rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 123 Bowling Green over 228 Buffalo 88 Duquesne over 224 Saint Peter's 93 Eastern Illinois over 232 Indiana State 5 Florida over 223 Northeast Louisiana 3 Florida State over 92 Alabama - Birmingham 11 Louisville over 166 Western Carolina 91 McNeese State over 234 Prairie View 1 Miami - Florida over 157 Rutgers 2 Oklahoma over 196 North Texas 80-90% chance of victory: 30 Texas A&M over 140 Wyoming 126 Albany over 205 Saint John's 40 Arizona over 161 Idaho 214 Iona over 235 Canisius 145 Sacred Heart over 229 Central Connecticut 29 Clemson over 122 Wofford 13 Colorado over 84 San Jose State 54 Colorado State over 207 Nevada - Reno 85 Fairfield over 184 Fordham 83 Florida A&M over 213 Morgan State 36 Georgia Southern over 104 Delaware 135 Grambling over 197 Alabama A&M 132 Davidson over 216 Jacksonville 200 Jacksonville State over 231 Nicholls State 98 Bucknell over 230 Kent State 124 Kentucky over 191 Ball State 21 Louisiana State over 133 Utah State 68 Maryland over 190 Eastern Michigan 48 Michigan State over 168 Central Michigan 74 Minnesota over 189 Southwestern Louisiana 24 Georgia Tech over 187 Navy 4 Nebraska over 34 Notre Dame 41 Oregon State over 143 New Mexico State 22 Ohio State over 101 Akron 20 Oregon over 82 Utah 26 Pittsburgh over 95 South Florida 218 La Salle over 237 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 6 Kansas State over 70 Southern California 15 Texas Christian over 195 Southern Methodist 7 Toledo over 107 Temple 10 Texas over 65 North Carolina 97 Villanova over 170 Northeastern 72 William & Mary over 208 Virginia Military 158 Weber State over 220 Montana State 70-80% chance of victory: 57 North Carolina State over 99 Indiana 61 Air Force over 120 Tennessee Tech 179 Alabama State over 219 Alcorn State 52 Arizona State over 111 San Diego State 9 Tennessee over 56 Arkansas 71 Cincinnati over 163 Army 32 Brigham Young over 117 California 171 East Tennessee State over 203 Gardner - Webb 110 Furman over 137 Elon 86 Montana over 147 Hawaii 131 Holy Cross over 178 Georgetown 19 Illinois over 63 Northern Illinois 59 Iowa over 116 Miami - Ohio 50 Iowa State over 128 Northern Iowa 35 California - Los Angeles over 94 Kansas 125 Maine over 175 Colgate 87 Marshall over 144 Massachusetts 96 Memphis State over 138 Tennessee - Chattanooga 73 Oklahoma State over 106 Louisiana Tech 113 Rice over 149 Duke 152 Southern over 198 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 118 Texas - El Paso over 172 Texas Southern 134 Towson over 169 Lafayette 78 East Carolina over 188 Tulane 60-70% chance of victory: 37 Northwestern over 77 Nevada - Las Vegas 18 Auburn over 33 Mississippi 156 Arkansas State over 192 Baylor 44 Boise State over 43 Washington State 150 Morehead State over 209 Butler 136 Eastern Washington over 182 Connecticut 194 Eastern Kentucky over 199 Liberty 167 Hampton over 206 Howard 139 Missouri over 148 Southwest Texas State 141 Wagner over 186 Monmouth 146 Illinois State over 177 Murray State 64 James Madison over 121 New Hampshire 51 Robert Morris over 66 Dayton 185 Southern Illinois over 212 Southeast Missouri State 27 Boston College over 45 Stanford 47 Texas Tech over 55 New Mexico 58 Alabama over 115 Vanderbilt 8 Virginia Tech over 14 Western Michigan 17 Washington over 23 Michigan 80 West Virginia over 105 Ohio 12 Fresno State over 39 Wisconsin 50-60% chance of victory: 153 Sacramento State over 193 California Poly 16 South Carolina over 31 Georgia 53 Troy State over 81 Middle Tennessee State 62 Hofstra over 100 Rhode Island 46 Central Florida over 67 Syracuse 76 Wake Forest over 69 Appalachian State
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