prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 49 Furman 65 55.7, 231 Virginia Military 7 3.0
92% 8 Kansas State 64 48.9, 122 New Mexico State 0 8.4
92% 6 Virginia Tech 50 59.5, 182 Rutgers 0 8.9
92% 2 Nebraska 48 49.5, 125 Rice 3 4.2
91% 215 Saint Peter's 27 40.5, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 9.9
91% 51 North Carolina State 26 36.0, 196 Southern Methodist 17 7.7
91% 50 Boston College 38 48.6, 213 Navy 21 18.8
91% 44 Middle Tennessee State 38 51.5, 225 Northeast Louisiana 20 10.7
91% 40 Lehigh 34 39.2, 157 Princeton 10 9.6
91% 21 Washington State 51 37.3, 120 California 20 11.6
91% 14 Washington 53 46.2, 131 Idaho 3 14.3
91% 13 Colorado 27 42.0, 110 Kansas 16 13.4
91% 12 Toledo 52 46.3, 149 Central Michigan 28 13.9
91% 5 Florida 44 51.9, 129 Kentucky 10 16.6
90% 17 Georgia Southern 70 47.8, 163 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 11.6
90% 11 Texas 53 45.2, 152 Houston 26 9.4
89% 116 Troy State 26 41.5, 229 Nicholls State 0 6.9
89% 111 Wofford 35 38.3, 218 Charleston Southern 10 10.7
89% 32 Dayton 42 43.0, 174 Morehead State 22 17.2
88% 62 West Virginia 34 41.7, 191 Kent State 14 14.9
87% 64 Alabama - Birmingham 55 33.8, 164 Army 3 12.8
87% 57 Texas Tech 42 28.8, 177 North Texas 14 7.8
87% 34 Northwestern 44 44.6, 154 Duke 7 23.3
86% 88 Appalachian State 8 31.7, 209 The Citadel 6 9.7
86% 56 Central Florida 36 46.1, 176 Tulane 29 26.5
86% 30 Southern Mississippi 35 37.9, 198 Southwestern Louisiana 10 7.0
85% 221 La Salle 21 31.9, 235 Canisius 14 11.6
85% 103 McNeese State 54 35.5, 206 Alcorn State 14 11.7
85% 74 Western Kentucky 23 23.0, 150 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 5.1
85% 25 Purdue 33 38.2, 85 Akron 14 18.9
84% 160 Monmouth 20 33.4, 228 Central Connecticut 14 16.3
84% 128 Bethune - Cookman 32 29.8, 222 Norfolk State 7 9.0
84% 15 Fresno State 37 38.6, 124 Tulsa 18 14.0
83% 159 Fairfield 42 38.1, 227 Siena 13 15.7
83% 87 Yale 40 33.6, 166 Cornell 13 16.2
82% 75 Northern Illinois 41 37.5, 155 Sam Houston State 16 17.9
80% 143 Jackson State 66 38.8, 226 Mississippi Valley Sta 36 20.2
80% 138 Eastern Washington 50 29.5, 200 Weber State 26 14.8
80% 115 New Hampshire 42 39.2, 211 Dartmouth 38 23.9
80% 20 Oregon 24 24.0, 60 Southern California 22 8.4
79% 79 Eastern Illinois 21 34.0, 167 Eastern Kentucky 17 21.1
79% 52 Texas A&M 21 29.0, 90 Oklahoma State 7 16.1
77% 96 Duquesne 33 45.2, 193 Butler 23 31.6
76% 94 Pennsylvania 37 32.0, 168 Lafayette 0 21.5
76% 61 Alabama 31 17.7, 89 Arkansas 10 8.6
76% 47 Arizona 38 26.2, 86 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 16.4
74% 217 Saint John's 16 19.0, 224 Stony Brook 13 10.3
73% 148 California Poly 34 29.6, 207 Montana State 6 21.2
73% 99 Albany 35 29.9, 158 Wagner 30 21.0
72% 133 Southern 32 37.2, 194 Alabama State 7 28.0
70% 119 Delaware 35 27.6, 142 Massachusetts 7 20.0
69% 93 Bowling Green 42 20.8, 117 Temple 23 13.6
68% 185 Stephen F. Austin 30 25.5, 197 California State - Nor 27 19.1
68% 41 Maryland 27 19.8, 83 Wake Forest 20 13.1
67% 140 Murray State 24 31.5, 190 Southern Illinois 20 24.5
66% 102 Harvard 27 38.5, 126 Brown 20 32.4
64% 192 Sacramento State 33 33.1, 202 Idaho State 27 27.6
64% 130 Bucknell 23 24.6, 175 Columbia 20 20.0
64% 104 North Carolina A&T 23 21.0, 147 Elon 7 16.4
64% 97 Hofstra 51 35.3, 105 Maine 44 30.6
64% 36 Iowa State 31 25.4, 73 Ohio 28 19.8
63% 70 Utah 28 25.8, 109 Indiana 26 21.8
63% 28 California - Los Angel 13 27.6, 29 Ohio State 6 23.2
63% 22 Michigan 38 19.5, 23 Western Michigan 21 15.9
62% 65 Memphis State 17 16.3, 67 South Florida 9 13.3
62% 46 East Carolina 38 20.3, 55 William & Mary 23 16.6
58% 16 South Carolina 16 22.1, 24 Mississippi State 14 20.6
57% 101 Vanderbilt 28 14.7, 91 Richmond 22 13.5
54% 98 Grambling 30 25.2, 121 Portland State 29 24.4
53% 188 Jacksonville State 31 26.0, 204 Arkansas State 28 25.3
53% 113 Holy Cross 17 15.4, 132 Towson 9 14.9
52% 48 Stanford 51 25.7, 43 Arizona State 28 25.2
51% 82 Boise State 42 33.0, 63 Texas - El Paso 17 32.8
49% 45 Syracuse 31 13.0, 33 Auburn 14 13.2
44% 107 Youngstown State 41 20.1, 80 Western Illinois 7 21.1
44% 37 Illinois 34 19.8, 19 Louisville 10 21.2
43% 203 Alabama A&M 24 16.3, 183 Texas Southern 10 17.4
42% 54 Wisconsin 18 22.5, 59 Penn State 6 24.1
41% 151 Northern Iowa 42 23.1, 161 Ball State 39 25.2
38% 134 Wyoming 43 22.5, 136 Utah State 42 25.9
37% 214 Liberty 34 32.8, 181 Delaware State 7 37.3
36% 205 Howard 41 17.8, 199 Morgan State 15 22.1
36% 179 Nevada - Reno 28 28.6, 141 Hawaii 20 33.7
32% 112 Rhode Island 16 15.2, 92 James Madison 12 21.2
31% 165 Western Carolina 20 21.6, 146 East Tennessee State 6 28.9
25% 173 Tennessee State 27 20.6, 123 Florida A&M 7 30.8
24% 230 Indiana State 21 15.1, 219 Eastern Michigan 14 25.9
24% 156 Northern Arizona 41 15.5, 118 Southern Utah 12 25.3
23% 195 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 14.3, 139 Illinois State 33 29.1
23% 186 Colgate 21 15.3, 100 Fordham 9 28.3
22% 216 Samford 49 18.8, 184 Gardner - Webb 41 30.6
22% 169 Miami - Ohio 21 19.1, 78 Cincinnati 14 32.3
22% 69 Michigan State 17 16.0, 31 Notre Dame 10 28.8
21% 170 Baylor 16 14.1, 76 New Mexico 13 28.6
21% 145 Sacred Heart 44 14.0, 77 Robert Morris 31 28.2
19% 137 San Diego State 14 12.0, 66 Colorado State 7 26.0
19% 72 Virginia 26 15.8, 26 Clemson 24 30.6
15% 232 Buffalo 37 13.9, 210 Connecticut 20 36.5
13% 233 Austin Peay 37 11.4, 172 Valparaiso 13 40.0
9% 144 Northwestern State 27 5.3, 18 Texas Christian 24 37.7
8% 81 North Carolina 41 10.5, 3 Florida State 9 42.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.98 22 1.12 20 0.65 30 1.02 16 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 101 73 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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