2002 Week 4 (19-21 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 106 Robert Morris           14 45.5,   232 Central Connecticut      0  8.8
 92%  68 Maryland                45 49.4,   223 Eastern Michigan         3  5.5
 92%  61 Maine                   42 43.7,   224 Howard                  12  6.1
 92%  59 Pittsburgh              23 40.6,   197 Rutgers                  3  4.3
 92%  56 Dayton                  42 44.0,   220 Austin Peay              0  6.9
 92%  47 Minnesota               41 45.6,   203 Buffalo                 17  6.0
 92%  36 Washington State        45 42.5,   177 Montana State           28  7.6
 92%  31 Washington              38 48.3,   182 Wyoming                  7 11.8
 92%  26 Clemson                 30 47.2,   189 Ball State               7  7.1
 92%  12 Montana                 13 54.0,   192 Idaho State              9  3.9
 92%   7 Texas                   41 53.7,   158 Houston                 11  7.4
 92%   6 Florida State           48 57.4,   173 Duke                    17  7.1
 92%   1 Miami - Florida         38 52.8,    64 Boston College           6  9.7
 91%  63 Hawaii                  31 55.0,   210 Texas - El Paso          6 25.0
 91%  42 Louisville              45 47.9,   219 Army                    14  8.9
 91%  14 Oregon                  41 46.5,   120 Portland State           0 16.2
 90%  52 Lehigh                  31 39.2,   149 Princeton               24 15.1
 89%  72 Villanova               45 42.9,   184 New Hampshire            3 16.9
 89%  46 Oklahoma State          52 31.9,   144 Southern Methodist      16  7.1
 89%  41 Iowa                    48 46.1,   142 Utah State               7 21.2
 89%   9 Iowa State              42 39.7,    77 Troy State              12 17.0
 88% 181 Sam Houston State       45 46.4,   238 Mississippi Valley Sta   7 18.7
 88%  67 Virginia                48 43.7,   167 Akron                   29 20.3
 85% 153 Alabama A&M             15 29.6,   231 Prairie View            12  8.8
 85%  22 Georgia                 45 30.7,    95 Northwestern State       7 10.5
 84% 133 Colgate                 30 34.7,   212 Dartmouth               26 14.9
 84%  60 Toledo                  38 38.2,   125 Nevada - Las Vegas      21 20.6
 84%   5 Virginia Tech           13 27.2,    35 Texas A&M                3 10.4
 83%  43 Mississippi             45 38.9,   108 Vanderbilt              38 22.4
 83%  27 Western Illinois        29 35.9,   118 Northern Illinois       26 18.5
 83%  10 Ohio State              23 38.1,    81 Cincinnati              19 21.6
 82% 227 Samford                 41 36.2,   240 Tennessee - Martin      10 17.6
 82% 174 South Carolina State    50 24.9,   234 Savannah State          12  8.0
 82%  66 Texas Christian         16 23.3,   117 North Texas             10  9.4
 82%  19 Penn State              49 39.9,    71 Louisiana Tech          17 24.0
 81% 126 Bucknell                14 31.9,   186 Cornell                  3 16.6
 81% 121 Appalachian State       29 37.7,   221 Liberty                 22 18.9
 81% 116 Wagner                  17 33.1,   183 Stony Brook             14 17.8
 81%  34 Marshall                26 40.5,    88 Central Florida         21 25.5
 80%  76 Duquesne                36 23.5,   135 Marist                   0  7.9
 80%  44 Bowling Green           39 36.2,   130 Kansas                  16 21.8
 80%  15 Oregon State            59 33.7,    45 Fresno State            19 19.3
 80%   4 Kansas State            27 31.7,    16 Southern California     20 15.8
 79% 147 Eastern Kentucky        22 28.5,   204 Florida Atlantic         6 13.0
 79%  74 South Carolina          42 24.5,   119 Temple                  21 12.5
 79%  73 Pennsylvania            52 31.6,   155 Lafayette               21 17.3
 78% 168 Baylor                  37 28.5,   214 Tulsa                   25 16.2
 77% 162 East Tennessee State    35 28.0,   201 Virginia Military       21 16.3
 77%  69 Furman                  17 24.7,   129 Richmond                 7 14.6
 77%  39 Kentucky                44 39.8,    78 Middle Tennessee State  22 28.3
 76% 217 Saint Peter's           55 19.3,   229 La Salle                 2  9.2
 76% 152 Southwest Missouri Sta  28 33.0,   190 Southeast Missouri Sta  21 21.7
 76%  87 Florida A&M             20 40.5,   170 Delaware State          18 27.4
 75% 230 Siena                   18 18.9,   239 Canisius                11  9.6
 75% 171 Tennessee Tech          62 20.0,   196 Valparaiso              10  9.6
 74% 151 Nicholls State          14 31.1,   188 Jacksonville State       6 20.9
 74%  11 North Carolina State    51 37.8,    49 Texas Tech              48 28.5
 73% 150 Eastern Illinois        26 38.8,   191 Indiana State           19 27.7
 73% 109 Northeastern            42 23.3,   137 Massachusetts           17 15.7
 72%  24 Notre Dame              21 25.5,    83 Michigan State          17 16.9
 70% 111 Northern Iowa           31 31.3,   134 Stephen F. Austin       24 23.8
 70% 100 Indiana                 39 27.5,   123 Central Michigan        29 19.6
 70%  97 Miami - Ohio            27 28.3,   115 Kent State              20 21.0
 70%  17 Michigan                10 22.8,    32 Utah                     7 15.8
 69% 127 Nevada - Reno           31 24.2,   146 Rice                    21 17.5
 68%  80 Memphis State           38 31.6,    94 Tulane                  10 24.9
 67%  38 Wisconsin               31 27.2,    54 Arizona                 10 20.8
 67%   3 Florida                 30 27.1,     8 Tennessee               13 20.6
 66%  90 Bethune - Cookman       31 24.4,   113 Florida International    0 18.7
 64% 164 Yale                    49 25.3,   175 San Diego               14 20.6
 63% 114 Grambling               49 33.4,   138 Tennessee State         14 28.9
 59%  58 Georgia Tech            28 29.1,    53 Brigham Young           19 27.2
 59%  33 Auburn                  42 21.6,    57 Mississippi State       14 19.7
 58% 187 Illinois State          24 34.1,   178 Murray State            23 32.6
 56% 101 Harvard                 28 27.1,    96 Holy Cross              23 25.7
 55% 141 Eastern Washington      49 32.7,   163 Southern Utah           14 31.7
 50% 139 Jackson State           36 28.5,   140 Southern                14 28.4

 43% 180 Connecticut             37 15.4,   161 Ohio                    19 16.6
 42% 207 Gardner - Webb          26 21.9,   209 Tennessee - Chattanoog  24 23.6
 39% 211 Southwest Texas State   17 17.8,   185 Texas Southern          10 20.8
 39% 148 Northwestern            49 28.8,   143 Navy                    40 32.0
 37%  28 Alabama                 20 19.6,    13 Southern Mississippi     7 24.0
 33% 237 Iona                    20 11.4,   235 Saint John's             6 16.2
 33% 169 Idaho                   48 27.2,   124 San Diego State         38 33.6
 33%  50 Air Force               23 31.6,    37 California              21 37.3
 30% 218 Sacramento State        27 24.4,   179 California Poly         17 31.8
 30% 159 Alcorn State            27 30.4,   128 Hampton                 23 37.2
 29% 160 Western Kentucky        13  9.4,    99 Youngstown State         7 17.7
 28% 226 Arkansas State          33 12.9,   216 Northeast Louisiana     21 21.6
 24% 172 New Mexico State        24 22.7,   104 New Mexico              13 33.0
 23% 165 Western Carolina        37 12.8,   122 The Citadel             34 22.8
 23%  91 Wake Forest             24 18.7,    51 Purdue                  21 30.2
 21%  79 Colorado                31 17.7,    29 California - Los Angel  17 32.2
 20% 193 Towson                  56 21.9,    98 Brown                   42 37.7
 17% 222 Morgan State            35 15.3,   136 Monmouth                20 33.3
 15% 228 Georgetown              21 19.6,   145 Fairfield                3 37.4
 15% 205 Southwestern Louisiana  34 13.4,    86 Alabama - Birmingham     0 35.7
 15% 199 Columbia                13 18.5,    85 Fordham                 11 38.6
 12% 166 James Madison           24 11.6,    70 Hofstra                 21 35.5
 12% 154 San Jose State          38 19.7,    48 Illinois                35 44.5
 11% 200 Albany                  38 16.1,    84 Sacred Heart            17 42.8
 11% 131 Wofford                 14  8.6,    40 Georgia Southern         7 32.4
 10% 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   32 19.1,   103 Alabama State           26 44.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.33  17 0.80  28 0.99  34 0.87  16 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103  77 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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