prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 145 Eastern Kentucky 42 49.3, 237 Tennessee - Martin 10 6.5
92% 131 Robert Morris 41 61.0, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 12.0
92% 41 Lehigh 58 61.3, 230 Central Connecticut 10 6.5
92% 38 Western Michigan 31 44.2, 219 Eastern Michigan 10 5.7
92% 12 Washington 31 49.2, 162 California 28 12.6
92% 10 Georgia Southern 31 73.4, 233 Virginia Military 14 5.8
92% 2 Virginia Tech 46 43.0, 61 Central Florida 14 7.4
92% 1 Miami - Florida 43 40.7, 68 Pittsburgh 21 8.7
91% 174 Monmouth 42 35.9, 234 Canisius 0 4.8
91% 59 Virginia 31 37.9, 176 Duke 10 9.9
91% 56 Boston College 31 43.4, 183 Army 10 13.5
91% 29 Iowa State 41 38.0, 139 Baylor 0 8.0
90% 4 Nebraska 36 43.1, 80 Missouri 3 11.2
89% 112 Albany 28 43.9, 224 Stony Brook 18 14.7
89% 16 Fresno State 38 44.2, 101 Louisiana Tech 28 18.2
88% 102 Harvard 38 34.2, 204 Lafayette 14 7.9
88% 84 South Florida 28 29.1, 173 North Texas 10 7.6
88% 81 Sacred Heart 34 40.5, 213 Siena 0 14.9
88% 78 Appalachian State 33 31.0, 185 East Tennessee State 14 6.4
88% 57 Middle Tennessee State 26 44.4, 194 Southwestern Louisiana 9 21.9
88% 14 Florida State 48 35.8, 86 Wake Forest 24 10.0
88% 7 Brigham Young 35 44.7, 96 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 21.4
87% 95 Akron 14 36.4, 186 Kent State 10 13.9
87% 87 North Carolina A&T 43 28.7, 225 Norfolk State 0 5.3
87% 50 Texas Christian 34 37.8, 170 Houston 17 13.4
86% 70 Pennsylvania 21 42.0, 201 Dartmouth 20 19.0
86% 28 Georgia 34 25.2, 90 Arkansas 23 7.7
86% 8 Texas 42 49.5, 71 Texas Tech 7 22.9
86% 6 Florida 52 39.6, 35 Mississippi State 0 19.6
85% 13 South Carolina 37 21.2, 52 Alabama 36 5.4
84% 74 Tennessee State 20 32.7, 160 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 13.4
83% 9 Tennessee 26 30.3, 46 Louisiana State 18 13.4
82% 144 Towson 20 27.4, 222 Morgan State 17 10.8
82% 36 Oregon 38 39.6, 141 Utah State 21 21.2
82% 19 Toledo 41 36.2, 63 Northern Illinois 20 19.7
81% 178 Morehead State 24 33.8, 227 Valparaiso 10 16.7
81% 168 Sam Houston State 68 39.1, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 21.4
81% 47 Maryland 32 29.5, 92 West Virginia 20 14.6
81% 33 Wisconsin 24 23.7, 79 Western Kentucky 6 7.6
80% 99 Hofstra 36 41.9, 156 Massachusetts 6 28.0
80% 40 Mississippi 42 35.9, 124 Kentucky 31 21.6
80% 25 Ohio State 27 34.1, 116 Indiana 14 19.4
80% 21 Furman 31 31.5, 104 Western Carolina 13 17.5
79% 158 New Mexico State 31 31.4, 228 Northeast Louisiana 0 16.6
79% 140 Western Illinois 38 27.1, 196 Southern Illinois 21 12.8
79% 135 Fordham 48 32.7, 184 Georgetown 13 18.6
79% 58 Utah 37 22.8, 117 New Mexico 16 10.0
79% 44 Louisville 38 22.5, 76 Memphis State 21 10.4
79% 42 Air Force 45 27.9, 107 San Diego State 21 15.9
79% 34 Dayton 42 30.8, 106 Duquesne 16 18.1
78% 169 Stephen F. Austin 31 26.1, 223 Indiana State 13 15.0
78% 163 Elon 27 38.2, 210 Gardner - Webb 14 22.5
78% 72 Texas - El Paso 26 31.2, 123 Tulsa 10 18.7
77% 83 William & Mary 38 35.7, 136 New Hampshire 28 23.4
77% 69 Arizona State 53 36.5, 122 San Jose State 15 24.2
77% 60 Boise State 45 38.3, 138 Idaho 13 26.2
77% 55 Marshall 37 32.6, 111 Bowling Green 31 17.6
76% 205 The Citadel 31 29.4, 226 South Carolina State 8 18.5
76% 190 Jacksonville 38 34.7, 229 Austin Peay 7 23.7
76% 167 Hampton 31 40.4, 206 Delaware State 20 28.8
76% 148 Fairfield 26 37.4, 215 Iona 21 25.2
76% 49 Auburn 24 27.2, 108 Vanderbilt 21 17.4
76% 23 Northwestern 27 30.5, 54 Michigan State 26 20.1
75% 155 Central Michigan 16 36.5, 214 Buffalo 8 25.1
74% 159 Wagner 34 21.2, 207 Saint John's 7 13.0
73% 24 Purdue 35 28.3, 75 Minnesota 28 20.0
69% 15 Michigan 45 24.2, 20 Illinois 20 17.7
68% 103 Eastern Illinois 44 23.8, 128 Tennessee Tech 33 17.3
67% 142 Bucknell 38 26.4, 164 Saint Mary's 6 20.0
67% 30 Syracuse 44 22.4, 45 East Carolina 30 16.8
67% 3 Oklahoma 38 22.4, 5 Kansas State 37 17.1
65% 121 Maine 13 28.8, 129 James Madison 3 23.6
65% 88 Oklahoma State 24 23.7, 93 Northwestern State 0 18.7
65% 31 Southern Mississippi 3 22.1, 43 Alabama - Birmingham 0 17.1
64% 119 Jackson State 26 32.1, 154 Alabama A&M 14 26.8
64% 17 Washington State 48 29.6, 37 Arizona 21 24.5
63% 82 Rhode Island 42 23.6, 130 Brown 38 19.7
63% 26 North Carolina 17 27.8, 62 North Carolina State 9 22.3
62% 53 Texas A&M 24 20.8, 51 Notre Dame 3 17.4
61% 85 Colorado State 42 25.4, 125 Wyoming 14 22.2
61% 65 Iowa 24 20.3, 67 Penn State 18 16.4
57% 180 Colgate 35 21.9, 171 Cornell 32 20.6
57% 161 Princeton 44 26.7, 151 Columbia 11 25.4
56% 134 Miami - Ohio 28 23.8, 147 Ball State 20 22.6
56% 27 Stanford 21 21.6, 48 Southern California 16 20.5
54% 212 Nicholls State 20 19.7, 200 Samford 16 19.0
47% 153 Southwest Texas State 20 18.6, 177 Illinois State 13 19.3
46% 73 Yale 23 16.6, 91 Holy Cross 22 17.2
44% 179 Florida A&M 53 16.0, 187 Howard 20 17.2
44% 98 Villanova 31 24.8, 105 Richmond 30 25.9
41% 126 Rice 27 19.6, 133 Hawaii 24 21.4
41% 22 California - Los Angel 38 23.3, 32 Oregon State 7 25.2
40% 110 Montana 29 26.9, 77 Eastern Washington 26 29.5
39% 143 Portland State 33 18.9, 115 Northern Arizona 30 21.5
37% 218 Weber State 38 25.6, 195 Sacramento State 31 30.5
36% 220 Montana State 34 25.7, 197 California State - Nor 27 30.8
31% 157 Tulane 41 30.6, 89 Southern 7 38.5
24% 221 Connecticut 20 16.1, 199 Rutgers 19 27.0
24% 188 Tennessee - Chattanoog 29 23.5, 120 Wofford 26 35.0
21% 152 Northern Iowa 30 22.1, 66 Youngstown State 11 36.0
19% 216 Saint Peter's 13 10.2, 175 Marist 7 24.3
19% 203 San Diego 31 20.4, 114 Drake 24 37.5
18% 39 Clemson 47 17.3, 11 Georgia Tech 44 32.7
16% 181 Northeastern 20 13.9, 64 Delaware 7 34.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.81 20 1.16 28 1.16 33 1.04 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 86 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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