prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 177 Tennessee State 26 53.2, 240 Tennessee - Martin 8 17.9
92% 79 Tulane 51 46.7, 201 Navy 30 18.0
92% 64 Duquesne 46 52.8, 235 La Salle 0 8.2
92% 46 Western Kentucky 24 42.9, 196 Indiana State 7 5.7
92% 31 Marshall 23 47.0, 194 Central Michigan 18 17.0
92% 5 Kansas State 44 55.2, 189 Baylor 10 8.3
92% 4 Virginia Tech 20 42.8, 106 Temple 10 8.1
91% 155 Albany 49 35.7, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 5.9
91% 102 Sacred Heart 17 35.6, 213 Central Connecticut 3 7.2
91% 38 Bowling Green 38 47.7, 154 Ball State 20 21.2
91% 16 Boise State 45 53.6, 156 San Jose State 8 24.3
90% 74 Central Florida 28 44.6, 186 Akron 17 20.0
90% 66 Morehead State 45 43.0, 207 Austin Peay 25 15.8
90% 50 Missouri 36 47.3, 164 Kansas 12 21.6
89% 23 Maryland 45 37.9, 131 Duke 12 13.5
88% 83 Delaware 21 37.2, 180 New Hampshire 9 15.4
88% 70 Fordham 33 37.5, 162 Lafayette 26 16.2
87% 173 San Diego 59 42.8, 234 Valparaiso 27 21.1
87% 168 Texas Southern 34 38.2, 231 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 18.1
86% 126 Florida A&M 34 33.9, 226 Norfolk State 31 14.6
85% 147 Western Carolina 45 34.4, 217 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 15.5
85% 142 Morgan State 35 35.2, 215 Delaware State 28 16.8
85% 98 Troy State 21 29.6, 187 Florida Atlantic 6 10.1
85% 18 California - Los Angel 28 35.2, 85 Stanford 18 15.7
85% 1 Miami - Florida 40 38.9, 37 West Virginia 23 18.9
84% 150 Saint Mary's 24 39.0, 232 Southern Utah 14 21.2
84% 65 Furman 25 27.5, 161 East Tennessee State 0 10.1
83% 144 Idaho State 34 31.6, 206 Weber State 0 15.9
83% 48 Colorado State 37 38.9, 113 Brigham Young 10 20.4
83% 32 Montana 24 37.4, 127 Portland State 21 18.5
83% 25 Arkansas 48 34.3, 72 Mississippi 28 17.1
82% 133 Alabama - Birmingham 29 39.3, 218 Army 26 23.9
82% 63 Grambling 52 39.6, 121 Jackson State 31 23.1
81% 216 Samford 20 31.9, 239 Morris Brown 7 15.9
81% 210 Fairfield 21 37.7, 237 Canisius 14 20.6
81% 108 North Texas 27 28.9, 202 Southwestern Louisiana 0 14.2
81% 89 Lehigh 21 34.9, 181 Holy Cross 12 19.7
81% 53 Purdue 42 36.6, 134 Northwestern 13 21.9
81% 41 Louisville 44 40.6, 97 East Carolina 20 25.6
80% 188 Virginia Military 38 38.5, 224 Liberty 14 25.2
80% 135 Wagner 7 21.6, 190 Monmouth 6 8.3
80% 17 Washington State 21 30.9, 81 Arizona 13 17.7
79% 160 Stony Brook 14 19.9, 221 Siena 0 8.7
79% 68 Maine 24 26.9, 112 Hofstra 17 14.1
79% 27 Arizona State 27 42.2, 67 Washington 16 29.2
78% 56 Georgia Southern 28 28.2, 122 The Citadel 24 17.1
77% 6 Texas 21 34.0, 26 Iowa State 10 22.1
76% 124 Syracuse 45 28.4, 171 Rutgers 14 17.3
76% 96 Western Illinois 19 29.6, 119 Youngstown State 0 19.2
76% 88 Massachusetts 14 23.0, 151 James Madison 7 12.9
75% 136 Vanderbilt 28 30.7, 169 Connecticut 24 21.1
75% 105 Northwestern State 21 32.5, 166 Nicholls State 14 22.9
74% 73 Pennsylvania 41 19.5, 117 Yale 20 11.0
73% 80 McNeese State 47 27.6, 145 Sam Houston State 10 18.7
72% 9 Georgia 52 27.6, 45 Kentucky 24 20.1
71% 34 Oregon State 24 33.1, 44 California 13 25.1
69% 157 New Mexico State 26 28.1, 199 Arkansas State 21 21.5
69% 75 Illinois 45 34.6, 92 Indiana 14 27.8
67% 7 Alabama 34 30.5, 30 Tennessee 14 24.8
65% 103 Harvard 24 24.0, 148 Princeton 17 18.9
64% 179 Dartmouth 24 30.9, 209 Columbia 23 26.3
64% 114 Eastern Kentucky 19 22.9, 167 Tennessee Tech 0 18.4
64% 62 Wake Forest 31 25.4, 69 North Carolina 0 20.8
62% 198 Kent State 16 26.4, 219 Buffalo 12 23.1
62% 152 Rice 27 20.3, 149 Southern Methodist 15 17.1
61% 205 Southern 46 16.2, 222 Prairie View 24 13.5
61% 19 Colorado 37 35.7, 28 Texas Tech 13 32.6
60% 90 William & Mary 30 21.6, 86 Northeastern 13 19.1
60% 35 North Carolina State 38 30.7, 51 Clemson 6 28.1
60% 15 Ohio State 13 27.0, 12 Penn State 7 24.3
59% 174 Murray State 38 29.3, 163 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 27.2
59% 61 Wisconsin 42 24.7, 91 Michigan State 24 22.9
59% 58 Hawaii 31 42.7, 94 Fresno State 21 41.2
58% 99 San Diego State 31 20.7, 93 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 19.0
57% 40 Pittsburgh 19 24.5, 33 Boston College 16 23.2
54% 107 Colgate 9 22.0, 123 Towson 7 21.3
51% 175 Gardner - Webb 17 24.5, 192 Florida International 14 24.2
49% 220 Tulsa 20 30.0, 204 Texas - El Paso 0 30.2
49% 116 Louisiana Tech 50 35.9, 101 Nevada - Reno 47 36.1
48% 130 South Carolina State 47 22.8, 111 Hampton 41 23.1
48% 95 Cincinnati 48 24.3, 82 Memphis State 10 24.8
48% 24 Nebraska 38 19.1, 36 Texas A&M 31 19.4
47% 191 Southwest Missouri Sta 38 24.3, 170 Southern Illinois 28 25.0
42% 159 Idaho 21 35.5, 128 Middle Tennessee State 18 37.3
42% 137 Stephen F. Austin 36 18.9, 146 Jacksonville State 28 20.5
40% 203 Northeast Louisiana 51 30.1, 182 Utah State 48 32.6
40% 132 Richmond 26 16.8, 138 Rhode Island 0 19.1
39% 172 Northern Arizona 20 20.3, 141 Montana State 17 23.3
39% 158 Alabama A&M 23 20.9, 139 Alabama State 20 23.9
38% 84 Northern Illinois 24 30.1, 78 Western Michigan 20 33.9
37% 229 Jacksonville 24 19.9, 225 Charleston Southern 21 23.8
36% 21 Iowa 34 21.6, 13 Michigan 9 26.5
35% 87 Georgia Tech 23 23.5, 49 Virginia 15 28.8
33% 110 New Mexico 42 19.6, 71 Utah 35 25.9
33% 22 Southern California 44 22.2, 14 Oregon 33 28.2
32% 77 Miami - Ohio 27 29.0, 60 Toledo 13 35.4
31% 11 Notre Dame 34 18.2, 8 Florida State 24 24.6
27% 165 Illinois State 31 21.6, 125 Northern Iowa 20 31.3
26% 228 Butler 48 32.6, 184 Drake 44 41.4
23% 143 Wofford 26 18.2, 104 Appalachian State 19 29.7
22% 212 Howard 20 19.9, 129 North Carolina A&T 16 33.1
22% 29 Auburn 31 19.5, 3 Louisiana State 7 31.2
20% 214 Georgetown 32 9.4, 140 Bucknell 31 22.4
17% 230 Iona 17 16.0, 185 Marist 14 32.3
17% 200 Sacramento State 48 24.1, 115 Eastern Washington 41 41.9
14% 211 Cornell 10 21.0, 120 Brown 7 41.1
9% 233 Saint John's 34 6.4, 118 Saint Peter's 24 32.7
8% 153 Wyoming 34 16.4, 20 Air Force 26 43.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.85 26 0.85 22 1.01 30 1.03 15 0.95 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 108 77 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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