prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 2 Florida 56 40.5, 22 Maryland 23 18.1
85% 6 Oklahoma 10 34.8, 54 Arkansas 3 17.3
85% 4 Texas 47 39.1, 43 Washington 43 21.4
85% 1 Miami - Florida 37 38.4, 7 Nebraska 14 20.6
75% 34 Clemson 49 38.8, 81 Louisiana Tech 24 29.2
75% 19 Washington State 33 25.0, 55 Purdue 27 16.4
72% 77 Colorado State 45 22.3, 116 North Texas 20 15.2
67% 8 Tennessee 45 26.4, 16 Michigan 17 20.7
66% 37 Louisville 28 40.5, 62 Brigham Young 10 35.6
63% 15 Louisiana State 47 29.7, 23 Illinois 34 25.6
62% 25 Alabama 14 21.6, 41 Iowa State 13 18.4
62% 24 Pittsburgh 34 21.5, 40 North Carolina State 19 18.5
51% 27 Georgia Tech 24 29.5, 28 Stanford 14 29.3
48% 46 Marshall 64 36.0, 45 East Carolina 61 36.4
46% 63 North Carolina 16 23.0, 58 Auburn 10 23.9
39% 33 South Carolina 31 17.2, 20 Ohio State 28 19.6
38% 17 Florida State 30 26.9, 9 Virginia Tech 17 30.4
37% 90 Toledo 23 34.2, 74 Cincinnati 16 37.7
37% 21 Boston College 20 19.4, 10 Georgia 16 23.4
32% 32 Iowa 19 27.2, 12 Texas Tech 16 33.8
30% 57 Montana 13 20.3, 26 Furman 6 27.4
30% 39 Utah 10 16.9, 13 Southern California 6 23.8
29% 64 Texas A&M 28 14.2, 31 Texas Christian 9 20.7
27% 42 Michigan State 44 25.4, 14 Fresno State 35 34.1
24% 11 Oregon 38 23.9, 3 Colorado 16 34.3
18% 36 Syracuse 26 14.1, 5 Kansas State 3 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.64 11 0.71 7 0.59 5 0.94 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 26 13 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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