prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 144 Davidson 22 48.7, 233 Austin Peay 7 10.4
92% 142 Akron 49 47.5, 226 Buffalo 14 18.2
92% 124 Northern Iowa 60 58.9, 234 Prairie View 14 10.5
92% 121 Sacred Heart 20 52.2, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 4.9
92% 114 Fairfield 66 54.8, 235 Canisius 0 2.6
92% 108 Louisiana Tech 42 47.7, 229 Northeast Louisiana 19 10.0
92% 107 Tennessee Tech 29 37.9, 210 Samford 0 7.4
92% 64 Western Kentucky 28 47.6, 219 Indiana State 3 5.4
92% 51 Lehigh 51 36.3, 177 Fordham 17 7.4
92% 44 North Carolina State 35 42.8, 184 Duke 31 13.6
92% 15 Toledo 31 48.7, 190 Ball State 3 5.5
92% 1 Florida State 35 65.5, 170 Wake Forest 6 5.3
91% 158 Georgetown 20 32.9, 232 Saint Peter's 16 5.5
91% 85 Dayton 27 36.6, 205 San Diego 14 11.8
91% 31 Louisville 38 45.4, 152 Army 17 18.5
91% 4 Miami - Florida 35 40.7, 53 Pittsburgh 7 14.9
90% 60 Duquesne 23 44.7, 176 Lafayette 14 21.2
90% 32 Boise State 66 43.1, 130 Utah State 38 19.7
89% 163 Alabama A&M 27 30.3, 224 Alcorn State 20 7.6
88% 151 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 35.2, 211 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 14.5
88% 65 Utah 34 35.0, 192 Wyoming 0 13.6
88% 38 East Carolina 62 35.0, 138 Houston 20 13.8
88% 7 Michigan 33 31.5, 55 Penn State 11 9.7
87% 52 Appalachian State 35 41.5, 180 Western Carolina 28 21.7
87% 11 Texas Christian 24 28.7, 69 Fresno State 7 9.3
86% 111 Brown 34 45.4, 208 Dartmouth 26 26.2
86% 77 Ohio 23 29.5, 189 Bowling Green 21 11.9
85% 179 Alabama State 44 41.5, 228 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 20.6
84% 54 Robert Morris 43 40.2, 129 Albany 34 23.3
84% 5 Florida 41 31.7, 30 South Carolina 21 14.9
83% 106 Tulane 50 35.5, 174 Navy 38 19.0
83% 47 Texas - El Paso 38 35.7, 113 Rice 21 19.3
81% 128 Bethune - Cookman 35 30.5, 206 Howard 0 16.2
81% 18 Tennessee 63 30.4, 66 Arkansas 20 16.3
81% 16 Southern Mississippi 33 19.2, 73 Alabama - Birmingham 30 7.7
81% 2 Oklahoma 35 29.4, 10 Texas A&M 31 15.8
80% 24 Wisconsin 43 37.0, 97 Indiana 22 23.7
80% 22 Georgia Tech 35 34.0, 57 Virginia 0 19.9
79% 80 West Virginia 31 33.8, 164 Rutgers 24 21.5
79% 59 Georgia Southern 32 28.0, 119 Elon 9 15.3
79% 45 Furman 27 34.1, 140 Wofford 18 20.6
79% 26 Oregon 25 29.6, 56 California 17 16.8
78% 159 Murray State 62 38.5, 199 Tennessee State 40 26.9
78% 100 Montana 30 22.6, 169 Weber State 28 12.1
78% 9 Virginia Tech 44 33.0, 49 Central Florida 21 20.8
77% 209 Iona 31 36.1, 231 Siena 21 24.2
77% 23 Washington 35 38.9, 50 California - Los Angel 28 28.0
77% 17 Texas 51 33.7, 71 Kansas 16 23.0
76% 207 Idaho State 58 29.1, 223 Montana State 14 19.1
76% 183 Marist 13 23.6, 214 La Salle 12 14.7
76% 98 Marshall 51 27.5, 132 Miami - Ohio 31 18.0
76% 75 Texas Tech 58 27.0, 110 Oklahoma State 0 17.4
76% 12 Mississippi State 29 35.9, 27 Alabama 7 26.4
75% 198 Delaware State 31 29.1, 227 Norfolk State 28 19.3
75% 147 Maine 42 28.2, 175 Northeastern 17 19.0
75% 141 Southern 49 26.7, 171 Texas Southern 29 17.0
73% 117 Southern Utah 35 41.1, 146 Morehead State 21 33.4
72% 35 Delaware 31 29.3, 91 Massachusetts 19 21.2
72% 13 Ohio State 24 27.5, 40 Illinois 21 19.7
70% 118 Missouri 47 25.3, 168 Baylor 22 18.6
69% 68 Troy State 20 21.8, 92 McNeese State 16 15.7
68% 46 Syracuse 31 24.6, 103 Temple 12 18.5
67% 166 Southwest Texas State 38 20.5, 187 Stephen F. Austin 21 15.1
65% 161 Hawaii 37 36.1, 167 Nevada - Reno 17 31.5
64% 217 South Carolina State 57 36.2, 221 Morgan State 37 31.7
64% 33 Notre Dame 28 31.5, 36 Boston College 16 27.1
63% 222 Central Connecticut 35 24.4, 225 Stony Brook 34 20.1
63% 193 Jacksonville State 28 24.4, 213 Southwestern Louisiana 14 20.1
63% 181 Arkansas State 53 19.7, 188 North Texas 28 16.3
63% 83 Middle Tennessee State 45 25.6, 90 South Florida 9 21.2
63% 29 Louisiana State 20 32.5, 48 Mississippi 9 28.4
62% 120 Idaho 44 34.7, 127 New Mexico State 41 31.2
61% 150 Sacramento State 28 26.9, 185 Northern Arizona 24 23.9
61% 135 North Carolina A&T 31 25.0, 160 Hampton 28 22.3
60% 165 Rhode Island 26 21.0, 196 Connecticut 21 19.1
60% 104 Pennsylvania 36 28.8, 102 Harvard 35 26.6
60% 74 North Carolina 13 22.5, 72 Maryland 10 20.1
57% 96 Richmond 21 15.3, 88 James Madison 2 14.3
52% 105 Nevada - Las Vegas 18 18.3, 87 New Mexico 14 18.0
51% 191 Monmouth 27 7.4, 204 Saint John's 14 7.3
50% 112 Illinois State 44 19.4, 82 Eastern Illinois 41 19.5
49% 154 Cornell 35 29.3, 173 Columbia 31 29.6
47% 67 Cincinnati 13 19.6, 78 Memphis State 10 20.1
47% 25 Oregon State 33 25.1, 28 Arizona 9 25.6
44% 197 California State - Nor 45 33.3, 178 California Poly 27 34.4
41% 186 Southern Methodist 24 14.6, 162 Tulsa 20 16.0
41% 34 Auburn 29 17.1, 21 Georgia 26 18.8
39% 126 Towson 15 18.9, 86 Bucknell 13 21.7
39% 62 Stanford 29 25.2, 41 Arizona State 7 28.1
38% 216 Virginia Military 41 18.7, 202 The Citadel 21 21.8
37% 134 William & Mary 48 31.3, 131 Villanova 41 35.4
37% 63 Washington State 33 27.2, 58 Southern California 27 31.2
37% 6 Kansas State 29 28.3, 3 Nebraska 28 32.1
35% 76 Air Force 44 26.5, 39 Colorado State 40 31.7
33% 153 Eastern Washington 27 25.6, 143 Portland State 24 31.8
32% 149 East Tennessee State 24 20.9, 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog 22 27.3
30% 156 Holy Cross 32 14.7, 145 Colgate 3 20.7
28% 109 Vanderbilt 24 20.5, 89 Kentucky 20 28.5
26% 157 Sam Houston State 27 27.2, 137 Northwestern State 13 35.9
23% 182 Saint Mary's 45 27.8, 101 Drake 43 38.3
23% 84 Iowa State 35 18.4, 42 Colorado 27 29.3
22% 220 Charleston Southern 25 15.7, 201 Liberty 0 27.2
22% 61 Michigan State 30 16.0, 14 Purdue 10 27.1
18% 155 Princeton 19 13.8, 93 Yale 14 28.5
15% 116 Iowa 27 23.1, 19 Northwestern 17 40.9
14% 200 Gardner - Webb 38 20.6, 122 New Hampshire 35 39.6
12% 194 Southern Illinois 21 12.8, 99 Youngstown State 20 34.4
9% 195 Eastern Michigan 39 22.1, 43 Northern Illinois 32 48.4
8% 230 Jacksonville 31 10.7, 123 Wagner 22 40.8
8% 218 Central Michigan 21 6.1, 8 Western Michigan 17 54.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.76 26 0.96 28 1.03 25 0.98 19 0.92 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 110 80 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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