2002 Week 15 (2-7 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 91%   2 Miami - Florida         56 37.2,    30 Virginia Tech           45 10.1
 85%  54 Hawaii                  41 36.8,   119 San Diego State         40 18.8
 79%  27 Georgia Southern        31 25.2,    75 Maine                    7 12.9
 77%   7 Georgia                 30 28.9,    24 Arkansas                 3 17.7
 67%  85 Fresno State            45 36.1,   127 Louisiana Tech          13 30.7
 65%  49 Villanova               24 34.4,    56 Fordham                 10 28.9
 63%   6 Oklahoma                29 30.0,    10 Colorado                 7 25.9
 62%  66 McNeese State           24 24.1,    71 Montana                 20 20.4
 59% 175 Navy                    58 28.7,   188 Army                    12 26.7
 53%  52 Cincinnati              42 31.0,    64 East Carolina           26 30.5
 51%  53 Marshall                49 35.5,    40 Toledo                  45 35.3

 39%  51 Western Kentucky        31 18.9,    58 Western Illinois        28 21.4
 37%  29 Washington State        48 22.0,    26 California - Los Angel  27 26.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.83   6 1.05   2 1.28   1 1.18   1 1.10   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  13  11   8.7 1.26

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net