rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 5 Oklahoma over 195 Tulsa 28 Boston College over 220 Connecticut 2 Florida over 63 Alabama - Birmingham 1 Miami - Florida over 115 Florida A&M 45 Michigan State over 225 Eastern Michigan 48 Mississippi over 232 Northeast Louisiana 3 Nebraska over 104 Troy State 24 North Carolina State over 149 East Tennessee State 20 South Carolina over 159 New Mexico State 4 Texas over 137 North Texas 39 Texas A&M over 201 Southwestern Louisiana 6 Tennessee over 163 Wyoming 80-90% chance of victory: 51 Lehigh over 206 Buffalo 53 Fresno State over 119 San Diego State 33 Oregon State over 127 Eastern Kentucky 57 South Florida over 227 Florida Atlantic 67 Toledo over 153 California Poly 88 Western Michigan over 216 Indiana State 25 Alabama over 84 Middle Tennessee State 58 Boise State over 182 Idaho 40 East Carolina over 209 Duke 12 Florida State over 107 Virginia 18 Georgia Tech over 131 Vanderbilt 30 Iowa over 145 Akron 44 Iowa State over 143 Kansas 9 Kansas State over 71 Western Kentucky 120 Western Carolina over 226 Liberty 83 Maine over 208 Central Connecticut 35 Marshall over 92 Appalachian State 79 Memphis State over 175 Murray State 68 Minnesota over 194 Southwest Texas State 101 New Mexico over 187 Weber State 41 North Carolina over 105 Miami - Ohio 7 Oregon over 80 Mississippi State 43 Pittsburgh over 166 Ohio 47 Purdue over 176 Illinois State 117 Rice over 184 Houston 64 Villanova over 223 Rutgers 36 Southern Mississippi over 132 Jackson State 17 Utah over 146 Utah State 22 Washington State over 168 Nevada - Reno 77 West Virginia over 212 Tennessee - Chattanooga 142 San Jose State over 222 Arkansas State 94 Bethune - Cookman over 231 Savannah State 27 Illinois over 109 Missouri 19 Louisville over 103 Kentucky 70-80% chance of victory: 78 Arizona over 129 Northern Arizona 76 Bowling Green over 112 Tennessee Tech 116 Sam Houston State over 183 Central Michigan 42 Georgia Southern over 96 Delaware 130 Saint Peter's over 228 Florida International 144 Kent State over 160 New Hampshire 123 Western Illinois over 178 Drake 85 Arizona State over 147 Eastern Washington 221 Charleston Southern over 235 Virginia Military 192 Gardner - Webb over 219 Morgan State 16 Georgia over 34 Clemson 60 Indiana over 91 William & Mary 140 James Madison over 161 Hampton 11 Michigan over 37 Washington 121 Tennessee State over 180 South Carolina State 135 Southern Methodist over 181 Navy 169 Texas - El Paso over 213 Sacramento State 13 Colorado over 46 Colorado State 29 Southern California over 56 Auburn 60-70% chance of victory: 59 Hofstra over 65 Montana 75 Wake Forest over 113 Northern Illinois 93 Richmond over 141 Temple 199 Alcorn State over 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 148 California over 155 Baylor 70 Hawaii over 90 Eastern Illinois 139 Alabama A&M over 171 Jacksonville State 74 Grambling over 106 McNeese State 170 Montana State over 177 Saint Mary's 179 Delaware State over 229 Morris Brown 31 Wisconsin over 81 Nevada - Las Vegas 133 Portland State over 152 Stephen F. Austin 108 Southern over 128 Tulane 10 Virginia Tech over 14 Louisiana State 62 Texas Christian over 86 Cincinnati 50-60% chance of victory: 15 Syracuse over 23 Brigham Young 97 Air Force over 89 Northwestern 82 Louisiana Tech over 72 Oklahoma State 61 Penn State over 52 Central Florida 32 Notre Dame over 38 Maryland 204 Texas Southern over 230 Prairie View
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