rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 155 Albany over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 66 Morehead State over 207 Austin Peay 5 Kansas State over 189 Baylor 38 Bowling Green over 154 Ball State 31 Marshall over 194 Central Michigan 64 Duquesne over 235 La Salle 50 Missouri over 164 Kansas 102 Sacred Heart over 213 Central Connecticut 118 Saint Peter's over 233 Saint John's 16 Boise State over 156 San Jose State 177 Tennessee State over 240 Tennessee - Martin 79 Tulane over 201 Navy 4 Virginia Tech over 106 Temple 46 Western Kentucky over 196 Indiana State 20 Air Force over 153 Wyoming 80-90% chance of victory: 48 Colorado State over 113 Brigham Young 25 Arkansas over 72 Mississippi 133 Alabama - Birmingham over 218 Army 120 Brown over 211 Cornell 18 California - Los Angeles over 85 Stanford 74 Central Florida over 186 Akron 83 Delaware over 180 New Hampshire 23 Maryland over 131 Duke 65 Furman over 161 East Tennessee State 115 Eastern Washington over 200 Sacramento State 210 Fairfield over 237 Canisius 70 Fordham over 162 Lafayette 140 Bucknell over 214 Georgetown 63 Grambling over 121 Jackson State 89 Lehigh over 181 Holy Cross 144 Idaho State over 206 Weber State 41 Louisville over 97 East Carolina 185 Marist over 230 Iona 142 Morgan State over 215 Delaware State 216 Samford over 239 Morris Brown 126 Florida A&M over 226 Norfolk State 53 Purdue over 134 Northwestern 32 Montana over 127 Portland State 173 San Diego over 234 Valparaiso 150 Saint Mary's over 232 Southern Utah 108 North Texas over 202 Southwestern Louisiana 168 Texas Southern over 231 Mississippi Valley State 98 Troy State over 187 Florida Atlantic 1 Miami - Florida over 37 West Virginia 147 Western Carolina over 217 Tennessee - Chattanooga 70-80% chance of victory: 104 Appalachian State over 143 Wofford 17 Washington State over 81 Arizona 27 Arizona State over 67 Washington 3 Louisiana State over 29 Auburn 184 Drake over 228 Butler 129 North Carolina A&T over 212 Howard 88 Massachusetts over 151 James Madison 9 Georgia over 45 Kentucky 68 Maine over 112 Hofstra 105 Northwestern State over 166 Nicholls State 125 Northern Iowa over 165 Illinois State 34 Oregon State over 44 California 80 McNeese State over 145 Sam Houston State 160 Stony Brook over 221 Siena 124 Syracuse over 171 Rutgers 6 Texas over 26 Iowa State 56 Georgia Southern over 122 The Citadel 136 Vanderbilt over 169 Connecticut 188 Virginia Military over 224 Liberty 135 Wagner over 190 Monmouth 96 Western Illinois over 119 Youngstown State 73 Pennsylvania over 117 Yale 60-70% chance of victory: 35 North Carolina State over 51 Clemson 157 New Mexico State over 199 Arkansas State 198 Kent State over 219 Buffalo 225 Charleston Southern over 229 Jacksonville 19 Colorado over 28 Texas Tech 179 Dartmouth over 209 Columbia 8 Florida State over 11 Notre Dame 49 Virginia over 87 Georgia Tech 75 Illinois over 92 Indiana 13 Michigan over 21 Iowa 71 Utah over 110 New Mexico 182 Utah State over 203 Northeast Louisiana 141 Montana State over 172 Northern Arizona 15 Ohio State over 12 Penn State 14 Oregon over 22 Southern California 205 Southern over 222 Prairie View 103 Harvard over 148 Princeton 138 Rhode Island over 132 Richmond 152 Rice over 149 Southern Methodist 7 Alabama over 30 Tennessee 114 Eastern Kentucky over 167 Tennessee Tech 60 Toledo over 77 Miami - Ohio 62 Wake Forest over 69 North Carolina 78 Western Michigan over 84 Northern Illinois 90 William & Mary over 86 Northeastern 139 Alabama State over 158 Alabama A&M 50-60% chance of victory: 58 Hawaii over 94 Fresno State 82 Memphis State over 95 Cincinnati 175 Gardner - Webb over 192 Florida International 128 Middle Tennessee State over 159 Idaho 146 Jacksonville State over 137 Stephen F. Austin 101 Nevada - Reno over 116 Louisiana Tech 61 Wisconsin over 91 Michigan State 174 Murray State over 163 Southeast Missouri State 40 Pittsburgh over 33 Boston College 99 San Diego State over 93 Nevada - Las Vegas 111 Hampton over 130 South Carolina State 170 Southern Illinois over 191 Southwest Missouri State 36 Texas A&M over 24 Nebraska 107 Colgate over 123 Towson 204 Texas - El Paso over 220 Tulsa
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