prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 156 Stony Brook 42 37.1, 234 Canisius 7 6.9
92% 147 Gardner - Webb 44 41.5, 240 Savannah State 13 5.2
92% 109 Jackson State 44 47.9, 237 Prairie View 9 5.9
92% 99 Sacred Heart 30 35.4, 223 Iona 3 4.9
92% 74 Grambling 64 52.8, 233 Morris Brown 36 13.0
92% 68 Western Illinois 38 50.2, 230 Southern Utah 28 16.9
92% 65 Villanova 45 40.4, 187 Rhode Island 3 12.1
92% 49 Duquesne 27 41.8, 181 Fairfield 0 12.1
92% 32 Georgia Southern 41 42.7, 159 Jacksonville State 3 14.0
92% 18 Florida State 40 43.4, 129 North Carolina 14 13.0
92% 10 Boise State 36 56.4, 151 Louisiana Tech 10 17.8
92% 8 Arkansas 24 53.6, 208 Southwestern Louisiana 17 1.7
92% 5 Oklahoma 49 53.9, 192 Baylor 9 6.1
91% 121 Murray State 42 44.9, 235 Tennessee - Martin 3 17.5
89% 87 Central Florida 32 42.0, 213 Kent State 6 15.8
89% 77 Northern Illinois 49 45.4, 221 Eastern Michigan 21 20.4
89% 61 Oklahoma State 55 42.5, 199 Kansas 20 19.5
89% 37 Cincinnati 47 44.6, 144 Houston 14 19.2
89% 25 Colorado State 49 33.1, 134 San Diego State 21 9.1
89% 22 Penn State 58 38.5, 124 Indiana 25 15.3
88% 130 Southeast Missouri Sta 48 48.5, 225 Samford 24 24.1
88% 126 Middle Tennessee State 44 37.4, 219 Northeast Louisiana 28 16.3
88% 92 Colgate 44 33.6, 188 Georgetown 22 12.1
87% 111 Idaho State 24 36.0, 205 California Poly 14 15.5
87% 80 Western Kentucky 48 29.1, 200 Southern Illinois 16 9.3
87% 52 Georgia Tech 17 32.3, 128 Duke 2 12.7
87% 40 Kentucky 41 42.0, 117 Vanderbilt 21 21.4
87% 7 Michigan 21 34.7, 62 Wisconsin 14 13.3
87% 4 Southern California 34 44.2, 56 Arizona State 13 22.3
86% 140 Akron 21 37.8, 211 Buffalo 10 19.1
86% 133 Eastern Illinois 47 47.2, 222 Florida Atlantic 6 27.3
86% 90 Lehigh 24 29.7, 176 Bucknell 0 10.9
85% 33 Pennsylvania 44 33.5, 100 Harvard 9 15.7
85% 21 Florida 28 23.0, 72 South Carolina 7 5.7
84% 148 Albany 19 24.8, 218 Monmouth 7 8.5
84% 9 Iowa 45 36.6, 79 Minnesota 21 19.3
84% 1 Kansas State 49 30.9, 13 Nebraska 13 14.2
83% 88 North Texas 38 24.1, 155 New Mexico State 27 9.2
82% 54 Dayton 27 36.6, 141 San Diego 17 21.2
81% 113 San Jose State 49 35.0, 212 Tulsa 38 20.6
80% 194 Elon 21 38.4, 236 Charleston Southern 13 23.2
80% 169 Wagner 42 28.7, 227 Jacksonville 7 15.1
80% 158 Southern Methodist 42 25.4, 224 Texas - El Paso 35 12.1
80% 60 Hawaii 33 34.3, 139 Rice 28 21.0
80% 27 Oregon State 31 34.7, 89 Stanford 21 20.6
78% 182 Marist 20 22.8, 232 Siena 0 11.1
78% 175 Sacramento State 41 34.9, 215 Weber State 38 23.0
78% 163 Alabama A&M 27 21.4, 201 Alcorn State 20 9.4
78% 97 Bethune - Cookman 46 24.4, 165 Howard 27 10.8
77% 83 Fresno State 38 34.8, 119 Nevada - Reno 30 22.1
77% 16 Colorado 41 36.0, 47 Iowa State 27 23.9
76% 118 Yale 7 26.5, 166 Princeton 3 16.4
76% 103 Temple 20 26.9, 179 Rutgers 17 17.3
76% 28 Tennessee 35 25.1, 78 Mississippi State 17 15.1
75% 94 Connecticut 38 40.1, 172 Navy 0 30.5
75% 70 Northeastern 49 30.3, 131 New Hampshire 17 20.8
75% 64 Utah 23 36.8, 137 Wyoming 18 26.8
74% 45 McNeese State 27 28.3, 101 Northwestern State 3 19.7
74% 6 Ohio State 23 23.2, 31 Illinois 16 15.0
72% 226 Austin Peay 28 37.9, 239 Valparaiso 24 29.7
71% 76 Toledo 42 29.3, 123 Western Michigan 21 21.7
71% 12 Maryland 30 29.2, 39 Clemson 12 20.9
69% 38 South Florida 29 36.5, 48 Bowling Green 7 29.8
67% 91 Fordham 42 23.5, 106 Towson 14 18.1
67% 59 Marshall 36 27.6, 66 Miami - Ohio 34 21.3
65% 75 Air Force 49 31.8, 116 Nevada - Las Vegas 32 26.8
64% 125 Lafayette 42 33.6, 135 Holy Cross 13 29.3
63% 102 Hampton 17 25.3, 110 North Carolina A&T 7 21.2
63% 95 Appalachian State 24 29.7, 138 Western Carolina 14 25.3
62% 191 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 20.9, 198 East Tennessee State 10 17.5
62% 178 Southern 27 27.4, 180 Texas Southern 25 23.6
62% 146 Stephen F. Austin 30 21.5, 186 Southwest Texas State 21 18.3
62% 63 Furman 23 22.5, 93 Wofford 21 19.2
62% 44 Boston College 41 31.9, 46 Syracuse 20 28.3
61% 115 Ball State 38 23.5, 162 Central Michigan 21 20.6
60% 86 Maine 21 17.5, 112 Richmond 14 15.5
59% 171 Tennessee Tech 20 34.1, 193 Tennessee State 14 32.2
59% 149 Montana State 28 21.6, 143 Portland State 26 19.6
57% 216 Norfolk State 23 20.6, 207 Delaware State 20 19.2
56% 11 Alabama 31 22.2, 20 Louisiana State 0 21.2
55% 196 Cornell 17 23.4, 217 Columbia 14 22.5
54% 173 Brown 21 29.1, 185 Dartmouth 18 28.3
53% 104 Hofstra 31 20.4, 120 Massachusetts 28 19.8
51% 114 Alabama - Birmingham 36 32.3, 98 East Carolina 29 32.1
47% 177 Northern Iowa 25 24.7, 161 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 25.2
46% 57 Purdue 45 24.1, 71 Michigan State 42 24.9
45% 152 Illinois State 20 18.7, 174 Indiana State 12 19.6
39% 85 New Mexico 20 26.3, 84 Brigham Young 16 29.4
38% 55 Louisville 20 17.7, 58 Southern Mississippi 17 21.1
37% 195 Morgan State 23 23.7, 189 South Carolina State 12 28.0
37% 17 Georgia 24 22.0, 14 Auburn 21 26.0
35% 164 Northern Arizona 24 23.4, 150 Saint Mary's 12 28.9
35% 73 Virginia 14 25.3, 42 North Carolina State 9 30.4
32% 229 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 10.1, 209 Robert Morris 7 15.8
30% 24 Texas Tech 42 27.3, 3 Texas 38 34.3
26% 51 Missouri 33 23.8, 29 Texas A&M 27 32.9
24% 206 Arkansas State 38 16.3, 167 Idaho 29 26.3
23% 157 Eastern Washington 30 24.9, 81 Montana 21 35.7
22% 238 La Salle 45 19.1, 231 Saint John's 41 31.2
22% 220 Virginia Military 23 23.7, 170 The Citadel 21 35.7
22% 168 Utah State 19 18.7, 107 Troy State 16 32.0
22% 50 Washington 42 27.3, 23 Oregon 14 39.1
20% 154 James Madison 34 10.4, 69 William & Mary 31 23.9
15% 214 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 17.7, 136 Alabama State 10 36.5
13% 108 Arizona 52 15.1, 26 California 41 37.2
10% 197 Army 14 20.7, 82 Tulane 10 45.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.35 21 0.97 28 0.93 31 1.05 14 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 84 81.1 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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