2002 Week 13 (20-23 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 177 Alabama State           28 38.7,   240 Savannah State          13 10.4
 92% 159 Tennessee Tech          68 44.7,   238 Tennessee - Martin       7 10.3
 92% 130 Youngstown State        37 41.6,   231 Samford                 29 11.5
 92%  80 Hofstra                 32 48.8,   227 Liberty                  3 11.8
 92%  66 Bowling Green           63 52.0,   223 Eastern Michigan        21 15.4
 92%  47 Wake Forest             30 47.8,   205 Navy                    27 11.8
 92%  34 Notre Dame              42 36.0,   190 Rutgers                  0  2.7
 92%  30 Pennsylvania            31 42.6,   187 Cornell                  0  9.0
 92%  20 McNeese State           33 40.1,   138 Nicholls State          21  7.1
 92%  11 Boise State             44 42.9,   116 Nevada - Reno            7 16.2
 91%  53 Oklahoma State          63 41.5,   165 Baylor                  28 15.6
 91%   1 Kansas State            38 43.4,    45 Missouri                 0 18.5
 89% 160 The Citadel             53 36.4,   235 Charleston Southern     19 13.2
 89%  52 Purdue                  34 46.4,   167 Indiana                 10 20.0
 89%  33 South Florida           32 44.1,   166 Houston                 14 20.3
 89%   2 Miami - Florida         28 38.5,    32 Pittsburgh              21 15.9
 88%   4 Penn State              61 46.1,    71 Michigan State           7 20.0
 87%  86 Jackson State           34 39.6,   197 Alcorn State            20 17.7
 87%  78 Furman                  35 36.3,   170 Tennessee - Chattanoog   7 15.2
 87%  60 Northeastern            41 28.8,   131 James Madison           10  9.2
 86% 118 Idaho State             42 39.0,   225 Southern Utah           17 20.2
 86% 114 Ball State              41 30.1,   202 Buffalo                 21 12.3
 86%  39 Illinois                31 39.0,   137 Northwestern            24 20.8
 86%  22 Colorado State          22 33.7,    91 New Mexico              14 14.8
 85%  93 Maine                   31 37.6,   176 New Hampshire           14 17.9
 85%  85 Colgate                 25 35.8,   164 Holy Cross              20 17.0
 85%  75 Fordham                 34 27.5,   182 Bucknell                 7  9.6
 85%  40 Louisville              41 34.3,   106 Alabama - Birmingham    21 16.3
 84% 151 Brown                   35 32.9,   222 Columbia                28 15.6
 84% 132 Louisiana Tech          38 41.0,   214 Texas - El Paso         24 22.6
 84%  26 Tennessee               24 33.9,   107 Vanderbilt               0 16.8
 82% 207 Norfolk State           32 31.3,   233 Morris Brown            19 15.0
 81% 108 Memphis State           38 32.7,   185 Army                    10 16.8
 81%  94 Wofford                 34 35.2,   186 Elon                     9 20.7
 81%  65 Marshall                24 34.6,   153 Ohio                    21 19.6
 79% 139 Alabama A&M             39 23.8,   216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   19 11.2
 78%  38 Boston College          36 30.2,   101 Temple                  14 19.0
 78%  27 Louisiana State         14 32.5,    58 Mississippi             13 20.3
 76% 175 Southern Methodist      24 28.8,   215 Tulsa                   21 18.9
 76% 150 Akron                   48 32.4,   217 Kent State              10 22.5
 76%  61 Utah                    13 28.8,   103 Brigham Young            6 17.5
 75%  31 Oregon State            45 31.9,    50 Oregon                  24 22.5
 73% 157 Princeton               38 25.9,   192 Dartmouth               30 17.5
 73%  46 California              30 41.9,    79 Stanford                 7 32.7
 73%   7 Oklahoma                60 34.3,    14 Texas Tech              15 25.9
 72%   3 Southern California     52 27.4,    21 California - Los Angel  21 19.6
 70%  81 Fresno State            19 38.2,   126 San Jose State          16 31.4
 70%  70 Wisconsin               49 27.2,    88 Minnesota               31 19.9
 69%  37 Arkansas                26 22.9,    87 Mississippi State       19 16.1
 68% 133 Eastern Kentucky        45 29.9,   193 Tennessee State         20 23.6
 68%  54 Dayton                  28 27.7,    96 Morehead State           0 21.6
 67% 200 California Poly         28 31.2,   210 Weber State             26 25.7
 64% 129 Massachusetts           48 23.9,   184 Rhode Island            21 19.1
 64%  51 Clemson                 27 21.0,    64 South Carolina          20 16.5
 64%  43 Toledo                  33 33.7,    82 Northern Illinois       30 28.3
 63% 105 Bethune - Cookman       37 26.2,   121 Florida A&M             10 22.0
 60% 142 New Mexico State        35 32.9,   172 Idaho                   31 30.2
 60% 141 Western Michigan        35 26.9,   179 Central Michigan        10 24.9
 60% 119 Harvard                 20 21.9,   113 Yale                    13 19.4
 57%  17 Ohio State              14 19.9,    10 Michigan                 9 18.6
 53% 122 North Carolina          23 22.1,   143 Duke                    21 21.5
 52% 203 Sam Houston State       21 23.0,   189 Southwest Texas State   14 22.6
 50% 135 Murray State            37 37.6,   111 Eastern Illinois        35 37.6
 50%  57 Villanova               38 19.8,    73 Delaware                34 19.8

 43% 100 North Texas             30 18.6,   109 Middle Tennessee State  20 20.0
 39% 146 Northwestern State      42 17.1,   144 Stephen F. Austin       35 20.1
 38%  72 Central Florida         48 26.0,    69 Miami - Ohio            31 29.3
 38%  68 Hawaii                  20 30.6,    36 Cincinnati              19 34.3
 34% 110 Lafayette               14 21.9,    77 Lehigh                   7 27.4
 33% 219 Northeast Louisiana     34 22.7,   180 Southwestern Louisiana  10 28.6
 30%  41 West Virginia           21 20.7,    25 Virginia Tech           18 28.2
 30%  24 Washington              29 23.1,    13 Washington State        26 30.8
 29% 102 Richmond                35 20.6,    84 William & Mary          13 28.5
 25%  67 Virginia                48 17.5,    18 Maryland                13 27.1
 25%  44 North Carolina State    17 22.1,     9 Florida State            7 31.8
 24%  19 Auburn                  17 17.7,     5 Alabama                  7 28.0
 23% 221 Florida Atlantic        31 15.2,   156 Florida International   21 26.2
 23% 171 Morgan State            52 20.4,    97 Hampton                 42 32.4
 23% 115 Tulane                  31 10.2,    49 Southern Mississippi    10 22.0
 23%  99 Connecticut             37 23.2,    56 Iowa State              20 36.2
 22% 128 Montana State           10 16.2,    90 Montana                  7 28.3
 21% 194 South Carolina State    26  8.5,   124 North Carolina A&T       9 20.4
 17% 220 Delaware State          14 17.1,   163 Howard                   7 33.8
 16% 127 San Diego State         38 18.5,    63 Air Force               34 37.1
 16%  98 East Carolina           31 20.7,    23 Texas Christian         28 37.1
 14% 218 Georgetown              24 17.2,   125 Towson                  16 38.2
 14% 152 Albany                  24 14.8,    48 Duquesne                 0 33.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.05  16 1.06  24 0.67  28 0.96  12 1.09   0 0.00
                
  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  87  62  67.1 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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