2002 Week 6 (3-5 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 172 Alabama State           40 46.5,   238 Morris Brown             7 13.7
 92% 156 Albany                  36 39.0,   237 Savannah State          14  4.6
 92% 147 Eastern Kentucky        58 51.2,   239 Tennessee - Martin       3  5.2
 92%  94 North Carolina A&T      36 45.6,   231 Norfolk State           10  8.9
 92%  83 Grambling               35 44.4,   226 Prairie View            13 10.4
 92%  68 Dayton                  41 54.8,   228 Butler                   0 11.4
 92%  56 Pennsylvania            49 45.2,   203 Dartmouth               14  8.7
 92%  48 Air Force               48 48.0,   197 Navy                     7 15.6
 92%  36 Bowling Green           72 45.6,   183 Ohio                    21 11.1
 92%  16 Louisiana State         48 49.8,   176 Southwestern Louisiana   0  7.2
 92%   1 Miami - Florida         48 66.0,   163 Connecticut             14  3.5
 91%  55 Duquesne                23 45.7,   190 Lafayette               22 16.8
 91%  53 Fordham                 41 35.6,   200 Georgetown              10  6.7
 91%  41 Bethune - Cookman       41 44.4,   182 Morgan State            27 17.4
 91%  14 Ohio State              27 46.5,   132 Northwestern            16 20.6
 90% 128 Stephen F. Austin       52 44.5,   232 Southern Utah            6 16.7
 90% 100 East Carolina           59 39.2,   218 Army                    24 13.4
 90%  99 Wofford                 27 31.2,   211 Tennessee - Chattanoog  21  6.7
 90%  76 Georgia Southern        52 46.9,   202 Virginia Military        7 16.3
 90%  62 Furman                  24 38.5,   170 Western Carolina        23 13.6
 90%   3 Texas                   17 41.5,    42 Oklahoma State          15 14.2
 89%  70 Texas Christian         34 36.7,   168 Houston                 17 14.3
 88%  63 Brigham Young           35 53.2,   199 Utah State              34 27.9
 88%  24 Montana                 38 40.6,   134 Idaho                   31 18.6
 87% 145 Saint Peter's           19 24.3,   227 Siena                    0  3.4
 86% 117 Northern Arizona        26 38.0,   201 Weber State             21 18.4
 85%  93 Youngstown State        31 32.1,   181 Indiana State           16 12.4
 84% 137 Troy State              41 32.9,   217 Austin Peay              3 13.8
 84%  11 Oregon                  31 33.6,    85 Arizona                 14 16.2
 83% 103 Northwestern State      47 34.4,   178 Elon                    20 17.7
 83%  40 Maine                   17 25.8,   116 James Madison            6 10.6
 83%  33 Marshall                42 38.4,   135 Kent State              21 21.4
 83%   6 Oklahoma                31 34.9,    58 Missouri                24 18.3
 82%  22 Notre Dame              31 36.9,    75 Stanford                 7 20.1
 81% 139 Nicholls State          33 23.1,   196 Florida Atlantic        22  9.4
 81%  97 Morehead State          39 36.7,   204 Davidson                 7 18.7
 80% 171 New Mexico State        49 37.4,   221 Texas - El Paso         14 22.2
 80% 166 Marist                  33 21.6,   212 Fairfield               29  7.9
 80%  95 Yale                    28 38.1,   175 Holy Cross              19 20.3
 79% 185 Jacksonville State      37 36.3,   225 Samford                 23 21.5
 79% 184 Stony Brook             24 23.2,   233 Saint Francis - Pennsy  14 10.5
 79%  23 Iowa                    31 34.5,    47 Purdue                  28 21.3
 77% 144 Tulane                  52 27.3,   216 Northeast Louisiana      9 16.3
 77% 112 Western Michigan        31 31.7,   192 Buffalo                 17 19.5
 77%  80 Lehigh                  36 36.5,    98 Harvard                 35 25.9
 77%  64 Villanova               35 37.6,    96 Hofstra                  7 25.9
 77%  17 Florida State           48 33.2,    35 Clemson                 31 21.5
 76% 109 Princeton               35 27.5,   188 Columbia                32 17.5
 76%  67 Virginia                27 37.6,   125 Duke                    22 27.2
 76%  54 South Carolina          34 26.8,    92 Mississippi State       10 16.4
 71%  52 Minnesota               31 33.8,    78 Illinois                10 25.8
 69% 162 Alabama A&M             27 14.4,   191 Southern                11  8.9
 69% 113 Hampton                 44 28.3,   169 Delaware State          13 21.6
 68% 156 Albany                  35 24.0,   177 Wagner                  14 17.3
 68% 148 Southeast Missouri Sta  49 29.0,   165 Tennessee State         25 22.3
 67% 138 Portland State          16 20.3,   158 Southwest Texas State    0 14.3
 67% 111 Northern Illinois       41 25.0,   167 Ball State              29 19.2
 66%  45 Nebraska                38 27.9,    60 McNeese State           14 22.1
 65% 131 Sacred Heart            34 23.2,   140 Robert Morris            0 18.4
 64%  31 Tennessee               41 20.6,    38 Arkansas                38 16.4
 63% 121 Rice                    37 30.3,   124 Louisiana Tech          20 26.0
 60% 209 San Diego               44 23.9,   205 Jacksonville            20 21.3
 60% 123 San Jose State          34 27.1,   153 Southern Methodist      23 24.6
 60% 106 Appalachian State       29 25.7,   143 East Tennessee State    10 23.0
 60%  26 Penn State              34 24.4,    44 Wisconsin               31 22.1
 58% 118 Nevada - Las Vegas      21 28.8,   107 Nevada - Reno           17 27.2
 58%  86 Fresno State            32 33.3,    71 Colorado State          30 31.8
 56% 142 Rhode Island            38 34.8,   130 Brown                   28 33.7
 51% 198 Gardner - Webb          31 23.4,   215 Liberty                 21 23.3

 49% 222 Drake                   52 22.2,   213 Valparaiso              35 22.5
 49%  84 South Florida           24 16.7,    89 North Texas             17 16.9
 48% 174 Wyoming                 34 20.6,   146 The Citadel             30 21.1
 48% 160 Baylor                  35 34.5,   141 Kansas                  32 34.9
 48%  61 Boise State             58 35.2,    43 Hawaii                  31 35.7
 39% 115 Eastern Illinois        35 28.4,   120 Tennessee Tech          28 31.2
 38% 126 Colgate                 13 15.4,   127 Bucknell                10 18.3
 38%  18 Texas Tech              48 15.9,    15 Texas A&M               47 19.2
 37% 105 Delaware                27 20.4,    82 Northeastern            10 24.8
 36% 110 Western Kentucky        31 16.8,   104 Northern Iowa           12 20.9
 36%  30 Washington State        30 20.3,    10 Southern California     27 25.0
 35%  69 Maryland                48 20.3,    51 West Virginia           17 25.3
 33% 224 Eastern Michigan        42 37.5,   180 Akron                   34 44.4
 33%  21 Georgia                 27 17.3,     9 Alabama                 25 22.5
 30%  57 Pittsburgh              48 23.7,    37 Syracuse                24 31.5
 28%  88 Miami - Ohio            31 25.0,    74 Cincinnati              26 32.9
 28%  29 California - Los Angel  43 21.8,    20 Oregon State            35 30.6
 27% 210 Illinois State          30 19.9,   151 Southwest Missouri Sta  20 28.5
 26% 187 Massachusetts           34 18.1,   149 Richmond                13 29.2
 26%  66 California              34 28.4,    39 Washington              27 37.3
 23% 159 Idaho State             21 18.3,   108 Eastern Washington      14 29.9
 21%  72 Wake Forest             24 16.0,    27 Georgia Tech            21 28.5
 20% 220 Arkansas State          13 19.7,   133 Middle Tennessee State   7 35.2
 18% 152 South Carolina State    31 16.6,    87 Florida A&M             13 33.0
 18%  65 Colorado                35 18.1,     7 Kansas State            31 34.1
 18%  50 North Carolina          38 23.7,    12 Arizona State           35 40.0
 17% 207 Cornell                 34 19.9,   102 Towson                  31 37.1
 14%  49 Mississippi             17 21.8,     4 Florida                 14 42.3
 10% 240 Canisius                14  8.0,   229 Iona                    13 34.3
  8% 219 Southern Illinois       54 13.5,    59 Western Illinois        52 46.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.83  24 0.90  21 0.81  24 0.89  21 1.04   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  99  69 0.91
  
  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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