prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 24 Boston College 44 44.7, 189 Rutgers 14 4.3
89% 28 Texas Christian 27 32.3, 112 Memphis State 20 10.4
88% 4 Miami - Florida 49 45.0, 65 Syracuse 7 23.7
87% 58 Central Florida 42 38.2, 148 Ohio 32 17.0
87% 3 Southern California 44 30.6, 22 Notre Dame 13 11.0
86% 74 Western Kentucky 59 31.5, 159 Murray State 20 11.6
84% 44 Cincinnati 31 34.7, 104 Alabama - Birmingham 23 17.4
83% 56 Marshall 38 38.2, 116 Ball State 14 20.9
83% 46 McNeese State 21 29.8, 111 Montana State 14 12.8
83% 17 Georgia 51 24.0, 51 Georgia Tech 7 9.9
81% 7 Alabama 21 32.5, 68 Hawaii 16 17.8
80% 32 Georgia Southern 34 31.3, 76 Bethune - Cookman 0 17.6
80% 16 Tennessee 24 33.3, 53 Kentucky 0 18.3
79% 8 Texas 50 29.6, 29 Texas A&M 20 16.4
77% 93 New Mexico 49 31.1, 128 Wyoming 20 20.2
77% 38 Mississippi 24 29.4, 71 Mississippi State 12 18.8
75% 52 Villanova 45 31.0, 75 Furman 38 21.6
74% 89 Western Illinois 48 37.3, 110 Eastern Illinois 9 28.6
73% 47 Maryland 32 26.0, 66 Wake Forest 14 17.7
72% 94 Montana 45 26.2, 114 Northwestern State 14 17.9
67% 63 Arizona State 34 35.7, 97 Arizona 20 30.1
67% 34 Arkansas 21 20.7, 41 Louisiana State 20 15.7
64% 67 Southern Mississippi 24 25.8, 70 East Carolina 7 21.0
63% 136 Middle Tennessee State 45 39.9, 139 Utah State 28 36.0
63% 11 Colorado 28 30.5, 21 Nebraska 13 26.7
61% 57 Toledo 42 33.9, 59 Bowling Green 24 30.9
60% 25 Virginia Tech 21 23.1, 31 Virginia 9 20.6
45% 19 Florida State 31 21.1, 10 Florida 14 22.1
44% 80 Maine 14 19.9, 92 Appalachian State 13 21.0
36% 62 Fordham 29 23.1, 55 Northeastern 24 28.1
33% 27 West Virginia 24 18.5, 23 Pittsburgh 17 24.5
15% 173 Southern 48 21.7, 82 Grambling 24 39.3
15% 43 Oklahoma State 38 21.2, 2 Oklahoma 28 40.2
14% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 36 18.8, 39 Colorado State 33 38.4
10% 172 Houston 27 18.7, 42 Louisville 10 42.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 9 1.21 8 1.32 15 0.86 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 35 27 26.6 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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