prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 174 Monmouth 28 34.4, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 6.1
92% 87 Tennessee State 41 65.5, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 3 9.9
92% 37 Marshall 34 49.6, 223 Buffalo 14 10.2
92% 30 Dayton 45 48.5, 166 Butler 7 17.6
92% 5 Oklahoma 38 41.6, 79 Kansas 10 11.1
92% 3 Nebraska 48 51.6, 160 Baylor 7 5.0
91% 153 Morehead State 31 52.7, 236 Tennessee - Martin 13 14.4
91% 91 Western Kentucky 22 37.0, 224 Indiana State 9 8.6
91% 73 Lehigh 47 36.5, 177 Towson 12 10.4
91% 64 Bethune - Cookman 24 54.0, 229 South Carolina State 10 16.8
91% 4 Virginia Tech 34 40.8, 46 Boston College 20 13.2
90% 107 South Florida 40 38.9, 212 Connecticut 21 12.9
90% 101 Sam Houston State 35 36.3, 216 Nicholls State 32 12.6
90% 74 Boise State 41 34.9, 188 Tulsa 10 7.3
90% 61 Pennsylvania 35 43.3, 209 Columbia 7 17.0
90% 45 Central Florida 63 40.9, 202 Liberty 0 4.2
90% 10 Oregon 48 44.3, 128 California 7 19.8
89% 54 Air Force 24 42.0, 157 Wyoming 13 18.7
89% 43 Furman 30 34.4, 182 The Citadel 7 7.6
88% 80 Sacred Heart 42 37.1, 181 Stony Brook 24 14.0
88% 62 Northern Iowa 19 38.5, 171 Southern Illinois 14 12.7
87% 108 Youngstown State 41 23.9, 207 Southwest Missouri Sta 20 3.5
87% 82 Montana 49 37.8, 178 Saint Mary's 19 16.0
87% 81 Rice 21 35.7, 193 Navy 13 16.1
87% 7 Texas 45 37.0, 92 Oklahoma State 17 15.8
86% 129 Robert Morris 28 30.5, 221 Saint John's 0 11.6
86% 65 Louisiana Tech 45 39.9, 185 Nevada - Reno 42 19.6
86% 63 Bucknell 17 30.1, 163 Lafayette 16 11.5
85% 55 East Carolina 49 36.3, 162 Army 26 18.5
84% 19 Brigham Young 24 42.1, 111 New Mexico 20 23.9
83% 204 Charleston Southern 36 29.8, 232 Austin Peay 21 13.9
83% 104 Northern Arizona 42 37.5, 205 Weber State 32 20.8
83% 41 Western Michigan 37 28.9, 112 Bowling Green 28 10.2
82% 184 Wagner 24 37.5, 227 Central Connecticut 17 21.4
82% 42 Louisiana State 29 36.8, 132 Kentucky 25 22.2
82% 2 Miami - Florida 49 37.5, 15 Florida State 27 22.5
81% 109 Grambling 60 30.1, 189 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 15.6
81% 97 New Mexico State 46 37.3, 156 Idaho 39 21.9
81% 75 Memphis State 52 30.9, 164 Houston 33 17.1
80% 158 Ball State 35 26.4, 225 Eastern Michigan 14 12.0
79% 122 Eastern Illinois 12 41.6, 195 Southeast Missouri Sta 0 25.6
78% 25 North Carolina 30 30.0, 68 Virginia 24 17.6
78% 18 Georgia 30 32.1, 84 Vanderbilt 14 19.3
78% 11 Colorado 31 22.5, 34 Texas A&M 21 11.0
78% 8 Michigan 24 32.9, 24 Purdue 10 20.2
77% 100 Harvard 26 39.9, 175 Cornell 6 28.3
77% 56 Rhode Island 34 27.4, 103 William & Mary 31 16.0
77% 49 Notre Dame 34 27.3, 93 West Virginia 24 15.3
77% 20 Georgia Southern 27 30.3, 77 Appalachian State 18 19.6
76% 201 Saint Peter's 23 18.1, 230 La Salle 7 8.6
76% 116 Brown 35 40.2, 161 Princeton 24 29.5
76% 99 Ohio 34 36.4, 180 Central Michigan 3 24.9
75% 90 Wake Forest 42 27.9, 159 Duke 35 18.6
75% 9 California - Los Angel 35 27.0, 22 Washington 13 18.0
73% 183 Montana State 20 32.2, 210 Sacramento State 0 22.8
73% 152 Temple 30 25.2, 176 Rutgers 5 17.1
73% 138 Holy Cross 49 27.4, 167 Dartmouth 17 18.1
73% 88 Maine 21 24.0, 154 Northeastern 9 16.2
72% 58 Oregon State 38 31.8, 78 Arizona 3 23.0
72% 48 Northwestern 23 35.8, 69 Minnesota 17 27.8
72% 47 Michigan State 31 22.1, 67 Iowa 28 13.9
71% 187 Georgetown 26 22.3, 211 Davidson 24 15.4
71% 125 Western Illinois 33 30.1, 179 Illinois State 23 22.6
71% 33 Iowa State 20 31.8, 86 Missouri 14 23.2
70% 105 North Carolina A&T 55 28.3, 135 Florida A&M 23 20.0
69% 192 Arkansas State 26 30.2, 206 Southwestern Louisiana 20 22.6
69% 118 Yale 36 26.7, 142 Fordham 27 19.7
68% 127 Jackson State 24 37.4, 151 Southern 21 30.1
67% 217 Alcorn State 17 24.7, 226 Samford 7 18.1
67% 27 Clemson 45 27.0, 72 North Carolina State 37 20.7
66% 141 California Poly 34 27.2, 149 Southern Utah 24 21.4
66% 137 Stephen F. Austin 44 20.7, 150 Jacksonville State 37 15.7
66% 53 Hofstra 39 34.2, 94 Delaware 14 28.6
64% 29 Fresno State 25 26.1, 57 Colorado State 22 21.7
64% 12 Washington State 45 35.4, 26 Stanford 39 31.1
62% 133 New Hampshire 35 32.4, 168 Massachusetts 24 28.7
62% 126 Western Carolina 31 28.2, 121 Wofford 28 24.6
62% 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 22.2, 83 San Diego State 3 18.8
62% 35 Illinois 35 34.5, 71 Indiana 14 31.1
62% 31 Southern California 48 27.8, 40 Arizona State 17 24.2
59% 39 Syracuse 42 23.3, 66 Pittsburgh 10 21.4
48% 124 McNeese State 21 18.4, 146 Southwest Texas State 3 18.7
46% 191 Alabama State 27 27.9, 198 Texas Southern 24 28.8
46% 147 Hawaii 66 36.2, 119 Texas - El Paso 7 37.1
42% 134 Miami - Ohio 30 22.1, 110 Akron 27 23.7
38% 148 Northwestern State 24 16.1, 144 Elon 6 19.5
37% 169 Southern Methodist 24 23.8, 165 San Jose State 17 28.3
37% 115 Richmond 20 15.9, 120 James Madison 17 19.4
34% 172 San Diego 38 19.9, 131 Fairfield 35 25.3
33% 220 Virginia Military 19 28.8, 186 Tennessee - Chattanoog 16 34.5
31% 200 Idaho State 23 36.4, 139 Portland State 17 43.8
31% 44 Mississippi 27 23.8, 16 Alabama 24 31.2
30% 228 Iona 18 18.7, 199 Marist 15 25.8
27% 231 Norfolk State 28 19.1, 203 Hampton 20 28.0
24% 117 Tulane 48 27.8, 52 Texas Christian 22 37.9
23% 102 Troy State 21 18.4, 59 Mississippi State 9 29.9
22% 76 Arkansas 10 17.2, 17 South Carolina 7 28.6
22% 70 Wisconsin 20 15.7, 28 Ohio State 17 27.8
21% 190 Kent State 44 17.8, 89 Northern Illinois 34 32.3
21% 38 Maryland 20 21.7, 13 Georgia Tech 17 34.7
20% 214 Valparaiso 17 19.3, 140 Drake 7 32.5
20% 173 Eastern Kentucky 21 18.7, 114 Murray State 13 34.8
17% 106 Cincinnati 31 11.2, 50 Alabama - Birmingham 17 26.3
12% 197 North Texas 24 20.0, 60 Middle Tennessee State 21 42.6
12% 95 Texas Tech 38 17.4, 6 Kansas State 19 39.4
11% 237 Canisius 34 5.3, 219 Siena 17 32.0
8% 32 Auburn 23 12.5, 1 Florida 20 40.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.36 24 1.02 33 1.00 31 0.98 14 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 107 81 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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