2000 Week 10 (2-4 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 143 Southwest Missouri Sta  52 49.8,   237 Tennessee - Martin       6  1.8
 92% 132 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   32 58.0,   235 Prairie View            13  5.5
 92% 109 Drake                   42 46.1,   224 Jacksonville             0 13.5
 92% 105 Elon                    24 37.1,   208 Liberty                 17  8.2
 92%  95 Montana                 38 46.1,   211 Idaho State             21 16.3
 92%  66 Appalachian State       52 47.6,   207 Virginia Military        0 14.6
 92%  57 Duquesne                40 57.5,   231 Siena                   14 12.0
 92%  12 Western Michigan        42 46.2,   184 Ball State               3  8.0
 92%   5 Florida                 43 44.0,   122 Vanderbilt              20 10.6
 92%   3 Nebraska                56 45.4,    67 Kansas                  17 13.2
 92%   2 Oklahoma                56 58.7,   170 Baylor                   7  6.1
 91% 221 Central Connecticut     45 32.8,   236 Saint Francis - Pennsy  24  6.5
 91% 120 Portland State          31 40.5,   226 Montana State           24 13.8
 91%  94 Eastern Illinois        38 46.7,   212 Southeast Missouri Sta   9 17.3
 91%  35 Lehigh                  20 35.0,   149 Colgate                 14  7.4
 91%  11 Texas A&M               21 33.6,   110 Oklahoma State          16  9.2
 90%  60 Fresno State            45 43.1,   168 Hawaii                  27 18.6
 89%  38 Boise State             42 47.2,   171 Arkansas State          14 24.3
 89%   1 Florida State           54 39.7,    16 Clemson                  7 16.5
 88%   8 Kansas State            56 41.8,    62 Iowa State              10 19.7
 87%  13 Ohio State              27 25.7,    58 Michigan State          13  7.0
 86%  53 Texas - El Paso         45 38.8,   166 Nevada - Reno           22 20.4
 85% 155 Cornell                 49 36.7,   209 Dartmouth               31 18.6
 85% 134 Wagner                  35 25.6,   199 Saint John's             3  9.1
 85%  78 McNeese State           18 25.9,   158 Southwest Texas State    3  7.9
 84%  17 Tennessee               19 25.6,    85 Memphis State           17  9.6
 82% 125 Rice                    43 20.4,   167 Southern Methodist      14  7.4
 82% 119 Tennessee Tech          56 28.1,   189 Tennessee State         23 13.4
 81% 103 Idaho                   16 25.4,   194 North Texas             14 11.2
 80% 165 Georgetown              43 38.2,   205 Iona                    14 24.4
 80% 157 Sam Houston State       27 30.0,   217 Nicholls State          21 16.5
 80% 126 Jackson State           34 34.3,   182 Alabama A&M             28 20.5
 80% 124 Grambling               20 36.9,   186 Alabama State            2 22.3
 80%  91 Richmond                13 20.0,   174 Rhode Island            10  8.0
 80%  75 Air Force               41 35.8,   159 Army                    27 22.7
 80%  50 Colorado State          45 29.9,   104 Brigham Young           21 16.2
 80%  37 Boston College          31 35.2,    88 Temple                   3 21.1
 79% 154 Sacramento State        64 35.3,   198 California State - Nor  61 21.8
 79% 137 Tennessee - Chattanoog  20 28.3,   203 The Citadel             13 16.7
 79% 100 Marshall                20 24.5,   188 Bowling Green           13 12.5
 78% 115 Northern Iowa           43 36.4,   192 California Poly         41 24.9
 78% 106 Fairfield               21 31.2,   191 Marist                  17 19.8
 78%  93 James Madison           22 28.0,   144 Maine                    7 16.0
 78%  19 Mississippi State       35 41.9,    76 Kentucky                17 30.1
 77%  71 Florida A&M             50 31.0,   148 Southern                49 20.3
 77%  51 Illinois                42 43.7,    89 Indiana                 35 34.4
 77%  48 Colorado                28 29.5,   111 Missouri                18 19.4
 77%  43 Central Florida         20 37.7,   118 Louisiana Tech          16 26.5
 77%  18 Texas                   29 31.5,    74 Texas Tech              17 19.4
 76% 197 Eastern Michigan        31 29.0,   213 Central Michigan        15 19.2
 76% 112 Harvard                 34 34.6,   150 Columbia                 0 24.1
 76%  87 Troy State               6 32.3,   153 Stephen F. Austin        0 22.3
 76%  47 California - Los Angel  37 34.9,    73 Stanford                35 24.6
 75%  21 Oregon                  27 36.3,    68 Washington State        24 26.6
 73%  97 Massachusetts           38 37.3,   128 Villanova               17 29.1
 73%  55 Robert Morris           31 25.9,   121 Sacred Heart            20 17.6
 71% 146 Albany                  37 23.3,   173 Monmouth                10 16.0
 71%   4 Miami - Florida         41 36.8,     7 Virginia Tech           21 29.4
 70%  84 Utah                    38 19.1,    98 Nevada - Las Vegas      16 13.1
 69% 117 Tulane                  41 36.4,   138 Houston                 23 29.9
 68% 131 Middle Tennessee State  66 31.3,   179 Connecticut             10 24.7
 67% 176 Wake Forest             28 21.6,   187 Duke                    26 16.6
 66%  15 Toledo                  38 31.6,    39 Northern Illinois       24 26.2
 65%  26 Oregon State            38 24.7,    59 California              32 19.9
 64% 107 Pennsylvania            40 27.7,   151 Princeton               24 23.0
 63% 214 Samford                 21 23.7,   215 Charleston Southern     14 19.8
 63% 160 Eastern Washington      27 24.8,   172 Northern Arizona         9 20.6
 63% 129 Bethune - Cookman       34 35.7,   162 Hampton                 31 31.6
 63%  33 Wisconsin               41 22.7,    32 Minnesota               20 18.6
 61% 228 Norfolk State           19 18.9,   222 Morgan State            14 16.6
 61% 180 Fordham                 31 24.2,   181 Lafayette               28 21.4
 61%  46 Syracuse                31 23.2,    72 West Virginia           27 20.1
 61%  23 Washington              35 22.9,    24 Arizona                 32 19.8
 59%  30 Louisiana State         30 25.9,    28 Alabama                 28 24.1
 56%  82 Cincinnati              33 18.2,    69 Alabama - Birmingham    21 17.2
 54% 139 Wofford                 35 25.4,   156 East Tennessee State    31 24.7

 48% 108 Youngstown State        42 24.5,    96 Hofstra                 35 24.8
 42% 216 Southwestern Louisiana  21 17.7,   225 Northeast Louisiana     18 19.2
 41% 220 La Salle                21  8.9,   230 Saint Peter's            7 10.2
 40% 223 Buffalo                 20 26.2,   210 Kent State              17 28.4
 40%  99 South Florida           30 17.1,    64 Western Kentucky        24 19.4
 37% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta  12 25.9,   218 Alcorn State             3 29.9
 37% 130 Brown                   28 32.4,    90 Yale                    14 36.4
 36%  79 Furman                  45 19.3,    42 Georgia Southern        10 23.6
 33%  81 Maryland                35 22.7,    40 North Carolina State    28 28.0
 31%  61 Mississippi             38 23.3,    52 Arkansas                24 30.4
 31%  25 Northwestern            54 23.7,    10 Michigan                51 30.6
 27% 145 Utah State              44 24.8,   114 New Mexico State        37 33.2
 25% 101 San Diego State         17  9.0,    77 New Mexico              16 16.4
 24%  70 Southern California     44 19.6,    36 Arizona State           38 30.0
 23% 164 Murray State            24 15.2,   123 Eastern Kentucky        22 25.3
 23% 152 Holy Cross              10 14.7,    80 Bucknell                 9 25.0
 23% 141 Miami - Ohio            27 18.7,    63 Ohio                    24 29.5
 21% 229 South Carolina State    38 23.3,   193 Howard                  20 36.1
 21%  83 North Carolina          20 16.0,    41 Pittsburgh              17 29.2
 20% 200 Jacksonville State      28 18.8,   127 Northwestern State      24 32.2
 15% 135 Illinois State          25 13.6,    54 Western Illinois        18 32.0
 15% 113 Iowa                    26  9.5,    49 Penn State              23 26.3
 13% 227 Indiana State           23 15.9,   185 Southern Illinois       22 36.4
 13% 204 Delaware State          46 11.5,   102 North Carolina A&T      45 30.8
 13% 201 Saint Mary's            45 14.9,    92 Towson                  33 35.5
 13%  86 San Jose State          27 18.1,     9 Texas Christian         24 37.4
 13%  44 Louisville              49 11.7,     6 Southern Mississippi    28 31.5
 11% 195 Valparaiso              16 10.4,    65 Dayton                  15 33.2
  9% 136 New Hampshire           45 13.2,    27 Delaware                44 38.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 0.76  22 1.06  34 0.96  24 0.78  18 1.03   0 0.00
		
  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105  76 0.94

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net