2001 Week 6 (4-7 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 92% 170 Southeast Missouri Sta  45 52.7,   237 Tennessee - Martin      30  3.4
 92%  78 Sacred Heart            30 36.0,   224 Saint John's            14  3.1
 92%  46 Arizona State           63 45.0,   199 Southwestern Louisiana  27  8.8
 92%  39 Air Force               24 51.3,   200 Navy                    18 19.7
 92%  22 Syracuse                24 42.8,   198 Rutgers                 17  7.2
 92%  21 Dayton                  35 47.0,   179 San Diego               14  6.9
 92%  20 Georgia Southern        50 42.2,   135 Western Carolina        14 11.9
 92%  14 South Carolina          42 42.2,   130 Kentucky                 6 11.3
 92%  11 Brigham Young           54 59.2,   139 Utah State              34 22.0
 92%   8 Georgia Tech            37 57.1,   190 Duke                    10  8.5
 92%   3 Virginia Tech           35 49.8,    84 West Virginia            0 13.6
 92%   1 Miami - Florida         38 61.0,   118 Troy State               7  5.9
 91% 136 Albany                  28 47.8,   236 Canisius                 6  9.7
 91% 109 Wofford                 59 42.7,   223 Virginia Military       14 14.5
 91%  98 Youngstown State        35 37.0,   225 Indiana State           21  9.9
 91%  52 Lehigh                  38 43.5,   189 Cornell                 35 18.1
 91%  44 Mississippi             35 46.8,   202 Arkansas State          17 17.8
 91%  29 Texas A&M               16 36.7,   162 Baylor                  10  4.6
 90%  47 Boston College          33 40.2,   159 Temple                  10 15.6
 90%   4 Nebraska                48 36.9,    32 Iowa State              14  9.2
 89%  61 Middle Tennessee State  70 44.4,   177 Idaho                   58 19.0
 89%  16 Toledo                  48 35.6,   119 Ohio                    41 13.6
 88%  89 Arkansas                42 39.0,   204 Weber State             19 11.2
 88%   2 Florida                 44 37.7,    23 Louisiana State         15 16.0
 87% 123 Miami - Ohio            31 36.7,   214 Buffalo                 14 14.2
 87% 108 Bethune - Cookman       49 39.4,   217 Delaware State          24 17.1
 87%  77 Western Kentucky        24 24.8,   165 Elon                     7  5.9
 87%  62 Harvard                 35 32.9,   158 Northeastern            20 13.7
 87%  41 Western Michigan        31 31.5,   125 Akron                   14 10.7
 87%  13 Washington State        34 39.1,    66 Oregon State            27 17.8
 87%  12 Michigan                20 35.0,    80 Penn State               0 14.9
 85% 106 Northern Arizona        51 37.6,   188 Idaho State             26 18.7
 84% 146 Florida A&M             33 44.9,   230 South Carolina State    27 20.6
 84% 101 Bowling Green           24 31.3,   173 Kent State               7 14.5
 83% 153 Morehead State          28 33.8,   212 Davidson                17 16.7
 81% 129 Tennessee State         45 35.6,   192 Howard                   0 17.7
 80% 111 Montana                 42 35.0,   195 Sacramento State         7 21.3
 80%  17 Washington              27 28.6,    57 Southern California     24 15.1
 79% 149 Fairfield               27 28.2,   196 Marist                   6 15.3
 79%  91 Louisiana Tech          41 40.4,   150 San Jose State          20 26.6
 79%  75 Nevada - Las Vegas      27 35.2,   169 Nevada - Reno           12 20.6
 78%  97 Bucknell                51 21.7,   144 Towson                  10 11.3
 78%  18 North Carolina          24 30.0,    53 East Carolina           21 17.7
 77% 227 Central Connecticut     19 37.8,   233 Saint Francis - Pennsy   6 26.4
 77% 187 Butler                  38 33.4,   220 Valparaiso              21 22.0
 77%  31 Purdue                  23 30.4,    58 Iowa                    14 18.3
 76% 132 Southern                23 23.2,   167 Alabama A&M             20 13.7
 75%  90 Villanova               45 34.1,   126 James Madison           44 24.1
 75%  87 Rhode Island            56 25.4,   160 Hampton                  7 16.7
 75%  48 Furman                  28 27.1,    73 Appalachian State       22 17.2
 75%  40 Illinois                25 32.7,    64 Minnesota               14 22.6
 74%  92 Cincinnati              46 36.5,   131 Tulane                  33 27.3
 74%  51 Utah                    52 24.7,    83 South Florida           21 16.1
 73% 205 Saint Peter's           31 23.0,   221 Iona                     7 15.3
 73%  45 Louisville               7 28.3,    60 Colorado State           2 19.7
 73%  25 Oregon                  63 33.4,    63 Arizona                 28 24.0
 70%  49 Auburn                  16 26.7,    68 Mississippi State       14 19.4
 69% 138 Western Illinois        27 31.9,   161 Southern Utah           20 24.1
 69%  42 Alabama                 56 31.4,    71 Texas - El Paso          7 23.8
 66%  93 Maine                   14 22.4,   103 Richmond                 3 17.0
 64%  38 Maryland                41 21.6,    43 Virginia                21 16.8
 64%  28 Ohio State              38 27.9,    35 Northwestern            20 23.0
 63% 174 Jacksonville State      39 24.4,   208 Samford                  7 20.1
 63% 172 Southern Illinois       23 24.7,   175 Illinois State          17 20.6
 63%  94 Pennsylvania            43 22.0,    99 Holy Cross               7 18.1
 63%  67 Notre Dame              24 24.0,    72 Pittsburgh               7 19.9
 62% 113 Sam Houston State       30 27.6,   120 Northwestern State      14 23.4
 61% 229 Siena                   20 25.2,   228 La Salle                 6 22.3
 61% 213 Connecticut             19 23.6,   211 Eastern Michigan         0 20.8
 61% 168 East Tennessee State    23 10.6,   164 The Citadel             21  8.1
 61%  59 Hofstra                 34 36.8,    96 William & Mary          28 34.0
 60% 117 New Mexico              30 26.4,   151 Wyoming                 29 23.9
 60%   5 Oklahoma                14 31.5,     7 Texas                    3 29.2
 58% 156 Hawaii                  38 20.4,   178 Southern Methodist      31 18.9
 57% 152 Southwest Texas State   23 25.8,   145 Portland State          20 24.3
 54% 110 Delaware                49 26.5,   134 New Hampshire           36 25.8
 53% 124 Brown                   40 34.7,   107 Fordham                 23 34.0
 52% 133 Northern Iowa           27 26.5,   154 Southwest Missouri Sta   3 26.2
 48% 207 Lafayette               31 21.8,   191 Columbia                14 22.2
 47%  56 Marshall                37 35.0,    70 Northern Illinois       15 35.6
 46% 137 Tennessee Tech          15 24.3,   114 Murray State            12 25.1
 37% 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   28 14.8,   182 Texas Southern          22 18.4
 37% 121 San Diego State         40 23.0,    81 Eastern Illinois         7 27.7
 34%  65 Memphis State           22  9.9,    37 Southern Mississippi    17 14.7
 33% 181 Army                    28 23.7,   143 Houston                 14 30.1
 29% 100 North Carolina State    17 17.1,    74 Wake Forest             14 25.1
 28% 226 Northeast Louisiana     19  9.8,   185 North Texas             17 17.7
 28% 209 Charleston Southern     28 16.5,   184 Jacksonville             7 24.2
 27% 155 New Mexico State        24 16.6,   122 Tulsa                    7 26.4
 27%  88 Kansas                  34 24.8,    69 Texas Tech              31 33.1
 27%  79 Central Florida         24 13.5,    34 Alabama - Birmingham     7 21.7
 26% 163 Colgate                 35 16.9,   128 Princeton               10 25.7
 26% 104 Missouri                41 13.6,    82 Oklahoma State          38 21.5
 23%  26 Georgia                 26 15.7,     9 Tennessee               24 26.8
 21% 216 Stony Brook             52 18.1,   141 Wagner                  30 32.1
 21% 102 Rice                    45 19.0,    27 Boise State             14 32.5
 20% 197 Georgetown              15 20.1,   112 Duquesne                13 33.8
 18%  19 Colorado                16 17.7,     6 Kansas State             6 34.2
 17% 166 Stephen F. Austin       26 15.2,    85 McNeese State           14 31.5
 13% 194 Alabama State           61 24.7,   105 Jackson State           58 45.1
 13% 116 Indiana                 63 15.6,    36 Wisconsin               32 37.1
 10% 219 Montana State           48 17.2,    95 Eastern Washington      38 42.3
  9% 203 Dartmouth               32 12.8,    76 Yale                    27 40.9
  8% 218 Morgan State            52  6.3,    54 North Carolina A&T      42 39.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 1.22  20 1.25  31 0.85  21 0.89  23 0.95   0 0.00
  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104  78 0.97
  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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