3 Jan 2002: Season end model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from model fit for the final week in the season.

rnk u spd  off  def                          rnk u spd  off  def
  1 2  11 13.7  5.2 Miami - Florida          119 *   0  6.7  2.0 Southern                
  2 3  10 14.7  4.0 Florida                  120 *   0  8.1  0.8 Vanderbilt              
  3 3   8 12.5  3.6 Tennessee                121 *   0  7.4  1.3 Rhode Island            
  4 4   7 11.4  4.0 Oregon                   122 *   0  8.3  0.6 Wofford                 
  5 *   7 11.8  3.5 Florida State            123 *   0  6.3  2.1 James Madison           
  6 6   6  9.5  5.0 Oklahoma                 124 *   0  8.3  0.6 Rice                    
  7 7   6 10.2  4.5 Syracuse                 125 *   0  9.8 -0.6 Akron                   
  8 8   6 13.2  2.3 Texas                    126 *   0  7.0  1.5 Princeton               
  9 9   6 11.8  3.0 Nebraska                 127 *   0  9.2 -0.2 Portland State          
 10 *   6 12.0  2.8 Louisiana State          128 *   0  7.9  0.7 Southwest Missouri State
 11 *   5 10.9  3.0 Boston College           129 *   0  7.6  0.9 North Carolina A&T      
 12 *   5 10.1  3.6 Oregon State             130 *   0  8.0  0.6 Kent State              
 13 *   5 11.5  2.4 Colorado                 131 *   0  8.1  0.6 Ball State              
 14 *   5 10.5  3.1 Georgia Tech             132 *   0  7.7  0.8 California              
 15 *   5 10.7  3.0 Virginia Tech            133 *   0  7.9  0.7 Missouri                
 16 *   5  9.6  3.7 Louisville               134 *   0  8.3  0.3 Southern Utah           
 17 *   5 12.0  1.9 Clemson                  135 *   0  8.8 -0.1 Tennessee State         
 18 *   5 10.1  3.3 South Carolina           136 *   0  6.4  1.7 The Citadel             
 19 *   5 11.6  2.2 Washington State         137 *   0  9.0 -0.3 Florida A&M             
 20 *   4  8.9  4.1 Kansas State             138 *   0  8.6  0.0 Baylor                  
 21 *   4  9.1  3.9 Utah                     139 *   0  8.8 -0.2 Northern Arizona        
 22 *   4  9.6  3.5 Georgia                  140 *   0  7.2  1.0 North Texas             
 23 *   4 10.0  3.1 Iowa                     141 *   0  6.6  1.4 East Tennessee State    
 24 *   4  9.3  3.5 Alabama                  142 *   0  9.3 -0.7 Alabama State           
 25 *   4 13.1  0.6 Marshall                 143 *   0  6.7  1.3 Towson                  
 26 *   4 11.6  1.7 Washington               144 *   0  8.6 -0.2 Sam Houston State       
 27 *   4 10.1  2.7 Michigan                 145 *   0  8.2  0.1 Hampton                 
 28 *   4  9.6  3.1 Pittsburgh               146 *   0  7.0  0.9 Alabama A&M             
 29 *   4 10.5  2.5 Texas Tech               147 *   0  7.4  0.5 Bethune - Cookman       
 30 *   4 11.4  1.8 Fresno State             148 *   0  6.5  1.3 Ohio                    
 31 *   4 10.9  2.1 Michigan State           149 *   0  5.2  2.2 Saint Peter's           
 32 *   4  8.6  3.8 Texas A&M                150 *   0  7.9  0.1 San Jose State          
 33 *   4  9.0  3.5 Southern California      151 *   0  6.1  1.5 Monmouth                
 34 *   4  9.0  3.4 Notre Dame               152 *   0  9.4 -1.1 Tulane                  
 35 *   4 10.6  2.2 Ohio State               153 *   0  6.0  1.4 California Poly         
 36 *   4 10.4  2.4 California - Los Angeles 154 *   0  7.0  0.7 Massachusetts           
 37 *   4  9.3  3.1 Montana                  155 *   0  7.3  0.4 Montana State           
 38 *   4 10.5  2.2 Georgia Southern         156 *  -1  7.4  0.2 Fairfield               
 39 *   3 10.5  2.1 Maryland                 157 *  -1  7.0  0.5 Kansas                  
 40 *   3 10.1  2.4 Stanford                 158 *  -1  8.7 -0.8 Utah State              
 41 *   3  9.2  2.9 North Carolina           159 *  -1  7.1  0.3 Holy Cross              
 42 *   3 11.2  1.4 Illinois                 160 *  -1  9.1 -1.3 Jackson State           
 43 *   3  9.8  2.4 Boise State              161 *  -1  8.4 -0.7 Eastern Washington      
 44 *   3  9.8  2.3 Central Florida          162 *  -1  7.3  0.0 Wyoming                 
 45 *   3  9.2  2.7 Purdue                   163 *  -1  6.9  0.3 Army                    
 46 *   3  8.3  3.4 Southern Mississippi     164 *  -1  6.9  0.3 Stephen F. Austin       
 47 *   3  9.0  2.8 Arkansas                 165 *  -1  6.8  0.4 Elon                    
 48 *   3 10.2  1.9 Colorado State           166 *  -1  7.2  0.0 Yale                    
 49 *   3 12.2  0.5 Hawaii                   167 *  -1  7.3  0.0 Lafayette               
 50 *   3  9.6  2.3 North Carolina State     168 *  -1  6.2  0.7 Saint Mary's            
 51 *   3 10.8  1.4 Arizona                  169 *  -1  7.1  0.0 Albany                  
 52 *   3 10.6  1.5 South Florida            170 *  -1  8.0 -0.7 New Mexico State        
 53 *   3  9.4  2.4 Iowa State               171 *  -1  8.2 -0.9 Nevada - Reno           
 54 *   3 12.2  0.3 East Carolina            172 *  -1  8.3 -1.0 Delaware State          
 55 *   3  9.7  2.2 Sacred Heart             173 *  -1  9.1 -1.6 Idaho                   
 56 *   3  9.3  2.4 New Mexico               174 *  -1  8.1 -0.9 Illinois State          
 57 *   3  9.6  2.2 Bowling Green            175 *  -1  7.8 -0.7 Texas - El Paso         
 58 *   3 10.0  1.9 Mississippi State        176 *  -1  6.6  0.2 Central Michigan        
 59 *   3  8.7  2.8 Alabama - Birmingham     177 *  -2  6.5  0.2 Navy                    
 60 *   3  9.5  2.1 Penn State               178 *  -1  7.8 -0.8 Butler                  
 61 *   3  8.6  2.7 Auburn                   179 *  -1  9.1 -1.8 California State - North
 62 *   2  9.5  2.0 Texas Christian          180 *  -1  8.3 -1.2 Weber State             
 63 *   2  9.0  2.4 Oklahoma State           181 *  -2  7.0 -0.2 Jacksonville State      
 64 *   2 10.3  1.2 Mississippi              182 *  -2  7.5 -0.6 Cornell                 
 65 *   2  7.9  3.0 Furman                   183 *  -2  6.8 -0.2 San Diego               
 66 *   2  9.9  1.5 Minnesota                184 *  -2  6.6  0.0 Nicholls State          
 67 *   2 11.0  0.6 Brigham Young            185 *  -2  8.4 -1.4 Gardner - Webb          
 68 *   2  9.3  1.9 Lehigh                   186 *  -2  5.8  0.5 Tulsa                   
 69 *   2  9.1  2.0 Indiana                  187 *  -2  4.9  1.1 Valparaiso              
 70 *   2  9.7  1.5 Toledo                   188 *  -2  7.5 -0.9 Houston                 
 71 *   2  9.7  1.5 Wisconsin                189 *  -2  7.8 -1.2 New Hampshire           
 72 *   2  8.5  2.4 Western Kentucky         190 *  -2  6.4 -0.1 Buffalo                 
 73 *   2 10.0  1.2 Wake Forest              191 *  -2  6.6 -0.3 Jacksonville            
 74 *   2 10.3  1.0 Hofstra                  192 *  -2  7.5 -1.0 Morehead State          
 75 *   2 11.3  0.3 Villanova                193 *  -2  7.8 -1.2 Drake                   
 76 *   2  8.5  2.3 Pennsylvania             194 *  -2  7.9 -1.3 Idaho State             
 77 *   2  8.4  2.4 Nevada - Las Vegas       195 *  -2  6.1 -0.1 South Carolina State    
 78 *   2  9.3  1.7 Memphis State            196 *  -2  6.4 -0.3 Columbia                
 79 *   2  9.4  1.6 Cincinnati               197 *  -2  6.9 -0.7 Samford                 
 80 *   2  8.8  1.9 West Virginia            198 *  -2  6.4 -0.4 Murray State            
 81 *   2 10.3  0.8 Arizona State            199 *  -2  4.2  1.3 Marist                  
 82 *   2 10.2  0.8 Middle Tennessee State   200 *  -2  6.9 -0.8 Southwestern Louisiana  
 83 *   1  8.5  1.9 Youngstown State         201 *  -2  7.0 -0.9 Southeast Missouri State
 84 *   1  9.6  1.1 Appalachian State        202 *  -2  6.5 -0.6 Alcorn State            
 85 *   1  8.8  1.7 Virginia                 203 *  -3  7.5 -1.5 Wagner                  
 86 *   1  9.6  1.0 Harvard                  204 *  -3  7.1 -1.2 Eastern Michigan        
 87 *   1  9.5  1.1 Dayton                   205 *  -3  5.3  0.1 Stony Brook             
 88 *   1  9.3  1.2 Kentucky                 206 *  -3  6.4 -0.7 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 89 *   1  7.5  2.5 Delaware                 207 *  -3  5.0  0.3 Southwest Texas State   
 90 *   1 10.5  0.3 Brown                    208 *  -3  7.5 -1.8 Sacramento State        
 91 *   1  8.4  1.8 Tennessee Tech           209 *  -3  8.2 -2.2 Duke                    
 92 *   1  9.2  1.2 Grambling                210 *  -3  6.0 -0.7 Georgetown              
 93 *   1  8.8  1.4 Duquesne                 211 *  -3  6.5 -1.2 Iona                    
 94 *   1  7.9  2.0 Colgate                  212 *  -3  5.1 -0.1 Central Connecticut     
 95 *   1  9.9  0.5 Eastern Illinois         213 *  -3  4.1  0.5 Texas Southern          
 96 *   1  7.7  2.1 Temple                   214 *  -3  4.1  0.6 Davidson                
 97 *   1 10.4  0.1 Air Force                215 *  -4  6.2 -1.1 Dartmouth               
 98 *   1  6.9  2.7 Richmond                 216 *  -4  5.4 -0.7 Indiana State           
 99 *   1 10.0  0.2 Northern Illinois        217 *  -4  4.0  0.2 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
100 *   1  7.6  1.9 Troy State               218 *  -4  5.3 -0.8 Arkansas State          
101 *   1 10.4 -0.2 Northwestern             219 *  -4  5.4 -0.9 Southern Illinois       
102 *   1  7.8  1.8 McNeese State            220 *  -4  3.7  0.3 Norfolk State           
103 *   1  8.2  1.4 Western Michigan         221 *  -4  4.6 -0.4 Northeast Louisiana     
104 *   1  9.4  0.5 William & Mary           222 *  -4  4.1 -0.2 La Salle                
105 *   1  9.4  0.5 Louisiana Tech           223 *  -4  3.9  0.0 Rutgers                 
106 *   1  8.8  0.9 Miami - Ohio             224 *  -4  5.8 -1.5 Morgan State            
107 *   1  8.6  1.1 Maine                    225 *  -4  5.8 -1.5 Howard                  
108 *   0  9.6  0.3 Northern Iowa            226 *  -4  4.9 -0.8 Liberty                 
109 *   0  7.0  2.2 San Diego State          227 *  -4  5.0 -0.9 Charleston Southern     
110 *   0  8.5  1.0 Fordham                  228 *  -4  5.6 -1.4 Connecticut             
111 *   0  9.5  0.2 Robert Morris            229 *  -4  6.1 -1.8 Virginia Military       
112 *   0  7.0  2.1 Southern Methodist       230 *  -5  5.0 -1.1 Austin Peay             
113 *   0  7.5  1.7 Northeastern             231 *  -5  2.9 -0.1 Saint John's            
114 *   0  8.1  1.3 Northwestern State       232 *  -7  5.2 -3.3 Mississippi Valley State
115 *   0  9.2  0.4 Western Carolina         233 *  -7  1.8 -0.6 Siena                   
116 *   0  6.7  2.1 Bucknell                 234 *  -8  5.0 -3.7 Canisius                
117 *   0  7.3  1.6 Eastern Kentucky         235 *  -9  3.0 -2.8 Tennessee - Martin      
118 *   0  8.5  0.6 Western Illinois         236 *  -8  1.3 -1.7 Saint Francis - Pennsylv

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=* for uncertainty greater than 9 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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