rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 94 Brown over 213 Dartmouth 11 Louisville over 204 Houston 65 Duquesne over 197 Marist 175 Murray State over 236 Tennessee - Martin 32 Pittsburgh over 217 Rutgers 78 Sacred Heart over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 146 Saint Peter's over 231 Canisius 41 South Florida over 156 Western Illinois 28 Virginia Tech over 160 Temple 9 Tennessee over 92 Memphis State 4 Texas over 126 Kansas 8 Brigham Young over 154 Wyoming 80-90% chance of victory: 30 Alabama over 106 Mississippi State 1 Miami - Florida over 21 Boston College 38 Southern California over 131 California 25 East Carolina over 100 Cincinnati 103 East Tennessee State over 191 Tennessee - Chattanooga 112 Eastern Kentucky over 200 Samford 49 Georgia Southern over 161 Elon 6 Florida State over 44 North Carolina State 46 Furman over 113 Wofford 124 Bethune - Cookman over 226 Howard 16 Louisiana State over 83 Middle Tennessee State 98 Maine over 155 Massachusetts 91 Missouri over 157 Baylor 148 Monmouth over 229 Saint John's 80 Montana over 163 Weber State 138 New Mexico State over 219 Arkansas State 90 Grambling over 185 Nicholls State 72 North Carolina A&T over 173 Hampton 105 Troy State over 212 Northeast Louisiana 5 Oklahoma over 34 Texas A&M 14 Texas Tech over 96 Oklahoma State 119 Rice over 203 Tulsa 128 Northern Arizona over 211 Sacramento State 42 Dayton over 196 Saint Mary's 118 San Jose State over 166 Nevada - Reno 3 Florida over 23 South Carolina 116 Southwest Missouri State over 205 Southern Illinois 48 Fresno State over 150 Southern Methodist 82 Louisiana Tech over 177 Texas - El Paso 104 Southern over 208 Texas Southern 152 The Citadel over 220 Virginia Military 29 Utah over 120 San Diego State 15 Georgia Tech over 101 Virginia 62 Western Kentucky over 147 Northern Iowa 74 William & Mary over 176 James Madison 70-80% chance of victory: 66 Toledo over 93 Western Michigan 71 Colorado State over 102 Air Force 87 Robert Morris over 162 Albany 164 Alabama A&M over 223 Alcorn State 18 Stanford over 75 Arizona 142 Army over 183 Buffalo 36 Lehigh over 95 Bucknell 187 Central Michigan over 222 Eastern Michigan 133 Utah State over 190 Connecticut 215 Davidson over 228 Austin Peay 69 Delaware over 97 Richmond 179 Fairfield over 221 La Salle 27 Georgia over 57 Auburn 61 Pennsylvania over 122 Harvard 52 Hofstra over 79 Villanova 13 Illinois over 45 Penn State 26 Maryland over 59 Clemson 35 Marshall over 85 Miami - Ohio 19 Michigan over 37 Minnesota 39 Michigan State over 55 Indiana 2 Nebraska over 7 Kansas State 24 North Carolina over 70 Wake Forest 132 North Texas over 178 Southwestern Louisiana 107 Sam Houston State over 159 Jacksonville State 180 San Diego over 202 Wagner 10 Syracuse over 40 West Virginia 114 Fordham over 182 Towson 60-70% chance of victory: 20 Washington State over 54 Arizona State 53 Arkansas over 51 Central Florida 140 Ball State over 141 Kent State 145 Akron over 183 Buffalo 171 California Poly over 192 California State - North 230 Charleston Southern over 232 Liberty 165 Cornell over 167 Columbia 134 Eastern Washington over 144 Portland State 181 Georgetown over 193 Lafayette 174 Illinois State over 184 Indiana State 33 Colorado over 76 Iowa State 189 Montana State over 198 Idaho State 201 South Carolina State over 225 Morgan State 137 Tulane over 158 Navy 77 New Mexico over 89 Nevada - Las Vegas 139 Northeastern over 143 New Hampshire 47 Iowa over 88 Northwestern 129 Bowling Green over 170 Ohio 50 Ohio State over 58 Purdue 22 Washington over 60 Oregon State 153 Princeton over 149 Yale 151 Southern Utah over 168 Butler 169 Stephen F. Austin over 188 Southwest Texas State 50-60% chance of victory: 81 Alabama - Birmingham over 68 Texas Christian 84 Appalachian State over 73 Western Carolina 17 California - Los Angeles over 12 Oregon 67 Hawaii over 63 Boise State 136 Holy Cross over 121 Colgate 195 Drake over 207 Jacksonville 109 McNeese State over 99 Northwestern State 214 Central Connecticut over 224 Stony Brook 127 Tennessee Tech over 115 Tennessee State 111 Vanderbilt over 108 Kentucky 210 Delaware State over 218 Norfolk State
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