prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 5 Florida 28 30.0, 21 Auburn 6 20.6
74% 45 Georgia Southern 48 36.5, 75 Hofstra 20 28.3
64% 103 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 30.5, 146 Hawaii 32 25.9
63% 77 Montana 34 18.0, 78 Richmond 20 14.7
60% 36 Delaware 47 26.8, 33 Lehigh 22 24.3
56% 3 Oklahoma 27 28.0, 6 Kansas State 24 26.9
47% 130 Grambling 14 16.3, 143 Alabama A&M 6 16.8
37% 53 Appalachian State 17 17.2, 51 Western Kentucky 14 20.7
33% 194 Navy 30 22.6, 165 Army 28 28.5
21% 87 Marshall 19 16.1, 22 Western Michigan 14 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.92 5 0.95 3 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 10 6 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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