6 Jan 2004: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  0   9 17.2  7.2 Oklahoma                 121 31   0 13.8  3.1 North Carolina          
  2  1   8 17.6  6.6 Southern California      122 24   0 11.8  4.6 Duke                    
  3  1   8 16.2  7.4 Kansas State             123 25   0 12.6  4.0 Hampton                 
  4  1   7 15.0  7.9 Louisiana State          124 22   0 11.9  4.4 Alabama - Birmingham    
  5  2   6 16.4  6.3 Texas                    125 12   0 12.2  4.2 Dartmouth               
  6  2   6 15.7  6.8 Florida State            126 11   0 12.8  3.7 Rhode Island            
  7  3   6 15.6  6.6 Michigan                 127 36   0 13.3  3.3 Texas A&M               
  8  2   6 15.0  7.0 Maryland                 128 36   0 12.1  4.1 Illinois                
  9  2   6 15.1  6.9 Georgia                  129 12   0 12.8  3.6 Wyoming                 
 10  7   6 14.5  7.3 Miami - Florida          130 24   0 13.0  3.4 Eastern Washington      
 11  3   6 15.3  6.4 Pennsylvania             131 20   0 12.9  3.5 Nicholls State          
 12  3   6 15.3  6.4 Florida                  132 30   0 11.9  4.2 Stanford                
 13  4   5 16.3  5.5 Miami - Ohio             133 28   0 12.4  3.8 Vanderbilt              
 14  6   5 15.3  6.2 Washington State         134 17   0 11.9  4.2 Northwestern State      
 15  6   5 14.9  6.5 Delaware                 135 13   0 10.2  5.5 Troy State              
 16  5   5 15.9  5.7 Boise State              136 18   0 14.0  2.6 Houston                 
 17  4   5 14.1  7.0 Auburn                   137 30   0 12.1  3.9 Jacksonville State      
 18  5   5 14.5  6.7 Iowa                     138 16   0 11.2  4.6 North Carolina A&T      
 19  8   5 16.5  5.1 North Carolina State     139 13   0 11.8  4.1 Columbia                
 20  5   5 16.1  5.4 California               140 32   0 12.4  3.6 Temple                  
 21 12   5 14.1  6.7 Ohio State               141 31   0 11.6  4.1 Robert Morris           
 22 10   5 14.8  6.1 Virginia                 142 16   0 12.6  3.3 Eastern Kentucky        
 23  5   5 15.3  5.7 Mississippi              143 26   0 11.3  4.3 Weber State             
 24 12   5 14.5  6.3 Tennessee                144 19   0 11.3  4.3 Brigham Young           
 25 19   5 15.7  5.4 Virginia Tech            145 45   0 12.8  3.2 Alabama State           
 26  8   4 15.5  5.5 Arkansas                 146 13   0 13.4  2.6 Idaho State             
 27  6   4 14.5  6.1 Clemson                  147 17   0 12.6  3.2 Tulsa                   
 28  6   4 16.2  4.8 Minnesota                148 22   0 12.8  3.0 Tulane                  
 29 12   4 14.5  5.9 Purdue                   149 11   0 12.2  3.5 Rice                    
 30  9   4 13.3  6.8 Nebraska                 150 25   0 12.3  3.3 Stony Brook             
 31  6   4 14.7  5.7 Northeastern             151 11   0 11.8  3.8 The Citadel             
 32 13   4 14.8  5.6 Oregon State             152 32   0 11.2  4.2 Arizona                 
 33  6   4 13.7  6.3 Utah                     153 10   0 11.8  3.7 Nevada - Reno           
 34  6   4 15.2  5.1 Oklahoma State           154 16   0 11.8  3.7 Hofstra                 
 35  7   4 14.9  5.3 Bowling Green            155 10   0 11.7  3.8 Southwest Missouri State
 36  7   4 14.0  5.9 Villanova                156 12   0 11.5  3.9 Illinois State          
 37 20   3 16.5  3.9 Texas Tech               157 14   0 12.8  2.8 Middle Tennessee State  
 38 34   3 14.1  5.6 Alabama                  158 15   0 11.3  3.9 Florida A&M             
 39 22   3 14.4  5.2 Missouri                 159 10   0 12.6  3.0 Louisiana Tech          
 40  7   3 13.8  5.7 Lehigh                   160 10   0 12.0  3.4 Utah State              
 41 28   3 14.3  5.3 West Virginia            161 29   0 11.1  4.0 California Poly         
 42 33   3 14.3  5.3 Boston College           162 19   0 12.1  3.2 Sacred Heart            
 43  8   3 13.7  5.7 Colgate                  163 12   0 11.4  3.8 Western Carolina        
 44 13   3 13.3  5.9 Wofford                  164 31   0 11.3  3.8 Iowa State              
 45  8   3 13.7  5.6 Maine                    165 10   0 12.6  2.8 Kent State              
 46 28   3 13.9  5.5 Pittsburgh               166 13  -1 11.6  3.5 Ball State              
 47 18   3 14.1  5.3 Montana                  167 58  -1 11.4  3.6 Northern Colorado       
 48  9   3 14.6  4.8 Fordham                  168 31  -1 11.6  3.5 Virginia Military       
 49 17   3 13.9  5.3 Wisconsin                169 37  -1 12.0  3.2 Tennessee State         
 50  9   3 13.8  5.4 Massachusetts            170 10  -1 11.6  3.4 Georgetown              
 51  9   3 14.4  4.8 Connecticut              171  9  -1 10.5  4.2 East Tennessee State    
 52 15   3 14.1  5.0 Colorado State           172  9  -1 10.3  4.4 Youngstown State        
 53 20   3 12.6  6.1 Georgia Tech             173 20  -1 11.4  3.6 Gardner - Webb          
 54 12   3 14.0  5.1 Harvard                  174 20  -1 10.0  4.6 Wagner                  
 55 40   3 14.3  4.8 Colorado                 175  9  -1 11.1  3.6 Idaho                   
 56 10   3 13.5  5.4 Western Kentucky         176 42  -1 12.3  2.7 Samford                 
 57 10   2 14.0  5.0 Marshall                 177 43  -1 11.7  3.2 Alcorn State            
 58 25   2 14.1  4.9 Oregon                   178 27  -1 12.9  2.3 Morgan State            
 59 12   2 12.9  5.7 Furman                   179 13  -1 11.1  3.6 Florida International   
 60 13   2 14.2  4.7 McNeese State            180 17  -1 11.1  3.5 Indiana                 
 61 45   2 12.9  5.7 Notre Dame               181 27  -1 11.7  3.0 Mississippi State       
 62 12   2 13.6  5.1 Texas Christian          182 11  -1 11.2  3.4 Richmond                
 63 24   2 13.8  4.9 Michigan State           183  9  -1 11.2  3.3 New Mexico State        
 64 32   2 13.7  5.0 Arizona State            184 17  -1 10.8  3.6 Southeast Missouri State
 65 32   2 13.8  4.8 Southern                 185 23  -1 11.3  3.2 Iona                    
 66  9   2 15.1  3.9 Western Illinois         186 10  -1 10.9  3.4 Portland State          
 67 46   2 13.1  5.4 California - Los Angeles 187 10  -1 12.5  2.2 Holy Cross              
 68 18   2 12.0  6.1 Southern Mississippi     188  9  -1 11.7  2.8 Central Michigan        
 69 16   2 13.7  4.8 New Mexico               189  9  -1 11.7  2.7 San Jose State          
 70 27   2 14.1  4.5 Wake Forest              190 57  -1 12.6  2.0 Valparaiso              
 71  9   2 13.5  5.0 Memphis State            191  9  -1 11.2  3.1 Ohio                    
 72 45   2 12.5  5.7 Penn State               192 13  -1 10.9  3.3 Central Florida         
 73  9   2 13.7  4.8 Air Force                193  9  -2 10.5  3.4 Eastern Michigan        
 74 31   2 13.1  5.2 South Carolina           194 27  -2 11.0  2.8 Southern Utah           
 75 10   2 14.0  4.5 Toledo                   195 22  -2 12.3  1.8 Drake                   
 76 10   2 14.7  3.9 Yale                     196 20  -2 11.2  2.5 East Carolina           
 77 38   2 13.5  4.8 Washington               197  8  -2 10.0  3.4 Eastern Illinois        
 78 28   2 13.5  4.7 Syracuse                 198 17  -2 10.5  3.0 Baylor                  
 79 32   2 13.3  4.9 Albany                   199 11  -2  9.6  3.6 Howard                  
 80  9   2 13.8  4.5 Lafayette                200  8  -2 10.1  3.2 Cornell                 
 81  9   2 14.9  3.6 Hawaii                   201 12  -2 10.9  2.6 Sacramento State        
 82 14   1 13.2  4.8 Northern Iowa            202 16  -2 10.3  3.0 Jackson State           
 83 10   1 13.5  4.6 Northern Illinois        203  7  -2 10.6  2.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 84 38   1 14.6  3.7 San Diego                204 15  -2 10.7  2.6 Central Connecticut     
 85 33   1 12.5  5.3 Dayton                   205  7  -3  9.8  3.2 Indiana State           
 86  9   1 13.6  4.4 Georgia Southern         206 35  -3 10.6  2.6 California - Davis      
 87 28   1 13.5  4.5 Southern Illinois        207  7  -3 10.1  2.9 Murray State            
 88 21   1 13.5  4.4 Duquesne                 208  8  -3 11.5  1.8 Northeast Louisiana     
 89 19   1 13.1  4.7 Navy                     209 12  -3 10.0  2.7 Buffalo                 
 90 10   1 12.5  5.1 North Texas              210  7  -3 10.2  2.5 Marist                  
 91 14   1 14.8  3.4 Akron                    211 13  -3 10.9  1.9 Southwest Texas State   
 92 18   1 13.9  4.0 Louisville               212  7  -3  9.9  2.6 Arkansas State          
 93 28   1 13.2  4.5 Stephen F. Austin        213 12  -3 10.2  2.3 Texas Southern          
 94 17   1 12.5  5.1 South Florida            214  7  -3 10.4  2.1 Tennessee Tech          
 95 34   1 13.2  4.5 Kentucky                 215  6  -3 11.1  1.6 Liberty                 
 96 10   1 14.0  3.7 Kansas                   216  6  -3  9.9  2.5 Army                    
 97 11   1 13.6  4.1 William & Mary           217  6  -4  9.7  2.5 Delaware State          
 98 12   1 12.7  4.6 Brown                    218 28  -4  9.9  2.3 Coastal Carolina        
 99 10   1 12.0  5.1 Nevada - Las Vegas       219  6  -4  9.4  2.7 Saint Peter's           
100 15   1 12.3  4.8 Fresno State             220  8  -4  8.4  3.5 Southern Methodist      
101 21   1 12.3  4.8 Northwestern             221  5  -4  9.3  2.7 Elon                    
102 26   1 12.7  4.6 South Carolina State     222  5  -4 10.1  2.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
103 22   1 13.3  4.1 Northern Arizona         223 13  -4  8.6  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
104 21   1 13.1  4.2 Cincinnati               224  5  -4 10.6  1.5 Sam Houston State       
105 16   1 12.1  4.9 Princeton                225  5  -4 10.6  1.5 Texas - El Paso         
106 31   1 11.5  5.3 Montana State            226 18  -4 10.4  1.5 Davidson                
107 10   1 12.2  4.7 Appalachian State        227  8  -4  9.4  2.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
108 44   0 10.0  6.4 Monmouth                 228 19  -5  9.3  2.1 Jacksonville            
109 35   1 12.8  4.3 Florida Atlantic         229  4  -5  8.1  2.6 Mississippi Valley State
110 29   0 11.7  5.0 Morehead State           230  4  -5  9.8  1.3 La Salle                
111 11   0 11.1  5.5 San Diego State          231  8  -5  8.3  2.3 Austin Peay             
112 11   0 11.3  5.3 Towson                   232 11  -5 11.4 -0.1 Southeast Louisiana     
113 11   0 11.9  4.8 James Madison            233  3  -6  8.1  1.8 Saint Mary's            
114 11   0 14.1  3.2 New Hampshire            234  4  -6  7.7  2.1 Butler                  
115 11   0 13.3  3.7 Western Michigan         235  3  -7  8.5  1.1 Tennessee - Martin      
116 35   0 13.5  3.5 Grambling                236  2  -7  7.1  2.1 Siena                   
117 25   0 13.2  3.7 Rutgers                  237  2  -7  9.2  0.1 Norfolk State           
118 28   0 12.6  4.1 Bethune - Cookman        238  2  -8  6.5  1.5 Savannah State          
119 48   0 11.7  4.8 Alabama A&M              239  1  -8  7.4  0.6 Charleston Southern     
120 11   0 11.8  4.6 Bucknell                 240  1 -12  5.6 -1.2 Prairie View            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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