rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 8 Arkansas over 208 Southwestern Louisiana 5 Oklahoma over 192 Baylor 10 Boise State over 151 Louisiana Tech 49 Duquesne over 181 Fairfield 18 Florida State over 129 North Carolina 147 Gardner - Webb over 240 Savannah State 32 Georgia Southern over 159 Jacksonville State 109 Jackson State over 237 Prairie View 74 Grambling over 233 Morris Brown 99 Sacred Heart over 223 Iona 68 Western Illinois over 230 Southern Utah 156 Stony Brook over 234 Canisius 121 Murray State over 235 Tennessee - Martin 65 Villanova over 187 Rhode Island 80-90% chance of victory: 140 Akron over 211 Buffalo 136 Alabama State over 214 Mississippi Valley State 148 Albany over 218 Monmouth 26 California over 108 Arizona 87 Central Florida over 213 Kent State 37 Cincinnati over 144 Houston 92 Colgate over 188 Georgetown 133 Eastern Illinois over 222 Florida Atlantic 77 Northern Illinois over 221 Eastern Michigan 21 Florida over 72 South Carolina 52 Georgia Tech over 128 Duke 111 Idaho State over 205 California Poly 22 Penn State over 124 Indiana 169 Wagner over 227 Jacksonville 61 Oklahoma State over 199 Kansas 1 Kansas State over 13 Nebraska 40 Kentucky over 117 Vanderbilt 90 Lehigh over 176 Bucknell 7 Michigan over 62 Wisconsin 126 Middle Tennessee State over 219 Northeast Louisiana 9 Iowa over 79 Minnesota 88 North Texas over 155 New Mexico State 33 Pennsylvania over 100 Harvard 54 Dayton over 141 San Diego 25 Colorado State over 134 San Diego State 130 Southeast Missouri State over 225 Samford 4 Southern California over 56 Arizona State 80 Western Kentucky over 200 Southern Illinois 158 Southern Methodist over 224 Texas - El Paso 82 Tulane over 197 Army 113 San Jose State over 212 Tulsa 70-80% chance of victory: 163 Alabama A&M over 201 Alcorn State 97 Bethune - Cookman over 165 Howard 194 Elon over 236 Charleston Southern 12 Maryland over 39 Clemson 16 Colorado over 47 Iowa State 81 Montana over 157 Eastern Washington 83 Fresno State over 119 Nevada - Reno 167 Idaho over 206 Arkansas State 6 Ohio State over 31 Illinois 69 William & Mary over 154 James Madison 28 Tennessee over 78 Mississippi State 94 Connecticut over 172 Navy 70 Northeastern over 131 New Hampshire 45 McNeese State over 101 Northwestern State 23 Oregon over 50 Washington 60 Hawaii over 139 Rice 103 Temple over 179 Rutgers 175 Sacramento State over 215 Weber State 231 Saint John's over 238 La Salle 182 Marist over 232 Siena 27 Oregon State over 89 Stanford 29 Texas A&M over 51 Missouri 107 Troy State over 168 Utah State 226 Austin Peay over 239 Valparaiso 76 Toledo over 123 Western Michigan 64 Utah over 137 Wyoming 118 Yale over 166 Princeton 170 The Citadel over 220 Virginia Military 60-70% chance of victory: 59 Marshall over 66 Miami - Ohio 58 Southern Mississippi over 55 Louisville 14 Auburn over 17 Georgia 44 Boston College over 46 Syracuse 84 Brigham Young over 85 New Mexico 115 Ball State over 162 Central Michigan 91 Fordham over 106 Towson 102 Hampton over 110 North Carolina A&T 125 Lafayette over 135 Holy Cross 75 Air Force over 116 Nevada - Las Vegas 209 Robert Morris over 229 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 150 Saint Mary's over 164 Northern Arizona 189 South Carolina State over 195 Morgan State 38 South Florida over 48 Bowling Green 178 Southern over 180 Texas Southern 146 Stephen F. Austin over 186 Southwest Texas State 191 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 198 East Tennessee State 3 Texas over 24 Texas Tech 42 North Carolina State over 73 Virginia 95 Appalachian State over 138 Western Carolina 63 Furman over 93 Wofford 50-60% chance of victory: 114 Alabama - Birmingham over 98 East Carolina 196 Cornell over 217 Columbia 173 Brown over 185 Dartmouth 174 Indiana State over 152 Illinois State 11 Alabama over 20 Louisiana State 104 Hofstra over 120 Massachusetts 71 Michigan State over 57 Purdue 149 Montana State over 143 Portland State 216 Norfolk State over 207 Delaware State 161 Southwest Missouri State over 177 Northern Iowa 86 Maine over 112 Richmond 171 Tennessee Tech over 193 Tennessee State
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