2001 Week 14 (29 Nov - 1 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  88 Cincinnati              42 40.3,   216 Northeast Louisiana     10  7.9
 92%  49 Clemson                 59 49.8,   188 Duke                    31 19.1
 92%  15 Fresno State            70 50.3,   142 Utah State              21 18.0
 92%   9 Georgia                 35 57.7,   198 Houston                  7  6.8
 90%   1 Miami - Florida         26 39.0,    12 Virginia Tech           24 14.7
 89%  37 North Carolina          19 35.8,   137 Southern Methodist      10 12.6
 87%  31 Stanford                41 47.2,   154 San Jose State          14 25.0
 87%  29 Georgia Southern        60 34.6,   115 Florida A&M             35 14.4
 84%  96 Sam Houston State       34 43.5,   156 Northern Arizona        31 27.0
 84%  62 Mississippi             38 38.9,   140 Vanderbilt              27 20.2
 79%   7 Oregon                  17 34.5,    21 Oregon State            14 21.7
 78%  43 Lehigh                  27 35.9,    84 Hofstra                 24 24.3
 77%  39 California - Los Angel  52 27.7,    76 Arizona State           42 16.9
 77%  20 Louisiana State         27 28.9,    53 Auburn                  14 18.1
 76%  25 Pittsburgh              24 22.3,    44 Alabama - Birmingham     6 13.4
 76%  17 Florida State           28 38.2,    35 Georgia Tech            17 27.8
 74%  42 Furman                  24 23.1,    73 Western Kentucky        20 15.1
 70% 105 Montana                 28 28.4,   118 Northwestern State      19 21.3
 70%  93 Troy State              18 23.9,   108 North Texas             16 16.9
 68%  98 Grambling               38 37.6,   125 Alabama State           31 31.3
 68%  82 Michigan State          55 28.6,    89 Missouri                 7 22.0
 67%  24 Brigham Young           41 35.0,    63 Mississippi State       38 28.3
 66%  72 Maine                   14 23.6,   116 McNeese State           10 18.6
 66%  69 Indiana                 26 36.3,    79 Kentucky                15 30.9
 60% 100 Appalachian State       40 28.9,    95 William & Mary          27 26.5

 48%  33 Notre Dame              24 16.5,    46 Purdue                  18 16.8
 40%  60 Sacred Heart            31 28.2,    61 Duquesne                15 30.9
 40%  30 Alabama                 28 18.1,    14 Southern Mississippi    15 20.4
 37% 181 Army                    26 22.6,   157 Navy                    17 26.9
 33%  99 Toledo                  41 33.0,    50 Marshall                36 38.7
 32%  85 Virginia                20 23.0,    40 Penn State              14 29.7
 28%   4 Colorado                39 29.0,     3 Texas                   37 37.7
 24% 113 Northern Iowa           49 26.0,    78 Eastern Illinois        43 36.6
 10% 136 Air Force               38 14.7,    18 Utah                    37 38.5
 10%  10 Tennessee               34 19.0,     2 Florida                 32 44.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 0.00  13 0.94   9 1.02   6 0.96   6 0.91   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  35  25 0.94

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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