rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 1 Florida over 32 Auburn 3 Nebraska over 160 Baylor 74 Boise State over 188 Tulsa 37 Marshall over 223 Buffalo 30 Dayton over 166 Butler 91 Western Kentucky over 224 Indiana State 5 Oklahoma over 79 Kansas 73 Lehigh over 177 Towson 101 Sam Houston State over 216 Nicholls State 174 Monmouth over 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 64 Bethune - Cookman over 229 South Carolina State 153 Morehead State over 236 Tennessee - Martin 87 Tennessee State over 233 Mississippi Valley State 4 Virginia Tech over 46 Boston College 80-90% chance of victory: 54 Air Force over 157 Wyoming 50 Alabama - Birmingham over 106 Cincinnati 55 East Carolina over 162 Army 10 Oregon over 128 California 45 Central Florida over 202 Liberty 204 Charleston Southern over 232 Austin Peay 61 Pennsylvania over 209 Columbia 2 Miami - Florida over 15 Florida State 75 Memphis State over 164 Houston 42 Louisiana State over 132 Kentucky 63 Bucknell over 163 Lafayette 82 Montana over 178 Saint Mary's 114 Murray State over 173 Eastern Kentucky 81 Rice over 193 Navy 65 Louisiana Tech over 185 Nevada - Reno 19 Brigham Young over 111 New Mexico 97 New Mexico State over 156 Idaho 60 Middle Tennessee State over 197 North Texas 62 Northern Iowa over 171 Southern Illinois 7 Texas over 92 Oklahoma State 80 Sacred Heart over 181 Stony Brook 129 Robert Morris over 221 Saint John's 219 Siena over 237 Canisius 107 South Florida over 212 Connecticut 6 Kansas State over 95 Texas Tech 43 Furman over 182 The Citadel 184 Wagner over 227 Central Connecticut 104 Northern Arizona over 205 Weber State 41 Western Michigan over 112 Bowling Green 108 Youngstown State over 207 Southwest Missouri State 109 Grambling over 189 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 70-80% chance of victory: 13 Georgia Tech over 38 Maryland 20 Georgia Southern over 77 Appalachian State 17 South Carolina over 76 Arkansas 116 Brown over 161 Princeton 9 California - Los Angeles over 22 Washington 99 Ohio over 180 Central Michigan 11 Colorado over 34 Texas A&M 100 Harvard over 175 Cornell 90 Wake Forest over 159 Duke 122 Eastern Illinois over 195 Southeast Missouri State 158 Ball State over 225 Eastern Michigan 187 Georgetown over 211 Davidson 138 Holy Cross over 167 Dartmouth 125 Western Illinois over 179 Illinois State 89 Northern Illinois over 190 Kent State 201 Saint Peter's over 230 La Salle 8 Michigan over 24 Purdue 47 Michigan State over 67 Iowa 59 Mississippi State over 102 Troy State 33 Iowa State over 86 Missouri 183 Montana State over 210 Sacramento State 203 Hampton over 231 Norfolk State 25 North Carolina over 68 Virginia 88 Maine over 154 Northeastern 48 Northwestern over 69 Minnesota 49 Notre Dame over 93 West Virginia 28 Ohio State over 70 Wisconsin 58 Oregon State over 78 Arizona 56 Rhode Island over 103 William & Mary 152 Temple over 176 Rutgers 52 Texas Christian over 117 Tulane 140 Drake over 214 Valparaiso 18 Georgia over 84 Vanderbilt 60-70% chance of victory: 27 Clemson over 72 North Carolina State 217 Alcorn State over 226 Samford 192 Arkansas State over 206 Southwestern Louisiana 141 California Poly over 149 Southern Utah 29 Fresno State over 57 Colorado State 53 Hofstra over 94 Delaware 144 Elon over 148 Northwestern State 139 Portland State over 200 Idaho State 35 Illinois over 71 Indiana 199 Marist over 228 Iona 127 Jackson State over 151 Southern 120 James Madison over 115 Richmond 133 New Hampshire over 168 Massachusetts 16 Alabama over 44 Mississippi 85 Nevada - Las Vegas over 83 San Diego State 105 North Carolina A&T over 135 Florida A&M 131 Fairfield over 172 San Diego 165 San Jose State over 169 Southern Methodist 31 Southern California over 40 Arizona State 12 Washington State over 26 Stanford 137 Stephen F. Austin over 150 Jacksonville State 186 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 220 Virginia Military 126 Western Carolina over 121 Wofford 118 Yale over 142 Fordham 50-60% chance of victory: 119 Texas - El Paso over 147 Hawaii 110 Akron over 134 Miami - Ohio 39 Syracuse over 66 Pittsburgh 146 Southwest Texas State over 124 McNeese State
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