rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 2 Nebraska over 125 Rice 12 Toledo over 149 Central Michigan 13 Colorado over 110 Kansas 49 Furman over 231 Virginia Military 8 Kansas State over 122 New Mexico State 5 Florida over 129 Kentucky 40 Lehigh over 157 Princeton 50 Boston College over 213 Navy 3 Florida State over 81 North Carolina 44 Middle Tennessee State over 225 Northeast Louisiana 6 Virginia Tech over 182 Rutgers 215 Saint Peter's over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 51 North Carolina State over 196 Southern Methodist 18 Texas Christian over 144 Northwestern State 14 Washington over 131 Idaho 21 Washington State over 120 California 23 Western Michigan over 161 Ball State 80-90% chance of victory: 64 Alabama - Birmingham over 164 Army 172 Valparaiso over 233 Austin Peay 160 Monmouth over 228 Central Connecticut 26 Clemson over 72 Virginia 66 Colorado State over 137 San Diego State 210 Connecticut over 232 Buffalo 115 New Hampshire over 211 Dartmouth 34 Northwestern over 154 Duke 138 Eastern Washington over 200 Weber State 159 Fairfield over 227 Siena 17 Georgia Southern over 163 Tennessee - Chattanooga 11 Texas over 152 Houston 221 La Salle over 235 Canisius 103 McNeese State over 206 Alcorn State 143 Jackson State over 226 Mississippi Valley State 32 Dayton over 174 Morehead State 128 Bethune - Cookman over 222 Norfolk State 57 Texas Tech over 177 North Texas 75 Northern Illinois over 155 Sam Houston State 20 Oregon over 60 Southern California 25 Purdue over 85 Akron 30 Southern Mississippi over 198 Southwestern Louisiana 88 Appalachian State over 209 The Citadel 116 Troy State over 229 Nicholls State 56 Central Florida over 176 Tulane 15 Fresno State over 124 Tulsa 62 West Virginia over 191 Kent State 74 Western Kentucky over 150 Southwest Missouri State 111 Wofford over 218 Charleston Southern 87 Yale over 166 Cornell 70-80% chance of victory: 217 Saint John's over 224 Stony Brook 61 Alabama over 89 Arkansas 133 Southern over 194 Alabama State 47 Arizona over 86 Nevada - Las Vegas 76 New Mexico over 170 Baylor 96 Duquesne over 193 Butler 100 Fordham over 186 Colgate 79 Eastern Illinois over 167 Eastern Kentucky 219 Eastern Michigan over 230 Indiana State 184 Gardner - Webb over 216 Samford 139 Illinois State over 195 Southeast Missouri State 94 Pennsylvania over 168 Lafayette 78 Cincinnati over 169 Miami - Ohio 148 California Poly over 207 Montana State 31 Notre Dame over 69 Michigan State 77 Robert Morris over 145 Sacred Heart 135 San Jose State over 179 Nevada - Reno 118 Southern Utah over 156 Northern Arizona 52 Texas A&M over 90 Oklahoma State 99 Albany over 158 Wagner 123 Florida A&M over 173 Tennessee State 60-70% chance of victory: 93 Bowling Green over 117 Temple 28 California - Los Angeles over 29 Ohio State 130 Bucknell over 175 Columbia 119 Delaware over 142 Massachusetts 46 East Carolina over 55 William & Mary 146 East Tennessee State over 165 Western Carolina 104 North Carolina A&T over 147 Elon 102 Harvard over 126 Brown 97 Hofstra over 105 Maine 70 Utah over 109 Indiana 92 James Madison over 112 Rhode Island 181 Delaware State over 214 Liberty 65 Memphis State over 67 South Florida 22 Michigan over 37 Illinois 22 Michigan over 23 Western Michigan 199 Morgan State over 205 Howard 141 Hawaii over 179 Nevada - Reno 36 Iowa State over 73 Ohio 192 Sacramento State over 202 Idaho State 140 Murray State over 190 Southern Illinois 185 Stephen F. Austin over 197 California State - North 136 Utah State over 134 Wyoming 41 Maryland over 83 Wake Forest 50-60% chance of victory: 16 South Carolina over 24 Mississippi State 183 Texas Southern over 203 Alabama A&M 188 Jacksonville State over 204 Arkansas State 82 Boise State over 63 Texas - El Paso 19 Louisville over 37 Illinois 59 Penn State over 54 Wisconsin 98 Grambling over 121 Portland State 48 Stanford over 43 Arizona State 33 Auburn over 45 Syracuse 113 Holy Cross over 132 Towson 101 Vanderbilt over 91 Richmond 80 Western Illinois over 107 Youngstown State
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