prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 175 Murray State 35 56.4, 236 Tennessee - Martin 17 17.1
92% 146 Saint Peter's 63 39.0, 231 Canisius 0 6.7
92% 78 Sacred Heart 58 57.7, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 2.4
92% 11 Louisville 34 60.5, 204 Houston 10 8.4
92% 8 Brigham Young 41 56.4, 154 Wyoming 34 22.5
92% 4 Texas 59 52.5, 126 Kansas 0 7.7
91% 32 Pittsburgh 42 46.3, 217 Rutgers 0 8.2
91% 28 Virginia Tech 35 36.6, 160 Temple 0 8.4
91% 9 Tennessee 49 36.0, 92 Memphis State 28 8.8
90% 94 Brown 41 50.2, 213 Dartmouth 16 22.1
90% 65 Duquesne 21 39.2, 197 Marist 10 13.0
90% 41 South Florida 48 47.0, 156 Western Illinois 17 19.2
89% 148 Monmouth 34 23.3, 229 Saint John's 0 2.8
89% 103 East Tennessee State 32 31.7, 191 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 8.4
89% 74 William & Mary 17 37.2, 176 James Madison 10 12.5
89% 29 Utah 17 31.9, 120 San Diego State 3 9.1
88% 138 New Mexico State 28 40.5, 219 Arkansas State 17 19.0
88% 124 Bethune - Cookman 29 38.6, 226 Howard 18 16.7
88% 119 Rice 59 38.1, 203 Tulsa 32 16.9
88% 104 Southern 7 32.4, 208 Texas Southern 6 12.2
88% 5 Oklahoma 31 31.7, 34 Texas A&M 10 9.4
88% 1 Miami - Florida 18 35.8, 21 Boston College 7 15.7
87% 105 Troy State 44 33.0, 212 Northeast Louisiana 12 12.6
87% 80 Montana 38 40.5, 163 Weber State 23 19.6
87% 49 Georgia Southern 27 35.5, 161 Elon 21 12.5
86% 152 The Citadel 49 24.5, 220 Virginia Military 7 6.5
86% 30 Alabama 24 28.2, 106 Mississippi State 17 9.5
86% 16 Louisiana State 30 40.1, 83 Middle Tennessee State 14 20.6
86% 3 Florida 54 31.9, 23 South Carolina 17 13.4
85% 112 Eastern Kentucky 33 37.3, 200 Samford 11 16.5
85% 91 Missouri 41 36.2, 157 Baylor 24 18.1
84% 90 Grambling 37 33.5, 185 Nicholls State 28 16.0
84% 48 Fresno State 38 34.7, 150 Southern Methodist 13 15.7
84% 46 Furman 45 32.4, 113 Wofford 14 15.5
83% 82 Louisiana Tech 53 50.5, 177 Texas - El Paso 30 34.3
82% 116 Southwest Missouri Sta 25 28.9, 205 Southern Illinois 24 13.3
82% 98 Maine 37 31.7, 155 Massachusetts 7 16.1
82% 38 Southern California 55 33.6, 131 California 14 18.7
81% 128 Northern Arizona 50 37.8, 211 Sacramento State 40 23.6
81% 25 East Carolina 28 36.9, 100 Cincinnati 26 22.7
81% 14 Texas Tech 49 33.1, 96 Oklahoma State 30 18.7
80% 132 North Texas 42 26.5, 178 Southwestern Louisiana 17 13.4
80% 118 San Jose State 64 39.9, 166 Nevada - Reno 45 26.0
80% 107 Sam Houston State 55 42.1, 159 Jacksonville State 30 28.3
79% 187 Central Michigan 35 29.2, 222 Eastern Michigan 30 16.8
79% 179 Fairfield 27 34.9, 221 La Salle 0 21.3
79% 87 Robert Morris 42 35.6, 162 Albany 31 22.0
79% 13 Illinois 33 32.4, 45 Penn State 28 19.4
79% 10 Syracuse 24 31.7, 40 West Virginia 13 16.6
79% 2 Nebraska 31 29.4, 7 Kansas State 21 17.0
78% 26 Maryland 37 37.4, 59 Clemson 20 25.4
78% 18 Stanford 51 42.7, 75 Arizona 37 30.8
77% 215 Davidson 17 28.2, 228 Austin Peay 12 16.7
77% 114 Fordham 28 27.2, 182 Towson 23 17.0
76% 133 Utah State 38 33.9, 190 Connecticut 31 23.7
75% 69 Delaware 10 19.0, 97 Richmond 6 9.5
74% 19 Michigan 31 32.7, 37 Minnesota 10 23.6
73% 71 Colorado State 28 35.0, 102 Air Force 21 26.6
72% 35 Marshall 27 33.8, 85 Miami - Ohio 21 25.9
71% 66 Toledo 41 25.1, 93 Western Michigan 35 17.5
71% 36 Lehigh 21 25.4, 95 Bucknell 14 17.8
70% 180 San Diego 41 34.5, 202 Wagner 24 27.0
69% 151 Southern Utah 49 32.5, 168 Butler 24 25.1
67% 169 Stephen F. Austin 35 22.3, 188 Southwest Texas State 13 16.2
67% 129 Bowling Green 17 25.7, 170 Ohio 0 20.0
67% 47 Iowa 59 36.0, 88 Northwestern 16 30.6
67% 33 Colorado 40 26.3, 76 Iowa State 27 20.5
66% 174 Illinois State 31 31.2, 184 Indiana State 17 25.5
66% 20 Washington State 28 32.6, 54 Arizona State 16 27.1
65% 201 South Carolina State 29 32.8, 225 Morgan State 26 27.4
65% 50 Ohio State 35 27.8, 58 Purdue 9 22.4
64% 139 Northeastern 34 23.6, 143 New Hampshire 11 19.1
64% 77 New Mexico 27 28.6, 89 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 24.0
63% 189 Montana State 52 30.2, 198 Idaho State 13 26.0
63% 53 Arkansas 27 32.7, 51 Central Florida 20 28.2
61% 137 Tulane 42 32.5, 158 Navy 28 29.3
60% 153 Princeton 34 20.0, 149 Yale 14 17.7
59% 210 Delaware State 43 21.1, 218 Norfolk State 13 19.3
58% 84 Appalachian State 34 31.6, 73 Western Carolina 24 29.9
56% 127 Tennessee Tech 63 27.8, 115 Tennessee State 13 26.5
54% 109 McNeese State 17 22.0, 99 Northwestern State 10 21.3
53% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 38 19.8, 68 Texas Christian 17 19.2
50% 195 Drake 31 31.0, 207 Jacksonville 23 30.9
46% 121 Colgate 35 22.4, 136 Holy Cross 7 23.3
44% 224 Stony Brook 17 27.5, 214 Central Connecticut 15 28.8
42% 12 Oregon 21 22.0, 17 California - Los Angel 20 23.6
41% 63 Boise State 28 33.4, 67 Hawaii 21 35.4
40% 108 Kentucky 56 27.1, 111 Vanderbilt 30 29.5
39% 167 Columbia 35 23.3, 165 Cornell 28 26.4
38% 141 Kent State 31 19.3, 140 Ball State 18 22.4
35% 193 Lafayette 37 27.3, 181 Georgetown 17 32.6
35% 60 Oregon State 49 22.2, 22 Washington 24 27.4
33% 232 Liberty 45 23.7, 230 Charleston Southern 31 30.4
33% 192 California State - Nor 35 35.5, 171 California Poly 28 42.0
32% 144 Portland State 37 34.0, 134 Eastern Washington 22 39.7
30% 55 Indiana 37 29.8, 39 Michigan State 28 37.0
25% 122 Harvard 28 17.4, 61 Pennsylvania 21 26.3
24% 57 Auburn 24 20.4, 27 Georgia 17 30.8
23% 223 Alcorn State 40 10.8, 164 Alabama A&M 35 21.1
23% 183 Buffalo 26 18.9, 142 Army 19 31.1
23% 79 Villanova 54 37.5, 52 Hofstra 34 46.7
21% 70 Wake Forest 32 15.7, 24 North Carolina 31 28.3
14% 101 Virginia 39 16.1, 15 Georgia Tech 38 33.7
14% 44 North Carolina State 34 18.2, 6 Florida State 28 39.6
13% 147 Northern Iowa 24 11.3, 62 Western Kentucky 23 32.5
12% 173 Hampton 23 23.4, 72 North Carolina A&T 7 46.9
11% 196 Saint Mary's 41 17.7, 42 Dayton 7 45.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.97 22 1.05 27 0.97 35 1.00 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 107 83 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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