2002 Week 10 (29 Oct - 2 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 162 Gardner - Webb          24 45.5,   238 Tennessee - Martin       0 14.2
 92% 152 Morgan State            42 44.0,   240 Morris Brown            41  7.5
 92%  75 Eastern Kentucky        35 38.5,   225 Liberty                 28  6.7
 92%  70 Duquesne                59 42.1,   217 Iona                    10  6.0
 92%  57 Georgia Southern        40 34.8,   182 East Tennessee State     7  4.3
 92%  49 Hawaii                  40 53.3,   183 San Jose State          31 20.5
 92%  39 Dayton                  42 56.9,   234 Canisius                 6  3.5
 92%  38 South Florida           56 56.2,   228 Charleston Southern      6  5.4
 92%  36 Texas Tech              62 51.7,   205 Baylor                  11 12.1
 92%   6 Boise State             58 67.3,   222 Texas - El Paso          3  9.1
 92%   5 Kansas State            64 53.0,   154 Kansas                   0 12.8
 92%   3 Alabama                 30 50.1,   131 Vanderbilt               8 11.5
 92%   2 Miami - Florida         42 58.2,   184 Rutgers                 17  6.5
 90%  98 North Texas             41 31.8,   204 Northeast Louisiana      2  6.1
 90%  59 Pennsylvania            31 36.0,   160 Brown                    7 10.3
 90%  21 Arkansas                23 32.9,   102 Troy State               0  8.2
 89%  74 Montana                 38 39.1,   170 Northern Arizona        24 15.8
 89%  52 Bowling Green           45 43.3,   186 Kent State              14 19.7
 89%  41 Grambling               42 47.6,   187 Texas Southern          28 20.3
 88% 123 Yale                    35 36.5,   220 Columbia                 7 14.9
 87% 114 Appalachian State       20 38.1,   223 Tennessee - Chattanoog  17 18.7
 86% 139 Eastern Washington      38 42.1,   233 Weber State             20 22.0
 85%  77 Western Kentucky         9 30.0,   137 Illinois State           0 11.1
 85%  71 Western Illinois        28 33.8,   168 Southwest Missouri Sta  23 16.3
 85%  26 Michigan                49 32.3,    97 Michigan State           3 14.8
 84%  54 Miami - Ohio            38 34.3,   121 Ohio                    20 16.2
 84%  31 Oregon State            38 26.4,    86 Arizona                  3 10.3
 83% 138 Jackson State           42 42.9,   230 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    0 26.1
 82% 103 Northwestern State      38 32.1,   169 Sam Houston State       10 16.4
 82%  13 Penn State              18 35.8,    56 Illinois                 7 18.9
 82%   8 Iowa                    20 31.9,    45 Wisconsin                3 16.9
 81% 161 Murray State            54 33.3,   213 Samford                 17 18.7
 81% 109 Hofstra                 27 34.5,   202 Elon                    13 19.4
 80% 119 Sacred Heart            10 22.4,   174 Wagner                   7  8.8
 80%  92 Harvard                 31 38.0,   179 Dartmouth               26 24.0
 80%  72 Clemson                 34 30.7,   142 Duke                    31 17.2
 80%  67 McNeese State           42 28.0,   129 Stephen F. Austin       13 14.5
 80%   1 Oklahoma                27 29.7,    10 Colorado                11 15.8
 79% 100 Colgate                 31 29.7,   143 Lafayette               24 17.1
 79%  99 Eastern Illinois        54 40.0,   191 Tennessee State         48 26.5
 79%  69 Bethune - Cookman       13 31.9,   126 North Carolina A&T      12 19.6
 79%  37 Villanova               41 27.4,    83 William & Mary          20 15.3
 77% 175 Central Michigan        47 34.4,   229 Eastern Michigan        21 22.4
 77%  25 Oregon                  41 34.9,    65 Stanford                14 23.4
 76% 141 Youngstown State        21 26.2,   185 Southern Illinois        9 16.3
 76%  82 Massachusetts           17 22.2,   110 Delaware                 7 12.6
 76%  28 Iowa State              42 28.8,    63 Missouri                35 18.4
 76%  16 Auburn                  31 35.2,    62 Mississippi             24 25.1
 75% 207 Arkansas State          38 34.6,   226 Southern Utah           16 24.9
 74%  29 Maryland                59 27.2,    85 North Carolina           7 18.7
 72% 176 Southeast Missouri Sta  36 27.7,   203 Tennessee Tech          30 19.1
 72% 144 Rice                    33 26.8,   214 Tulsa                   18 19.1
 72%  24 Ohio State              34 24.4,    51 Minnesota                3 16.5
 71% 158 Connecticut             61 23.8,   189 Florida Atlantic        14 15.7
 70% 199 Howard                  21 26.7,   215 Norfolk State            0 19.6
 69% 221 Butler                  52 36.3,   236 Valparaiso              22 29.5
 69% 104 Nevada - Las Vegas      49 25.6,   118 Wyoming                 48 18.5
 69%   4 Texas                   27 27.1,    18 Nebraska                24 20.3
 68%  17 Washington State        44 30.6,    23 Arizona State           22 23.9
 67%  15 Florida State           34 31.5,    44 Wake Forest             21 25.3
 65% 200 Florida International   39 21.7,   209 Jacksonville             6 16.7
 65% 128 Western Carolina        35 40.7,   188 Virginia Military       23 35.5
 65% 106 Nevada - Reno           24 32.9,   136 Southern Methodist       6 27.4
 64%  43 West Virginia           46 25.1,    76 Temple                  20 20.5
 63% 164 Stony Brook             24 16.7,   197 Central Connecticut     10 13.5
 63% 140 Montana State           31 29.9,   181 Sacramento State        30 25.5
 62% 227 Siena                   20 17.3,   224 Saint John's            19 14.3
 62% 155 San Diego               51 44.6,   198 Drake                   46 41.4
 62% 116 Wofford                 27 22.6,   117 The Citadel             14 19.4
 62%  27 California - Los Angel  34 26.3,    64 Washington              24 22.7
 62%  22 Colorado State          31 28.6,    55 Air Force               12 24.1
 61% 150 Albany                  32 21.3,   196 Robert Morris            7 18.3
 61% 148 Princeton               32 20.8,   192 Cornell                 25 17.8
 59% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta  26 26.5,   231 Prairie View             8 24.4
 59% 159 Holy Cross              38 20.4,   149 Bucknell                21 18.7
 59%  58 Kentucky                45 26.5,    81 Mississippi State       24 24.6
 53% 124 Florida A&M             25 37.9,   120 Hampton                 13 37.3
 51% 166 Alcorn State            22 24.4,   180 Southern                20 24.2
 51%  60 Texas Christian         37 19.6,    46 Southern Mississippi     7 19.5

 49%  84 Lehigh                  26 20.3,    95 Fordham                 23 20.5
 48% 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy  23 18.7,   237 La Salle                16 19.1
 48% 201 Georgetown              24 25.4,   193 Marist                  17 25.8
 48% 178 James Madison           15 12.9,   190 Rhode Island            11 13.1
 48% 135 Towson                  20 12.8,   147 Monmouth                 0 13.2
 44% 113 Portland State          27 19.4,    94 Idaho State             24 20.6
 41% 195 Indiana State           21 23.0,   165 Northern Iowa           19 24.8
 41% 177 Southwest Texas State   27 22.9,   151 Jacksonville State      20 24.7
 41% 127 Ball State              17 23.6,   112 Western Michigan         7 25.4
 39% 167 New Mexico State        24 28.0,   125 Middle Tennessee State  21 30.7
 39% 133 Northwestern            41 25.4,   111 Indiana                 37 28.7
 39%  93 Syracuse                38 23.7,    91 Central Florida         35 27.2
 39%  66 Oklahoma State          28 20.0,    30 Texas A&M               23 23.1
 39%  50 Tennessee               18 18.0,    47 South Carolina          10 20.9
 37% 132 Brigham Young           34 21.9,   105 San Diego State         10 26.3
 36%  20 Florida                 20 20.1,    12 Georgia                 13 24.7
 33% 101 Northeastern            24  9.5,    90 Richmond                21 15.0
 32% 208 Southwestern Louisiana  31 30.5,   146 Idaho                   28 36.8
 30% 218 Fairfield               27 20.5,   172 Saint Peter's           13 28.0
 28%  32 Pittsburgh              28 14.7,    14 Virginia Tech           21 22.5
 20%  40 Boston College          14 15.6,     7 Notre Dame               7 28.9
 19%  68 Georgia Tech            24 17.3,    19 North Carolina State    17 32.8
 17% 219 Delaware State          27 16.1,   122 South Carolina State    21 32.2
 17% 173 Houston                 26 24.0,   107 Memphis State           21 40.3
 13% 163 Akron                   34 22.2,    34 Marshall                20 44.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               15 0.73  28 1.06  23 1.14  22 0.97  16 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104  79 1.03

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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