2002 Week 1 (29 Aug - 2 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%  45 Michigan State          56 51.5,   225 Eastern Michigan         7  5.4
 92%  28 Boston College          24 53.1,   220 Connecticut             16  5.8
 92%   3 Nebraska                31 47.4,   104 Troy State              16  5.6
 91%  48 Mississippi             31 49.3,   232 Northeast Louisiana      3  6.0
 91%  39 Texas A&M               31 43.7,   201 Southwestern Louisiana   7  4.8
 91%   6 Tennessee               47 50.9,   163 Wyoming                  7  9.5
 91%   5 Oklahoma                37 49.7,   195 Tulsa                    0  6.0
 91%   4 Texas                   27 51.9,   137 North Texas              0  6.6
 91%   2 Florida                 51 46.6,    63 Alabama - Birmingham     3  7.3
 91%   1 Miami - Florida         63 58.0,   115 Florida A&M             17  6.9
 90%  88 Western Michigan        48 38.6,   216 Indiana State           17  7.7
 90%  83 Maine                   52 38.6,   208 Central Connecticut      3  9.5
 90%  77 West Virginia           56 41.5,   212 Tennessee - Chattanoog   7 10.9
 90%  68 Minnesota               42 37.1,   194 Southwest Texas State    0  6.8
 90%  47 Purdue                  51 42.2,   176 Illinois State          10 11.7
 90%  43 Pittsburgh              27 37.2,   166 Ohio                    14  7.1
 90%  24 North Carolina State    34 36.4,   149 East Tennessee State     0  5.6
 90%  20 South Carolina          34 42.6,   159 New Mexico State        24  9.7
 89%  57 South Florida           51 46.0,   227 Florida Atlantic        10  8.7
 89%  22 Washington State        31 48.9,   168 Nevada - Reno            7 16.9
 88%  64 Villanova               37 45.1,   223 Rutgers                 19 15.0
 88%  51 Lehigh                  37 41.6,   206 Buffalo                 26 10.8
 88%  33 Oregon State            49 34.5,   127 Eastern Kentucky        10  9.3
 88%  30 Iowa                    57 42.4,   145 Akron                   21 16.7
 88%  18 Georgia Tech            45 42.4,   131 Vanderbilt               3 16.4
 88%   7 Oregon                  36 37.7,    80 Mississippi State       13 12.4
 87%  79 Memphis State           52 37.4,   175 Murray State             6 15.2
 87%  58 Boise State             38 48.3,   182 Idaho                   21 21.1
 87%  36 Southern Mississippi    55 39.9,   132 Jackson State            7 15.9
 86%  17 Utah                    23 38.8,   146 Utah State               3 15.6
 86%   9 Kansas State            48 29.2,    71 Western Kentucky         3  7.0
 85%  44 Iowa State              45 39.5,   143 Kansas                   3 16.4
 84%  94 Bethune - Cookman       41 35.5,   231 Savannah State           9 10.8
 84%  67 Toledo                  44 35.2,   153 California Poly         16 16.5
 84%  12 Florida State           40 47.2,   107 Virginia                19 22.9
 83% 120 Western Carolina        23 37.7,   226 Liberty                  3 18.6
 83% 101 New Mexico              38 38.4,   187 Weber State             24 18.7
 83%  53 Fresno State            16 30.9,   119 San Diego State         14 13.5
 81% 142 San Jose State          33 38.7,   222 Arkansas State          14 21.1
 80% 123 Western Illinois        64 36.8,   178 Drake                    7 21.8
 80%  35 Marshall                50 40.1,    92 Appalachian State       17 24.1
 80%  25 Alabama                 39 34.3,    84 Middle Tennessee State  34 19.2
 78%  78 Arizona                 37 38.1,   129 Northern Arizona         3 24.5
 77% 169 Texas - El Paso         42 38.8,   213 Sacramento State        12 26.7
 77%  11 Michigan                31 31.1,    37 Washington              29 20.0
 76%  85 Arizona State           38 40.6,   147 Eastern Washington       2 27.4
 76%  60 Indiana                 25 35.4,    91 William & Mary          17 24.6
 75%  76 Bowling Green           41 25.7,   112 Tennessee Tech           7 16.4
 74% 192 Gardner - Webb          28 38.7,   219 Morgan State            24 29.0
 73%  16 Georgia                 31 27.7,    34 Clemson                 28 19.3
 71%  29 Southern California     24 22.1,    56 Auburn                  17 15.2
 70% 144 Kent State              34 33.2,   160 New Hampshire            7 25.7
 68%  31 Wisconsin               27 26.2,    81 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 19.6
 67% 199 Alcorn State            34 21.7,   214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   24 16.1
 67% 179 Delaware State          16 28.9,   229 Morris Brown            10 20.9
 67% 133 Portland State          31 28.7,   152 Stephen F. Austin       23 23.0
 67%  70 Hawaii                  61 41.3,    90 Eastern Illinois        36 34.1
 64% 170 Montana State           27 22.3,   177 Saint Mary's            24 17.9
 63% 148 California              70 27.1,   155 Baylor                  22 23.2
 61%  10 Virginia Tech           26 29.2,    14 Louisiana State          8 25.5
 60% 204 Texas Southern          44 19.0,   230 Prairie View            14 16.3
 59%  82 Louisiana Tech          39 27.7,    72 Oklahoma State          36 26.0
 59%  61 Penn State              27 21.7,    52 Central Florida         24 20.0
 56%  97 Air Force               52 36.3,    89 Northwestern             3 35.0
 55%  32 Notre Dame              22 21.4,    38 Maryland                 0 20.4

 50%  23 Brigham Young           42 28.3,    15 Syracuse                21 28.4
 38% 171 Jacksonville State      20 21.5,   139 Alabama A&M             17 24.8
 38% 113 Northern Illinois       42 26.8,    75 Wake Forest             41 30.6
 38% 106 McNeese State           52 20.7,    74 Grambling               20 24.1
 38%  86 Cincinnati              36 23.1,    62 Texas Christian         29 26.4
 35% 128 Tulane                  37 24.4,   108 Southern                19 29.5
 33%  65 Montana                 21 27.3,    59 Hofstra                  0 33.6
 32% 141 Temple                  34 11.3,    93 Richmond                 7 17.7
 29% 161 Hampton                 31 18.9,   140 James Madison           28 26.2
 29%  96 Delaware                22 17.9,    42 Georgia Southern        19 25.5
 28% 228 Florida International   27 10.7,   130 Saint Peter's            3 20.2
 27% 183 Central Michigan        34 24.6,   116 Sam Houston State       10 33.6
 27%  46 Colorado State          19 25.6,    13 Colorado                14 35.4
 26% 180 South Carolina State    26 22.4,   121 Tennessee State         20 31.6
 24% 235 Virginia Military       27 19.6,   221 Charleston Southern     24 29.7
 24% 181 Navy                    38 14.3,   135 Southern Methodist       7 23.8
 19% 109 Missouri                33 20.5,    27 Illinois                20 37.2
 19% 105 Miami - Ohio            27 15.9,    41 North Carolina          21 30.5
 18% 184 Houston                 24 20.0,   117 Rice                    10 37.3
 14% 209 Duke                    23 21.3,    40 East Carolina           16 53.3
 14% 103 Kentucky                22 15.6,    19 Louisville              17 36.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 1.47  15 0.82  19 0.78  34 0.99  12 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  86  65 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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