prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 168 Albany 24 42.8, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 7.8
92% 135 Southern 49 51.0, 235 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 9.9
92% 111 Western Carolina 44 41.6, 225 Virginia Military 17 8.0
92% 95 Duquesne 55 47.6, 231 Siena 0 5.5
92% 90 South Florida 68 42.4, 217 Liberty 37 9.5
92% 71 Appalachian State 51 41.0, 202 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 8.8
92% 57 Grambling 43 42.7, 206 Texas Southern 3 5.8
92% 54 Southern Mississippi 58 40.5, 173 Houston 14 12.1
92% 40 Dayton 56 62.6, 229 Canisius 18 4.6
92% 30 Oregon State 19 46.9, 157 California 10 15.5
92% 1 Miami - Florida 45 52.3, 82 West Virginia 3 10.0
91% 53 Toledo 21 42.9, 178 Navy 20 15.2
90% 4 Texas 35 44.4, 74 Missouri 16 20.0
89% 110 Harvard 31 41.2, 207 Dartmouth 21 17.5
89% 55 Boise State 49 46.9, 161 Nevada - Reno 7 22.2
88% 52 Marshall 50 39.0, 143 Akron 33 17.8
88% 38 Hofstra 35 49.6, 131 New Hampshire 20 29.0
87% 216 Samford 31 32.9, 234 Tennessee - Martin 8 12.9
87% 106 Sacred Heart 49 35.5, 211 Iona 7 16.3
86% 179 Morehead State 29 46.3, 230 Austin Peay 24 24.4
86% 145 Jackson State 14 39.0, 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 9 17.8
85% 136 California Poly 21 32.4, 218 Alcorn State 12 14.8
85% 66 Nevada - Las Vegas 47 32.3, 170 Wyoming 26 13.8
85% 64 Montana 33 40.5, 144 Portland State 13 22.2
85% 62 Minnesota 66 38.9, 153 Murray State 10 17.0
85% 26 Kansas State 40 38.9, 85 Kansas 6 19.2
85% 13 Brigham Young 59 36.5, 97 San Diego State 21 19.2
85% 2 Florida 24 37.5, 18 Georgia 10 19.2
84% 101 Ball State 10 33.9, 199 Connecticut 5 15.8
84% 48 Lehigh 47 40.8, 120 Holy Cross 14 23.1
83% 126 Robert Morris 49 33.9, 191 Wagner 30 16.6
83% 86 Troy State 20 37.3, 165 Southern Utah 17 18.9
82% 129 Florida A&M 47 37.4, 209 Hampton 35 22.1
82% 36 Texas Tech 63 32.8, 122 Baylor 19 18.0
81% 189 Southwestern Louisiana 17 30.4, 226 Northeast Louisiana 12 14.7
80% 147 Eastern Washington 63 42.6, 194 California State - Nor 35 29.7
79% 105 Northern Illinois 33 37.6, 195 Central Michigan 24 24.5
79% 99 Vanderbilt 42 33.2, 176 Duke 28 20.6
79% 24 Colorado 22 27.9, 94 Oklahoma State 19 15.8
78% 220 Norfolk State 7 31.3, 232 Howard 0 17.8
78% 137 Monmouth 24 19.5, 201 Towson 17 7.9
78% 10 Florida State 52 34.8, 29 Maryland 31 20.8
77% 159 Northeastern 40 28.7, 192 Saint Mary's 13 18.0
77% 139 San Jose State 63 27.2, 182 Tulsa 27 15.4
77% 58 North Carolina State 24 29.4, 81 Virginia 0 18.5
77% 32 Purdue 32 34.2, 61 Northwestern 27 22.7
77% 8 Michigan 32 28.6, 49 Iowa 26 17.6
76% 21 Texas A&M 24 26.8, 50 Iowa State 21 16.2
75% 169 Elon 39 22.5, 203 Charleston Southern 16 11.8
75% 151 Southern Methodist 40 28.6, 181 Texas - El Paso 14 18.7
75% 41 Pennsylvania 27 31.6, 87 Brown 14 22.3
74% 17 Boston College 21 25.8, 42 Notre Dame 17 17.2
74% 9 Tennessee 17 24.4, 15 South Carolina 10 15.8
71% 140 Northern Arizona 35 32.2, 185 Montana State 28 24.7
71% 47 Clemson 21 32.6, 92 Wake Forest 14 24.9
71% 44 Southern California 41 28.1, 80 Arizona 34 20.1
68% 163 Tennessee Tech 41 21.2, 186 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 14.8
68% 125 McNeese State 35 28.1, 146 Sam Houston State 23 21.0
67% 130 Colgate 20 33.5, 171 Lafayette 16 26.9
67% 39 North Carolina A&T 16 37.3, 75 Bethune - Cookman 14 30.6
67% 37 Louisville 28 28.1, 73 Cincinnati 13 21.6
67% 6 Nebraska 20 27.9, 7 Oklahoma 10 21.8
66% 124 Northwestern State 42 33.8, 134 Jacksonville State 17 27.6
65% 115 Villanova 47 42.9, 133 Massachusetts 13 37.4
65% 112 Middle Tennessee State 39 41.0, 119 New Mexico State 35 36.1
64% 100 Louisiana Tech 41 36.3, 104 Rice 38 31.3
63% 108 Eastern Illinois 52 25.7, 117 Tennessee State 49 20.6
63% 33 Washington 33 36.1, 56 Arizona State 31 32.2
62% 118 Wofford 13 21.2, 156 The Citadel 0 17.7
61% 88 William & Mary 42 26.5, 83 Maine 20 23.8
60% 121 Pittsburgh 33 22.7, 149 Temple 7 20.5
60% 12 Oregon 24 38.7, 27 Washington State 17 36.8
57% 96 New Mexico 52 29.3, 79 Air Force 33 27.9
54% 152 Drake 41 29.3, 166 Butler 39 28.3
51% 60 Hawaii 38 31.8, 51 Fresno State 34 31.5
49% 228 Eastern Michigan 24 17.8, 224 Buffalo 20 18.0
47% 200 Marist 38 16.3, 184 Georgetown 35 16.8
41% 187 San Diego 20 17.5, 197 Valparaiso 17 19.0
41% 102 Richmond 28 14.9, 76 Rhode Island 0 16.6
40% 204 Indiana State 20 19.7, 180 Southern Illinois 14 21.7
40% 155 Alabama State 35 22.5, 138 Alabama A&M 0 24.5
39% 213 South Carolina State 42 29.7, 188 Delaware State 21 32.7
39% 63 Michigan State 42 20.8, 65 Wisconsin 28 23.8
38% 233 La Salle 28 8.4, 227 Saint John's 12 11.4
37% 91 Western Kentucky 24 16.8, 84 Youngstown State 14 20.4
36% 215 Arkansas State 34 36.7, 177 Idaho 31 41.2
36% 93 Alabama - Birmingham 17 16.7, 78 Memphis State 14 21.1
33% 132 Fordham 17 20.9, 77 Bucknell 12 26.6
33% 70 Arkansas 42 19.3, 23 Auburn 17 25.1
33% 69 Penn State 29 15.8, 28 Ohio State 27 21.5
32% 113 Miami - Ohio 25 18.9, 59 Western Michigan 11 25.5
31% 208 Weber State 42 31.6, 160 Idaho State 17 38.1
29% 214 Jacksonville 29 23.0, 196 Stony Brook 20 30.8
26% 193 Cornell 10 21.3, 164 Princeton 7 30.6
25% 68 Colorado State 19 12.8, 19 Utah 17 21.6
25% 16 Stanford 38 25.7, 5 California - Los Angel 28 36.0
24% 175 Illinois State 42 24.3, 107 Northern Iowa 14 34.8
23% 223 Nicholls State 33 12.2, 172 Southwest Texas State 14 22.8
23% 150 Army 42 32.0, 72 Tulane 35 42.4
23% 35 Mississippi 35 15.7, 11 Louisiana State 24 27.7
20% 205 Columbia 28 12.5, 128 Yale 14 27.1
18% 162 Kent State 24 17.9, 103 Ohio 14 34.0
14% 22 Syracuse 22 13.9, 3 Virginia Tech 14 31.9
12% 198 Southwest Missouri Sta 43 7.4, 123 Western Illinois 28 29.2
12% 154 Utah State 30 17.9, 34 Central Florida 27 39.2
9% 174 East Tennessee State 19 11.2, 46 Georgia Southern 16 36.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.80 25 0.86 30 0.92 27 1.00 13 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 106 75 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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