prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 9 Georgia Southern 38 45.6, 84 Appalachian State 24 20.3
67% 99 Montana 49 33.4, 109 Sam Houston State 24 27.8
67% 39 Furman 34 26.7, 49 Lehigh 17 20.5
40% 97 Northern Iowa 56 26.6, 68 Maine 28 29.0
31% 81 Hawaii 72 39.9, 32 Brigham Young 45 45.6
27% 50 Texas Christian 14 20.2, 30 Southern Mississippi 12 29.0
23% 21 Louisiana State 31 20.8, 4 Tennessee 20 32.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 3 0.99 2 0.00 1 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 7 3 0.60
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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