prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 96 Eastern Illinois 55 60.7, 240 Tennessee - Martin 43 6.0
92% 92 Nevada - Reno 23 47.4, 232 Texas - El Paso 17 11.6
92% 83 Fresno State 31 44.1, 215 Tulsa 12 13.5
92% 59 Duquesne 42 47.9, 230 Canisius 0 8.0
92% 22 Notre Dame 30 51.5, 206 Navy 23 6.8
92% 13 Nebraska 45 57.2, 198 Kansas 7 9.1
92% 11 Auburn 52 56.7, 213 Northeast Louisiana 14 4.8
92% 8 Iowa 62 48.2, 123 Northwestern 10 15.9
92% 6 Alabama 28 37.2, 82 Mississippi State 14 8.7
92% 5 Texas 41 60.3, 201 Baylor 0 3.5
92% 4 Boise State 49 51.5, 140 Rice 7 6.7
91% 127 Sacred Heart 32 30.9, 228 Siena 3 3.7
91% 114 Western Michigan 33 44.4, 231 Eastern Michigan 31 15.4
91% 99 Harvard 28 42.8, 217 Columbia 7 16.3
91% 71 Montana 31 45.0, 186 Sacramento State 24 18.6
91% 52 McNeese State 47 38.5, 165 Southwest Texas State 7 11.9
91% 35 South Florida 31 41.7, 138 Memphis State 28 14.9
90% 38 Pennsylvania 44 30.5, 156 Princeton 13 6.9
90% 19 Florida 21 42.5, 150 Vanderbilt 17 14.5
89% 1 Kansas State 58 32.5, 32 Iowa State 7 10.7
88% 88 William & Mary 44 36.5, 191 Rhode Island 6 15.0
87% 77 Air Force 49 43.0, 203 Army 30 21.8
87% 28 Pittsburgh 29 33.3, 93 Temple 22 11.2
86% 14 Georgia 31 37.4, 72 Mississippi 17 18.4
85% 97 Central Florida 45 34.4, 205 Buffalo 21 16.6
85% 62 Grambling 34 45.1, 135 Alabama State 21 27.0
83% 202 Marist 49 34.0, 238 La Salle 23 18.2
83% 171 Gardner - Webb 57 30.9, 229 Charleston Southern 15 14.6
83% 27 California - Los Angel 37 27.2, 91 Arizona 7 11.6
82% 122 Appalachian State 54 40.8, 195 Virginia Military 13 25.4
82% 86 North Texas 10 30.3, 153 Idaho 0 15.5
82% 80 Toledo 44 32.5, 148 Central Michigan 17 17.3
82% 26 Texas Christian 17 41.7, 78 Tulane 10 25.4
82% 9 Southern California 49 36.2, 66 Stanford 17 20.9
81% 157 Stony Brook 23 21.0, 204 Robert Morris 13 8.4
80% 211 Monmouth 7 15.6, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 4.5
80% 64 Southern Mississippi 20 26.5, 144 Alabama - Birmingham 13 13.6
80% 2 Miami - Florida 26 35.5, 30 Tennessee 3 21.8
79% 220 Florida Atlantic 34 28.5, 236 Morris Brown 13 14.8
79% 126 Connecticut 63 29.0, 189 Kent State 21 16.5
79% 79 Western Illinois 35 33.7, 169 Northern Iowa 12 20.3
79% 29 Penn State 35 28.9, 69 Virginia 14 15.7
79% 7 Maryland 24 30.6, 36 North Carolina State 21 15.3
78% 160 Saint Mary's 46 38.5, 200 Drake 28 27.3
77% 190 Fairfield 44 28.0, 219 Saint John's 21 17.0
77% 76 Utah 28 32.5, 117 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 20.2
76% 107 Wofford 39 21.0, 178 East Tennessee State 10 12.0
76% 102 Jackson State 13 26.0, 155 Alabama A&M 11 15.5
75% 147 Murray State 51 36.4, 176 Tennessee State 27 26.8
75% 70 Dayton 30 29.2, 94 Morehead State 20 19.1
75% 12 Colorado 42 32.2, 53 Missouri 35 22.7
74% 175 Tennessee Tech 51 30.6, 226 Samford 44 19.6
72% 113 Yale 31 27.4, 179 Brown 27 19.2
72% 74 Clemson 42 27.8, 128 North Carolina 12 19.6
72% 33 Texas Tech 49 36.0, 45 Oklahoma State 24 27.9
72% 16 Michigan 41 27.2, 58 Minnesota 24 18.8
71% 208 Elon 56 28.9, 221 Liberty 35 21.1
71% 116 Idaho State 46 23.1, 151 Northern Arizona 20 15.7
71% 18 Florida State 21 28.0, 50 Georgia Tech 13 20.5
71% 10 Louisiana State 33 35.1, 46 Kentucky 30 27.3
70% 131 North Carolina A&T 34 27.2, 192 Delaware State 7 19.8
70% 104 New Mexico 15 29.4, 125 San Diego State 8 21.9
70% 89 Brigham Young 35 34.6, 109 Wyoming 31 26.9
67% 85 East Carolina 54 38.3, 134 Houston 48 32.2
66% 20 Arkansas 23 19.6, 47 South Carolina 0 14.9
64% 17 Washington State 32 30.1, 24 Oregon 21 25.3
63% 210 Southwestern Louisiana 13 21.7, 207 Arkansas State 10 17.7
63% 193 Saint Peter's 22 21.8, 222 Iona 14 18.3
63% 95 Fordham 37 27.0, 130 Holy Cross 27 22.7
62% 234 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 44 23.0, 235 Prairie View 0 18.7
59% 103 Troy State 24 22.5, 112 Florida A&M 7 20.8
58% 105 Hofstra 26 18.0, 90 Richmond 16 16.6
57% 173 Utah State 32 41.3, 158 New Mexico State 30 40.2
55% 39 West Virginia 24 24.7, 34 Boston College 14 23.7
55% 15 Ohio State 10 19.7, 31 Purdue 6 18.8
51% 146 Ohio 27 28.8, 121 Akron 10 28.6
50% 168 Nicholls State 34 19.9, 187 Sam Houston State 16 19.8
45% 149 Lafayette 19 26.0, 162 Bucknell 3 27.0
44% 197 Cornell 21 26.3, 177 Dartmouth 19 27.4
43% 166 Montana State 25 30.0, 145 Eastern Washington 14 31.3
43% 152 San Jose State 42 37.5, 119 Louisiana Tech 30 38.7
41% 106 Michigan State 56 25.9, 110 Indiana 21 27.8
41% 43 Illinois 37 20.9, 51 Wisconsin 20 22.9
40% 164 Florida International 35 21.1, 124 Albany 26 23.5
39% 73 Northern Illinois 26 32.9, 42 Bowling Green 17 35.9
38% 184 Indiana State 21 22.3, 183 Southern Illinois 14 25.7
36% 214 Davidson 49 20.1, 209 Austin Peay 28 24.6
36% 139 Youngstown State 24 14.6, 137 Illinois State 17 18.2
35% 55 Georgia Southern 42 17.3, 48 Furman 21 22.0
31% 224 Norfolk State 17 21.9, 188 Morgan State 14 28.9
29% 223 Mississippi Valley Sta 23 26.5, 181 Alcorn State 6 34.3
29% 54 California 55 26.2, 40 Arizona State 38 34.0
27% 65 Washington 41 19.7, 25 Oregon State 29 27.7
26% 100 Northeastern 38 18.7, 49 Villanova 13 27.6
24% 57 Cincinnati 24 24.9, 37 Louisville 14 34.8
23% 196 Howard 23 16.8, 154 South Carolina State 9 27.3
23% 161 New Hampshire 31 17.1, 84 Massachusetts 14 27.6
23% 129 Hampton 37 22.0, 68 Bethune - Cookman 7 33.2
23% 75 Syracuse 50 20.1, 23 Virginia Tech 42 31.4
22% 167 Southeast Missouri Sta 35 18.8, 111 Eastern Kentucky 21 31.3
20% 108 Colgate 28 13.6, 60 Lehigh 14 27.6
20% 101 Delaware 37 9.1, 67 Maine 13 21.5
19% 216 Central Connecticut 24 7.2, 136 Wagner 17 20.7
19% 172 Jacksonville State 19 21.5, 81 Northwestern State 10 36.2
17% 218 Weber State 20 20.3, 120 Portland State 14 37.5
16% 212 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 16.2, 133 The Citadel 31 33.9
16% 41 Texas A&M 30 13.1, 3 Oklahoma 26 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.96 16 0.87 36 0.96 24 0.85 18 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 77 81.3 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net