2001 Week 1 (30 Aug - 3 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  95 Dayton                  70 58.3,   236 Saint Francis - Pennsy   0  1.9
 92%  71 Alabama - Birmingham    41 43.7,   231 Montana State           13  2.4
 92%   8 Georgia Tech            35 50.9,   206 The Citadel              7  1.9
 91% 105 Bethune - Cookman       35 44.5,   229 Morgan State            24  9.6
 91%  56 Appalachian State       46 43.8,   208 Liberty                 26  5.7
 91%  26 Auburn                  30 41.9,   178 Ball State               0  5.8
 91%  11 Michigan                31 45.6,   140 Miami - Ohio            13 10.6
 91%   6 Virginia Tech           52 64.7,   194 Connecticut             10  9.7
 91%   1 Florida State           55 61.5,   177 Duke                    13  5.5
 90%  97 Iowa                    51 37.0,   218 Kent State               0  4.6
 90%  20 Georgia                 45 47.9,   170 Arkansas State          17 12.7
 90%   9 Texas                   41 49.3,   136 New Mexico State         7 17.0
 89% 195 Gardner - Webb          45 46.9,   237 Tennessee - Martin      20 14.1
 89%  76 Duquesne                41 47.3,   209 Virginia Military       18 16.3
 89%  17 Texas A&M               38 34.6,   109 McNeese State           24  8.8
 89%   3 Nebraska                42 38.9,    66 Troy State              14  6.9
 88% 142 Tulsa                   51 33.1,   219 Indiana State            0  8.8
 88%  18 Southern Mississippi    17 33.9,   110 Oklahoma State           9  9.1
 87% 168 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   19 39.1,   232 Mississippi Valley Sta   9 15.7
 87%  15 Brigham Young           52 62.6,   200 Nevada - Reno            7 19.0
 87%   5 Florida                 49 43.5,    74 Marshall                14 17.7
 87%   2 Miami - Florida         33 39.1,    47 Penn State               7 14.0
 86%  50 Pittsburgh              31 32.6,   137 East Tennessee State     0 12.9
 86%  30 Western Michigan        48 30.0,   112 Illinois State           7  9.6
 86%  29 Louisiana State         48 58.6,   197 Tulane                  17 21.5
 86%  24 Mississippi State       30 31.3,    93 Memphis State           10 10.7
 86%  10 Texas Christian         19 32.1,   192 North Texas              5  3.4
 85% 128 Grambling               37 29.6,   221 Alcorn State            22  8.2
 84% 130 Jackson State           27 39.7,   217 Howard                  17 19.0
 84%  85 Kansas                  24 30.8,   160 Southwest Missouri Sta  10 13.4
 84%  73 Florida A&M             35 52.1,   193 Delaware State          17 26.7
 84%  68 Utah                    23 32.7,   156 Utah State              19 14.7
 84%  43 Lehigh                  41 37.9,   169 Georgetown              14 17.7
 83%  80 Montana                 31 37.5,   198 California Poly         17 18.6
 83%  77 Hofstra                 45 42.5,   164 Northeastern            21 23.0
 83%  49 Mississippi             49 45.4,   149 Murray State            14 24.8
 83%  12 Tennessee               33 28.7,    72 Syracuse                 9  8.7
 82% 132 Tennessee - Chattanoog  28 35.4,   220 Samford                 14 17.6
 81% 175 Eastern Michigan        16 38.1,   216 Southeast Missouri Sta  12 21.6
 81% 154 Sam Houston State       20 33.2,   223 Northeast Louisiana      9 17.3
 80% 115 Temple                  45 29.9,   181 Navy                    26 15.4
 80%  19 Clemson                 21 33.4,    59 Central Florida         13 18.9
 79% 161 Rutgers                 31 35.5,   226 Buffalo                 15 20.7
 79%  60 Northern Illinois       20 34.2,   106 South Florida           17 20.5
 78% 135 Davidson                24 24.0,   184 Valparaiso               7 13.0
 78% 129 Louisiana Tech          36 29.5,   173 Southern Methodist       6 17.2
 78% 121 Southern Utah           28 28.4,   163 Weber State             21 16.8
 78%  16 Toledo                  38 30.9,    44 Minnesota                7 18.8
 78%   7 Oklahoma                44 42.4,    62 Air Force                3 27.3
 77%  25 Purdue                  19 33.2,    81 Cincinnati              14 22.0
 76%  40 Arizona                 23 23.1,   104 San Diego State         10 12.5
 75%  64 Virginia                17 22.0,    92 Richmond                16 13.4
 75%  61 Arkansas                14 26.9,    83 Nevada - Las Vegas      10 18.0
 74%  34 Louisville              36 37.3,   103 Kentucky                10 27.8
 74%  21 Oregon                  31 26.9,    36 Wisconsin               28 18.0
 73%  67 Southern California     21 36.0,    99 San Jose State          10 26.8
 70% 152 Sacramento State        13 37.8,   180 Saint Mary's             6 29.8
 69% 179 Northern Arizona        30 33.3,   196 California State - Nor  17 26.1
 68% 131 Villanova               38 34.6,   145 Colgate                 14 27.8
 68%  41 Boston College          34 33.6,    57 West Virginia           10 26.9
 67% 210 Southwestern Louisiana  20 20.8,   214 Nicholls State           0 15.5
 67% 101 James Madison           42 19.8,   113 Elon                    21 14.6
 64% 227 Saint Peter's           22 19.7,   230 Central Connecticut     20 15.7
 64% 125 Portland State          16 31.9,   167 Stephen F. Austin       13 26.7
 62% 143 New Hampshire           45 34.8,   147 Hampton                 29 31.2
 62%  82 Washington State        36 33.9,   119 Idaho                    7 29.9
 61% 123 Rice                    21 26.4,   155 Houston                 14 23.7
 55%  88 Western Illinois        17 20.1,    70 Western Kentucky        13 19.1
 51%  28 South Carolina          32 23.4,    23 Boise State             13 23.2

 44% 138 Albany                  14 30.1,   117 Towson                  10 31.3
 44%  52 Illinois                44 22.8,    65 California              17 24.0
 40% 100 New Mexico              26 22.0,    75 Texas - El Paso          6 24.1
 40%  32 Fresno State            44 23.5,    14 Oregon State            24 26.2
 38% 190 Tennessee State         27 22.8,   158 Alabama A&M              6 26.3
 38% 118 Akron                   31 26.2,    79 Ohio                    29 29.8
 38%  48 California - Los Angel  20 25.6,    42 Alabama                 17 29.4
 37%  78 Maryland                23 23.5,    39 North Carolina           7 28.7
 36% 102 Middle Tennessee State  37 22.3,    91 Vanderbilt              28 26.7
 31%  69 Colorado                41 22.5,    38 Colorado State          14 29.7
 30% 203 Central Michigan        42 12.2,   153 Eastern Kentucky        28 19.7
 25% 157 Northwestern State      30 23.2,   124 Southern                21 32.7
 22% 134 William & Mary          31 19.7,    84 Massachusetts           10 31.8
 18% 166 Bowling Green           20 15.7,    89 Missouri                13 32.1
 14% 191 Wyoming                 20 13.7,    54 Furman                  14 38.0
 11% 148 Wake Forest             21 11.5,    27 East Carolina           19 39.3
 10% 172 Rhode Island            10  8.1,    37 Delaware                 7 40.2
  
  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.72  17 0.91  19 1.11  33 1.07  12 1.01   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  86  69 1.03

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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