rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 42 Louisville over 219 Army 56 Dayton over 220 Austin Peay 26 Clemson over 189 Ball State 6 Florida State over 173 Duke 61 Maine over 224 Howard 68 Maryland over 223 Eastern Michigan 1 Miami - Florida over 64 Boston College 47 Minnesota over 203 Buffalo 12 Montana over 192 Idaho State 14 Oregon over 120 Portland State 59 Pittsburgh over 197 Rutgers 106 Robert Morris over 232 Central Connecticut 7 Texas over 158 Houston 63 Hawaii over 210 Texas - El Paso 31 Washington over 182 Wyoming 36 Washington State over 177 Montana State 80-90% chance of victory: 34 Marshall over 88 Central Florida 153 Alabama A&M over 231 Prairie View 103 Alabama State over 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 126 Bucknell over 186 Cornell 10 Ohio State over 81 Cincinnati 133 Colgate over 212 Dartmouth 85 Fordham over 199 Columbia 145 Fairfield over 228 Georgetown 22 Georgia over 95 Northwestern State 40 Georgia Southern over 131 Wofford 70 Hofstra over 166 James Madison 48 Illinois over 154 San Jose State 41 Iowa over 142 Utah State 9 Iowa State over 77 Troy State 4 Kansas State over 16 Southern California 52 Lehigh over 149 Princeton 121 Appalachian State over 221 Liberty 43 Mississippi over 108 Vanderbilt 136 Monmouth over 222 Morgan State 27 Western Illinois over 118 Northern Illinois 46 Oklahoma State over 144 Southern Methodist 15 Oregon State over 45 Fresno State 19 Penn State over 71 Louisiana Tech 84 Sacred Heart over 200 Albany 181 Sam Houston State over 238 Mississippi Valley State 227 Samford over 240 Tennessee - Martin 174 South Carolina State over 234 Savannah State 86 Alabama - Birmingham over 205 Southwestern Louisiana 5 Virginia Tech over 35 Texas A&M 66 Texas Christian over 117 North Texas 60 Toledo over 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 72 Villanova over 184 New Hampshire 67 Virginia over 167 Akron 116 Wagner over 183 Stony Brook 70-80% chance of victory: 168 Baylor over 214 Tulsa 29 California - Los Angeles over 79 Colorado 230 Siena over 239 Canisius 87 Florida A&M over 170 Delaware State 76 Duquesne over 135 Marist 162 East Tennessee State over 201 Virginia Military 150 Eastern Illinois over 191 Indiana State 147 Eastern Kentucky over 204 Florida Atlantic 44 Bowling Green over 130 Kansas 39 Kentucky over 78 Middle Tennessee State 73 Pennsylvania over 155 Lafayette 17 Michigan over 32 Utah 24 Notre Dame over 83 Michigan State 104 New Mexico over 172 New Mexico State 151 Nicholls State over 188 Jacksonville State 216 Northeast Louisiana over 226 Arkansas State 109 Northeastern over 137 Massachusetts 111 Northern Iowa over 134 Stephen F. Austin 51 Purdue over 91 Wake Forest 69 Furman over 129 Richmond 217 Saint Peter's over 229 La Salle 74 South Carolina over 119 Temple 152 Southwest Missouri State over 190 Southeast Missouri State 171 Tennessee Tech over 196 Valparaiso 11 North Carolina State over 49 Texas Tech 122 The Citadel over 165 Western Carolina 98 Brown over 193 Towson 99 Youngstown State over 160 Western Kentucky 60-70% chance of victory: 235 Saint John's over 237 Iona 13 Southern Mississippi over 28 Alabama 37 California over 50 Air Force 124 San Diego State over 169 Idaho 100 Indiana over 123 Central Michigan 80 Memphis State over 94 Tulane 97 Miami - Ohio over 115 Kent State 143 Navy over 148 Northwestern 127 Nevada - Reno over 146 Rice 179 California Poly over 218 Sacramento State 185 Texas Southern over 211 Southwest Texas State 3 Florida over 8 Tennessee 38 Wisconsin over 54 Arizona 164 Yale over 175 San Diego 90 Bethune - Cookman over 113 Florida International 114 Grambling over 138 Tennessee State 128 Hampton over 159 Alcorn State 50-60% chance of victory: 33 Auburn over 57 Mississippi State 161 Ohio over 180 Connecticut 58 Georgia Tech over 53 Brigham Young 101 Harvard over 96 Holy Cross 187 Illinois State over 178 Murray State 141 Eastern Washington over 163 Southern Utah 209 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 207 Gardner - Webb 139 Jackson State over 140 Southern
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