prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 109 Bethune - Cookman 42 42.4, 235 Morris Brown 7 8.9
92% 68 Illinois 59 45.6, 217 Arkansas State 7 6.5
92% 44 McNeese State 24 47.6, 233 Northeast Louisiana 19 5.4
92% 34 Texas Christian 17 41.5, 172 Southern Methodist 6 6.9
92% 12 Oregon 58 54.3, 168 Idaho 21 13.5
92% 7 Oklahoma 68 64.7, 199 Texas - El Paso 0 6.0
92% 4 Kansas State 63 50.9, 111 Eastern Illinois 13 15.6
92% 2 Florida 34 63.3, 191 Ohio 6 3.0
92% 1 Miami - Florida 44 63.9, 122 Temple 21 6.0
91% 66 Duquesne 17 43.4, 230 Siena 7 5.6
90% 137 Marist 28 44.7, 236 Canisius 0 10.5
90% 24 Wisconsin 24 40.5, 114 Northern Illinois 21 16.5
89% 196 Albany 21 35.1, 237 Central Connecticut 12 11.4
89% 97 Louisiana Tech 53 40.8, 198 Tulsa 9 15.6
89% 22 Oregon State 47 34.4, 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 12.3
87% 146 Fairfield 25 35.0, 234 La Salle 14 11.4
87% 27 Stanford 63 44.6, 138 San Jose State 26 18.0
87% 16 Auburn 31 35.7, 91 Vanderbilt 6 15.7
86% 81 Furman 57 33.2, 166 Elon 7 10.6
85% 96 Florida A&M 34 51.9, 222 Morgan State 16 23.3
84% 79 Mississippi State 51 36.8, 161 Jacksonville State 13 16.2
83% 104 William & Mary 62 40.6, 192 Virginia Military 31 19.6
83% 15 North Carolina State 32 37.1, 64 Wake Forest 13 19.9
82% 129 James Madison 16 26.9, 220 Florida Atlantic 13 8.1
82% 89 Troy State 40 36.4, 150 Southern Utah 15 18.6
82% 19 Southern Mississippi 33 27.5, 70 Memphis State 14 11.9
82% 3 Virginia Tech 47 36.8, 21 Marshall 21 21.2
81% 144 Hampton 51 40.2, 209 Howard 2 23.9
81% 30 Arizona State 39 26.5, 107 San Diego State 28 12.2
81% 26 Louisiana State 33 33.6, 87 Miami - Ohio 7 17.7
80% 121 Utah State 38 40.8, 202 Idaho State 33 22.3
80% 61 Dayton 24 33.2, 110 Robert Morris 10 18.1
80% 9 Florida State 37 34.9, 59 Maryland 10 21.5
79% 195 Stony Brook 34 22.4, 227 Saint John's 9 9.2
79% 193 Tennessee Tech 13 32.3, 224 Tennessee - Chattanoog 3 17.8
79% 155 Wagner 34 35.5, 211 Iona 0 20.2
79% 120 Kent State 37 29.3, 171 California Poly 34 16.1
79% 113 Alabama State 43 41.1, 187 Texas Southern 32 24.9
79% 98 Boise State 35 32.6, 185 Wyoming 13 19.5
79% 53 Syracuse 63 26.2, 99 Rhode Island 17 11.8
79% 32 Alabama 33 21.9, 90 North Texas 7 7.4
79% 5 Texas 52 34.5, 48 North Carolina 21 20.2
78% 169 Ball State 23 29.6, 213 Indiana State 21 16.4
78% 141 Holy Cross 41 32.2, 205 Georgetown 13 20.4
78% 76 Hofstra 52 38.2, 165 New Hampshire 28 22.4
78% 55 Purdue 28 29.5, 92 Western Michigan 24 17.8
78% 10 Ohio State 25 35.4, 31 Washington State 7 22.8
77% 136 Southern 14 28.4, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 15.2
77% 78 Fordham 40 24.9, 118 Colgate 31 13.5
77% 6 Iowa State 36 34.5, 38 Iowa 31 22.7
76% 112 New Mexico 23 37.8, 158 Baylor 0 25.6
75% 57 Kentucky 27 37.3, 88 Indiana 17 26.9
74% 190 Murray State 42 28.1, 207 Southern Illinois 24 18.2
74% 23 Georgia 13 23.4, 80 South Carolina 7 13.8
73% 116 Appalachian State 36 28.3, 148 Eastern Kentucky 28 18.8
71% 101 Sacred Heart 32 28.4, 153 Monmouth 13 19.7
69% 152 Lafayette 23 31.9, 180 Towson 7 24.5
68% 231 Saint Peter's 24 14.3, 239 Saint Francis - Pennsy 19 6.9
68% 103 Northwestern State 34 30.7, 154 Delaware State 14 22.5
68% 42 Colorado State 36 20.3, 62 Louisville 33 14.5
67% 214 Norfolk State 35 18.8, 228 Savannah State 6 11.5
67% 178 Houston 36 25.4, 194 Southwestern Louisiana 17 19.4
67% 84 East Carolina 24 37.7, 106 Tulane 20 30.3
62% 167 Northwestern 26 31.4, 182 Duke 21 27.1
62% 133 Kansas 44 24.5, 135 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 20.8
62% 47 Arkansas 42 28.9, 45 South Florida 3 24.8
61% 130 Wofford 7 25.7, 162 South Carolina State 6 22.6
61% 36 Clemson 24 28.2, 40 Georgia Tech 19 24.6
59% 20 Notre Dame 25 20.9, 17 Michigan 23 18.9
57% 25 California - Los Angel 38 22.6, 51 Oklahoma State 24 21.2
56% 184 Florida International 42 25.6, 170 Butler 0 24.0
51% 75 Pittsburgh 26 19.1, 94 Alabama - Birmingham 20 19.0
51% 60 Minnesota 31 28.1, 43 Toledo 21 27.9
49% 142 Northern Arizona 40 28.7, 125 Sam Houston State 14 29.0
48% 77 Western Illinois 14 20.2, 95 Western Kentucky 0 20.5
47% 126 Central Michigan 24 29.1, 149 Akron 17 29.7
47% 73 West Virginia 35 28.1, 82 Cincinnati 32 28.8
46% 54 Maine 21 21.9, 65 Villanova 14 22.8
45% 127 Grambling 23 27.5, 139 Alabama A&M 13 28.6
45% 67 Texas Tech 42 27.9, 49 Mississippi 28 28.9
38% 208 Nicholls State 45 19.3, 206 Samford 17 22.7
38% 69 Bowling Green 51 23.8, 37 Missouri 28 27.8
37% 204 Gardner - Webb 13 20.8, 177 East Tennessee State 10 24.8
36% 218 Davidson 28 18.1, 186 Jacksonville 10 22.5
36% 188 Connecticut 24 18.8, 181 Buffalo 3 23.2
36% 164 Saint Mary's 23 14.3, 119 Bucknell 22 19.4
36% 41 Southern California 40 21.3, 28 Colorado 3 25.9
34% 156 Jackson State 31 34.5, 123 Tennessee State 28 40.3
31% 132 Portland State 23 25.6, 93 North Carolina A&T 20 32.7
23% 225 Eastern Michigan 35 19.4, 176 Southeast Missouri Sta 32 30.8
23% 140 The Citadel 24 9.0, 83 Delaware 20 19.8
23% 72 Arizona 23 15.2, 13 Utah 17 27.1
22% 229 Rutgers 44 14.3, 183 Army 0 26.1
22% 85 California 46 21.8, 46 Michigan State 22 34.9
20% 58 Penn State 40 17.1, 8 Nebraska 7 30.8
12% 163 Nevada - Reno 31 22.3, 18 Brigham Young 28 54.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.77 21 0.88 31 1.08 22 1.07 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 96 73 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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