92%   3 Miami - Florida         42 66.4,   151 Louisiana Tech          31 11.8
 91%  54 Fresno State            34 34.8,   171 Tulsa                   12  6.5
 91%  38 Boston College          42 43.9,   160 Rutgers                 13 17.2
 91%  12 Texas Christian         37 35.9,   107 Rice                     0  6.8
 90%  96 Brigham Young           19 42.8,   199 Wyoming                  7 19.0
 90%  64 Bucknell                27 28.2,   177 Fordham                 13  5.1
 90%   1 Florida State           58 36.7,    35 North Carolina State    14 14.5
 89% 179 Northern Arizona        32 29.5,   229 Montana State            9  7.4
 89% 150 Albany                  42 39.8,   223 Central Connecticut     19 16.7
 89% 103 Drake                   62 51.1,   205 Butler                  41 26.3
 89%  68 Hofstra                 33 43.1,   202 California Poly         30 20.4
 89%  30 Louisville              35 49.4,   131 Tulane                  32 25.6
 89%   6 Virginia Tech           37 39.1,    51 Pittsburgh              34 15.8
 88% 101 Elon                    28 34.2,   211 Charleston Southern     12 10.1
 88%  43 Lehigh                  21 33.5,   162 Holy Cross               6 12.0
 87%  48 Georgia Southern        42 34.1,   142 East Tennessee State     7 13.8
 85%  31 Notre Dame              34 37.0,    93 Air Force               31 19.5
 83% 128 Wofford                 31 31.1,   196 The Citadel             10 14.9
 83%  28 Delaware                33 25.7,    77 James Madison           14 10.5
 82% 190 Morehead State          73 46.3,   232 Austin Peay             10 31.1
 82%  89 Maryland                20 32.5,   189 Duke                     9 17.6
 82%  78 Florida A&M             53 40.2,   145 Hampton                 24 24.7
 82%  55 Robert Morris           38 30.7,   144 Wagner                  31 16.0
 81% 141 Sacred Heart            46 33.7,   194 Iona                     7 18.5
 81% 138 Southern Utah           43 38.7,   195 Saint Mary's            14 22.8
 81%  34 Boise State             34 40.9,   117 New Mexico State        31 26.4
 80% 233 Mississippi Valley Sta  33 38.7,   235 Prairie View             7 24.2
 80%  75 San Jose State          59 39.9,   173 Hawaii                  48 26.4
 80%  49 Mississippi             43 23.7,   106 Nevada - Las Vegas      40 11.2
 79% 126 Colgate                 17 33.0,   185 Lafayette               14 19.3
 79% 124 Harvard                 49 34.2,   203 Dartmouth                7 21.2
 79%  46 Colorado                37 29.1,   102 Oklahoma State          21 16.0
 79%  39 Wisconsin               13 26.2,   110 Iowa                     7 14.4
 79%  29 Oregon State            38 38.6,    60 Washington State         9 26.2
 78% 198 Howard                  14 27.0,   224 Norfolk State            0 15.1
 78% 133 Illinois State          27 27.0,   187 Southern Illinois       17 15.0
 78% 108 Fairfield               38 34.6,   156 Georgetown              14 22.2
 78%  95 Yale                    41 34.3,   137 Columbia                 0 22.6
 77%  69 Iowa State              39 33.3,   104 Missouri                20 22.6
 77%  23 Washington              31 29.7,    70 Stanford                28 18.7
 77%   7 Florida                 34 30.5,    22 Georgia                 23 20.0
 76% 170 Weber State             16 32.9,   216 Idaho State             13 22.1
 76% 130 William & Mary          26 31.1,   172 Northeastern            15 21.0
 76%  44 Colorado State          34 16.8,    97 San Diego State         22  8.7
 75%  94 South Florida           21 27.7,   163 Connecticut             13 18.7
 74% 206 Delaware State          57 41.0,   222 South Carolina State    32 32.2
 73% 175 Ball State              38 22.4,   218 Central Michigan        34 14.6
 73% 134 Eastern Kentucky        28 23.7,   174 Tennessee State          0 15.4
 71%  84 McNeese State           31 30.1,   140 Sam Houston State       17 22.7
 71%  61 Virginia                17 29.4,    85 North Carolina           6 21.8
 70% 184 Western Carolina        41 36.2,   214 Virginia Military       31 29.0
 70% 147 Utah State              44 31.0,   166 Arkansas State          31 23.5
 70% 105 Pennsylvania            41 40.3,   125 Brown                   38 34.0
 70%  13 Oregon                  56 21.1,    41 Arizona State           55 14.6
 69% 123 Grambling               26 17.5,   180 Texas Southern          17 11.0
 69% 114 Towson                  12 19.1,   159 Monmouth                 0 13.2
 69%  32 Auburn                  21 22.5,    50 Arkansas                19 16.2
 67%   2 Oklahoma                31 36.0,     4 Nebraska                14 30.5
 65% 209 Liberty                 24 27.0,   217 Samford                  0 21.7
 65%  42 Penn State              27 33.9,    79 Indiana                 24 28.8
 64% 207 Saint John's            28 12.5,   210 La Salle                 2  8.8
 64% 109 Cincinnati              45 23.6,   119 Miami - Ohio            15 19.1
 64%  81 Western Kentucky        34 25.0,    88 Eastern Illinois        12 20.2
 63% 220 Jacksonville            17 26.8,   225 Stony Brook             13 22.4
 63% 169 Stephen F. Austin       27 31.0,   193 Jacksonville State      21 27.0
 62% 127 Northern Iowa           31 24.3,   129 Southwest Missouri Sta  13 21.0
 62% 120 North Carolina A&T      30 14.0,   118 Bethune - Cookman       19 11.4
 60%  19 Tennessee               17 20.0,    33 South Carolina          14 18.1
 59% 161 Cornell                 25 24.0,   155 Princeton               24 22.1
 59%  92 Marshall                31 27.2,   122 Akron                   28 25.5
 58% 200 North Texas             13 16.5,   215 Southwestern Louisiana   0 15.3
 58%  65 Michigan State          14 22.5,    53 Illinois                10 21.0
 57% 167 Maine                   37 19.0,   153 Rhode Island             7 17.8
 57%  90 New Mexico              10 19.5,    80 Utah                     3 18.3
 56%  15 Purdue                  31 26.3,    11 Ohio State              27 25.3
 54% 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   48 27.1,   121 Jackson State           41 26.4
 52%  98 Richmond                28 28.0,   116 Villanova               18 27.7

 49% 139 Tennessee Tech          36 21.3,   158 Murray State            21 21.4
 41% 182 Southern Methodist      21 18.9,   152 Nevada - Reno            7 20.4
 38% 186 Alabama A&M             34 26.5,   165 Alabama State           27 29.7
 38% 100 Montana                 33 29.6,    99 Portland State          21 33.1
 37% 201 Valparaiso              32 18.5,   197 San Diego               10 22.2
 35%  14 Texas A&M               26 20.1,     5 Kansas State            10 25.5
 31% 136 New Hampshire           24 23.7,    86 Massachusetts           16 31.0
 31%  36 Northwestern            41 28.2,    25 Minnesota               35 35.0
 30%  74 California              28 16.4,    56 Southern California     16 23.4
 30%  45 Central Florida         40 16.5,    24 Alabama                 38 23.7
 28% 181 Southwest Texas State   21 16.8,   111 Northwestern State      10 25.1
 27%  66 Texas Tech              45 13.6,    52 Kansas                  39 21.0
 26% 204 California State - Nor  31 23.2,   157 Eastern Washington      26 31.9
 22%  26 Georgia Tech            31 29.8,    10 Clemson                 28 40.5
 20%  57 California - Los Angel  27 22.6,    21 Arizona                 24 36.1
 19% 146 Tennessee - Chattanoog  30 21.7,    59 Appalachian State       27 36.1
 16%  83 Alabama - Birmingham    16  9.9,    27 East Carolina           13 25.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               12 1.48  21 1.09  33 1.04  23 1.07  17 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 106  89 1.10

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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