prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 2 Kansas State 34 39.1, 36 Arizona State 27 17.1
79% 12 Boise State 34 36.8, 54 Iowa State 16 23.7
78% 20 Virginia Tech 20 33.8, 64 Air Force 13 21.4
77% 6 Texas 35 29.3, 22 Louisiana State 20 18.5
76% 40 California - Los Angel 27 30.3, 87 New Mexico 13 19.9
75% 4 Oklahoma 34 30.1, 18 Washington State 14 20.8
69% 25 Boston College 51 34.2, 53 Toledo 25 27.5
68% 24 Texas Tech 55 36.6, 45 Clemson 15 30.6
68% 5 Georgia 26 26.2, 13 Florida State 13 19.9
65% 3 Southern California 38 31.5, 8 Iowa 17 26.5
62% 38 Oklahoma State 33 24.0, 58 Southern Mississippi 23 20.5
57% 65 Fresno State 30 21.6, 70 Georgia Tech 21 20.3
57% 57 Western Kentucky 34 23.2, 62 McNeese State 14 21.9
51% 51 Marshall 38 30.7, 52 Louisville 15 30.6
48% 46 Texas Christian 17 24.7, 44 Colorado State 3 25.1
47% 28 North Carolina State 28 19.3, 26 Notre Dame 6 19.8
41% 16 Michigan 38 19.8, 10 Florida 30 21.6
40% 49 Virginia 48 24.0, 35 West Virginia 22 26.6
37% 59 Wake Forest 38 27.4, 37 Oregon 17 31.3
36% 33 Purdue 34 25.4, 23 Washington 24 29.9
33% 41 Mississippi 27 20.8, 21 Nebraska 23 26.9
33% 15 Auburn 13 23.1, 7 Penn State 9 28.8
31% 29 Maryland 30 16.1, 14 Tennessee 3 22.3
29% 93 Tulane 36 26.0, 63 Hawaii 28 33.7
29% 34 Pittsburgh 38 17.4, 19 Oregon State 13 24.4
24% 96 North Texas 24 14.2, 50 Cincinnati 19 23.8
23% 48 Wisconsin 31 19.6, 17 Colorado 28 30.6
22% 84 Minnesota 29 20.5, 31 Arkansas 14 32.2
21% 11 Ohio State 31 17.5, 1 Miami - Florida 24 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.91 11 0.69 11 0.60 1 1.12 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 14 19.8 0.71
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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