2002 Week 2 (5-7 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92%   6 Nebraska                44 52.2,   156 Utah State              13  7.4
 92%   5 Kansas State            68 54.9,   218 Northeast Louisiana      0  0.2
 91%  57 Toledo                  65 48.4,   228 Eastern Michigan        13 11.9
 91%  46 Dayton                  39 58.7,   239 Saint Francis - Pennsy   0  5.1
 91%  39 Michigan State          27 39.7,   165 Rice                    10  9.1
 91%  19 Montana                 45 39.9,   168 Albany                   7  3.7
 91%  12 Georgia Tech            31 47.1,   180 Connecticut             14  8.1
 91%  11 Ohio State              51 42.3,   115 Kent State              17  8.8
 90%  23 Iowa State              58 40.1,   128 Tennessee Tech           6  9.6
 90%  21 Louisiana State         35 38.3,   145 The Citadel             10  4.5
 89%  73 Lehigh                  69 43.2,   201 Georgetown               0 14.7
 89%  33 Washington State        49 46.6,   173 Idaho                   14 16.8
 89%  18 Colorado                34 35.6,   113 San Diego State         14  9.4
 88%  41 Minnesota               35 38.7,   184 Southwestern Louisiana  11 13.3
 88%   8 Tennessee               26 46.1,    87 Middle Tennessee State   3 20.7
 87% 138 Tennessee State         41 41.5,   235 Prairie View             8 11.8
 87%  95 Bethune - Cookman       30 37.6,   225 Florida Atlantic        17 11.6
 87%  62 Georgia Southern        56 48.5,   200 Gardner - Webb           0 19.3
 87%  17 North Carolina State    65 35.6,   122 Navy                    19 11.0
 86%  10 Oregon                  28 37.6,    64 Fresno State            24 16.8
 86%   4 Oklahoma                37 28.0,    32 Alabama                 27  8.7
 85%  38 Washington              34 45.3,   135 San Jose State          10 21.1
 84% 152 Massachusetts           52 32.5,   223 Central Connecticut      3 14.7
 84% 112 Florida A&M             64 38.8,   230 Morris Brown             6 10.7
 83%  91 Maryland                44 35.6,   157 Akron                   14 17.2
 83%  71 Texas Tech              24 37.0,   191 Southern Methodist      14 15.2
 83%  67 Kentucky                77 38.9,   137 Texas - El Paso         17 18.9
 83%  15 Michigan                35 34.5,    86 Western Michigan        12 14.7
 82% 124 Alabama State           41 39.1,   220 Tennessee - Chattanoog  23 22.5
 82% 123 Fordham                 43 26.3,   199 Saint Peter's            0  8.9
 82% 120 North Texas             23 25.5,   196 Nicholls State           0  7.5
 82%  90 Nevada - Las Vegas      31 30.4,   144 Kansas                  20 15.3
 82%  68 Missouri                41 33.5,   134 Ball State               6 16.6
 81%  35 Air Force               38 36.5,    99 New Mexico              31 19.8
 80% 209 Iona                    14 27.2,   236 Siena                    7 12.9
 80% 183 Saint Mary's            20 32.9,   224 Sacramento State        12 18.4
 80%  96 North Carolina A&T      42 39.9,   164 Jackson State           36 24.9
 80%  16 Utah                    40 24.2,    69 Indiana                 13  9.3
 80%   9 Notre Dame              24 22.2,    36 Purdue                  17  7.9
 79% 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   36 34.1,   238 Mississippi Valley Sta  30 19.5
 79% 179 Delaware State          41 30.5,   229 Savannah State           9 13.8
 79% 117 Grambling               41 40.6,   194 Alcorn State            35 23.5
 79%  77 Texas Christian         48 36.1,   166 Northwestern            24 21.0
 79%  52 Louisville              40 32.8,   159 Duke                     3 13.9
 79%  27 Oregon State            35 29.5,    97 Temple                   3 15.7
 79%  22 Southern Mississippi    23 29.2,    66 Illinois                20 15.2
 78% 231 Saint John's            17 27.1,   237 Canisius                14 15.3
 78%  26 Wisconsin               34 28.9,    60 West Virginia           17 16.4
 77%  25 Iowa                    29 32.4,    85 Miami - Ohio            24 20.7
 76%  51 Auburn                  56 24.9,   106 Western Carolina         0 13.0
 75% 190 Towson                  49 26.1,   212 Morgan State            28 17.1
 75%  84 California              34 42.6,   126 New Mexico State        13 30.7
 75%  13 Brigham Young           35 50.7,    43 Hawaii                  32 38.2
 73% 110 Northwestern State      30 22.2,   133 Southern                20 14.0
 73%  75 Duquesne                35 24.5,   108 Bucknell                14 16.4
 73%  63 Maine                   27 27.8,    92 William & Mary          14 19.4
 73%  37 Clemson                 33 45.1,    79 Louisiana Tech          13 35.0
 72%  50 Arkansas                41 27.8,    72 Boise State             14 19.6
 71% 162 James Madison           20 28.9,   181 New Hampshire           14 20.9
 71%  55 South Florida           37 41.3,    88 Northern Illinois        6 32.0
 68%  83 Alabama - Birmingham    27 21.8,   105 Troy State              26 15.3
 67% 197 Wagner                  42 26.7,   226 La Salle                 7 21.1
 67% 141 Central Michigan        32 26.6,   155 Wyoming                 20 20.5
 67%  89 Oklahoma State          45 30.0,   101 Northern Iowa           10 23.6
 66%  80 Villanova               20 34.4,   116 Colgate                  0 28.6
 64% 161 Elon                    23 20.9,   177 Florida International   22 14.9
 64% 154 Stephen F. Austin       30 25.5,   167 Montana State           13 21.0
 64%  28 California - Los Angel  30 22.5,    29 Colorado State          19 17.8
 63%  47 Arizona State           46 24.1,    59 Central Florida         13 19.7
 62% 103 Tulane                  34 37.1,   136 Houston                 13 32.4
 61% 160 Morehead State          27 23.4,   192 Valparaiso              17 20.3
 61%  58 McNeese State           28 25.9,    93 Youngstown State        13 22.8
 59% 186 Buffalo                 34 20.5,   215 Rutgers                 11 18.5
 59% 121 Northeastern            31 18.1,   148 Ohio                     0 16.4
 57% 188 Southeast Missouri Sta  21 22.2,   208 Southern Illinois       14 20.9
 56%  98 Wake Forest             27 31.2,    94 East Carolina           22 29.9
 56%  61 Mississippi             38 24.3,    56 Memphis State           16 23.1
 54% 150 Holy Cross              30 24.7,   176 Army                    21 24.0
 53% 119 Hofstra                 37 20.4,   102 Rhode Island            19 19.7
 51% 210 Baylor                  50 31.4,   207 Samford                 12 31.2

 40% 131 Southwest Missouri Sta  28 27.7,   132 Hampton                 26 30.3
 39% 227 Virginia Military       41 18.7,   206 Davidson                16 21.8
 38% 171 Northern Arizona        31 18.7,   172 California Poly         24 22.3
 36%  53 Texas A&M               14 13.5,    54 Pittsburgh              12 17.7
 36%   2 Miami - Florida         41 26.6,     1 Florida                 16 31.7
 31% 216 Howard                  34 21.0,   174 Texas Southern          31 28.4
 31%  78 Boston College          34 23.3,    30 Stanford                27 31.1
 29% 130 Richmond                15 12.5,    82 Delaware                13 20.5
 28%  65 North Carolina          30 15.4,    34 Syracuse                22 23.8
 27% 234 Arkansas State          21 16.1,   203 Tulsa                   19 24.8
 27% 187 Lafayette               30 13.9,   125 Monmouth                29 22.2
 24% 109 Virginia                34 19.9,    40 South Carolina          21 29.9
 14% 163 Vanderbilt              49 13.0,    45 Furman                  18 33.6
 13% 195 Marist                  38  9.4,    49 Sacred Heart            27 36.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.80  19 0.98  29 1.09  29 1.10   9 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  94  80 1.12

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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