6 Jan 2004: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  1   8 17.5  6.8 Southern California      121 27   0 12.6  4.0 Bethune - Cookman       
  2  1   8 16.9  7.1 Oklahoma                 122 30   0 13.8  3.1 North Carolina          
  3  1   8 16.3  7.4 Kansas State             123 11   0 12.8  3.8 Rhode Island            
  4  1   8 15.3  8.1 Louisiana State          124 11   0 12.2  4.2 Dartmouth               
  5  4   6 16.4  6.3 Texas                    125 28   0 12.6  3.9 Hampton                 
  6  2   6 15.1  7.2 Maryland                 126 21   0 12.0  4.3 Alabama - Birmingham    
  7  3   6 15.6  6.8 Florida State            127 36   0 12.1  4.1 Illinois                
  8  6   6 14.5  7.5 Miami - Florida          128 22   0 14.3  2.5 Houston                 
  9  2   6 15.5  6.7 Michigan                 129 24   0 13.0  3.5 Eastern Washington      
 10  2   6 15.3  6.8 Georgia                  130 35   0 13.2  3.2 Texas A&M               
 11  5   6 15.0  6.9 Delaware                 131 13   0 12.7  3.6 Wyoming                 
 12  3   6 15.4  6.4 Pennsylvania             132 21   0 12.8  3.5 Nicholls State          
 13  3   5 16.5  5.5 Miami - Ohio             133 14   0 10.3  5.4 Troy State              
 14  6   5 15.4  6.3 Washington State         134 27   0 12.4  3.8 Vanderbilt              
 15  3   5 14.6  6.8 Iowa                     135 28   0 11.8  4.1 Stanford                
 16  3   5 14.2  7.1 Auburn                   136 16   0 11.7  4.2 Northwestern State      
 17  7   5 15.3  6.2 Florida                  137 25   0 12.1  3.9 Jacksonville State      
 18  4   5 16.7  5.1 North Carolina State     138 34   0 12.4  3.5 Temple                  
 19  6   5 15.9  5.6 Boise State              139 13   0 11.7  4.1 Columbia                
 20  4   5 16.4  5.2 California               140 32   0 11.6  4.2 Robert Morris           
 21  6   5 14.2  6.7 Ohio State               141 27   0 11.4  4.3 Weber State             
 22  5   5 15.4  5.8 Mississippi              142 12   0 11.1  4.5 North Carolina A&T      
 23  8   5 14.8  6.2 Virginia                 143 10   0 12.3  3.6 Rice                    
 24  5   5 14.7  6.2 Clemson                  144 20   0 12.7  3.3 Eastern Kentucky        
 25  8   4 15.4  5.5 Arkansas                 145 43   0 12.7  3.2 Alabama State           
 26  5   4 15.2  5.7 Oregon State             146 15   0 13.4  2.7 Idaho State             
 27 11   4 14.4  6.3 Tennessee                147 19   0 11.2  4.3 Brigham Young           
 28  6   4 13.7  6.7 Utah                     148 25   0 12.4  3.4 Stony Brook             
 29 17   4 15.9  5.1 Virginia Tech            149 22   0 12.9  3.0 Tulane                  
 30  6   4 16.2  4.8 Minnesota                150 10   0 11.6  3.9 Illinois State          
 31  6   4 14.8  5.7 Northeastern             151 33   0 11.1  4.2 Arizona                 
 32 11   4 14.6  5.8 Purdue                   152 10   0 11.8  3.6 Southwest Missouri State
 33  6   4 13.2  6.8 Nebraska                 153 11   0 11.7  3.7 Nevada - Reno           
 34 17   4 16.4  4.2 Texas Tech               154 11   0 11.7  3.7 The Citadel             
 35  6   4 15.2  5.1 Oklahoma State           155 11   0 12.6  3.0 Tulsa                   
 36  8   4 14.0  5.8 Villanova                156 12   0 11.3  3.9 Florida A&M             
 37  6   3 14.8  5.2 Bowling Green            157 10   0 11.4  3.8 Western Carolina        
 38 27   3 14.4  5.4 Boston College           158 12   0 12.8  2.8 Middle Tennessee State  
 39 32   3 14.1  5.5 Alabama                  159 10   0 12.7  2.8 Kent State              
 40  7   3 13.8  5.7 Lehigh                   160 15   0 11.7  3.6 Hofstra                 
 41 20   3 14.3  5.3 Missouri                 161 17   0 12.1  3.2 Sacred Heart            
 42 11   3 13.3  5.9 Wofford                  162 29   0 11.6  3.6 Virginia Military       
 43  7   3 13.7  5.6 Maine                    163 29   0 11.0  4.0 California Poly         
 44 13   3 12.9  6.2 Georgia Tech             164 10   0 11.9  3.3 Utah State              
 45 30   3 13.8  5.5 Pittsburgh               165 36   0 12.0  3.2 Tennessee State         
 46 30   3 14.1  5.2 West Virginia            166 10  -1 10.7  4.3 East Tennessee State    
 47 18   3 14.1  5.2 Montana                  167 10  -1 12.4  2.9 Louisiana Tech          
 48  8   3 14.6  4.8 Fordham                  168 58  -1 11.4  3.6 Northern Colorado       
 49 17   3 13.9  5.3 Wisconsin                169 12  -1 11.6  3.5 Ball State              
 50  9   3 14.5  4.8 Connecticut              170 28  -1 11.2  3.7 Iowa State              
 51  9   3 13.7  5.4 Massachusetts            171  9  -1 11.2  3.7 Idaho                   
 52 38   3 14.4  4.8 Colorado                 172 11  -1 11.6  3.4 Georgetown              
 53 12   3 14.0  5.1 Harvard                  173 22  -1 10.0  4.6 Wagner                  
 54 22   3 14.2  4.9 Oregon                   174 42  -1 11.8  3.2 Alcorn State            
 55 10   3 13.6  5.4 Western Kentucky         175  9  -1 10.3  4.3 Youngstown State        
 56 10   3 13.1  5.7 Furman                   176 19  -1 11.3  3.5 Gardner - Webb          
 57 10   3 13.2  5.6 Colgate                  177 42  -1 12.3  2.7 Samford                 
 58 16   2 14.0  4.9 Colorado State           178 27  -1 13.0  2.2 Morgan State            
 59  9   2 13.9  5.1 Marshall                 179 12  -1 11.0  3.6 Florida International   
 60 31   2 13.8  5.0 Michigan State           180 18  -1 11.0  3.6 Indiana                 
 61 12   2 13.8  5.0 Texas Christian          181  9  -1 11.2  3.4 New Mexico State        
 62 43   2 12.9  5.7 Notre Dame               182 18  -1 10.9  3.6 Southeast Missouri State
 63 34   2 13.7  5.0 Arizona State            183 59  -1 12.8  2.0 Valparaiso              
 64 13   2 14.1  4.7 McNeese State            184 22  -1 11.2  3.2 Iona                    
 65 32   2 13.7  4.9 Southern                 185  9  -1 10.9  3.4 Portland State          
 66  9   2 15.1  3.8 Western Illinois         186 11  -1 11.1  3.3 Richmond                
 67 45   2 13.0  5.4 California - Los Angeles 187 24  -1 11.5  3.0 Mississippi State       
 68 10   2 13.5  5.0 Memphis State            188  9  -1 11.2  3.2 Ohio                    
 69 10   2 14.0  4.5 Toledo                   189  9  -1 11.7  2.7 San Jose State          
 70 26   2 14.1  4.5 Wake Forest              190  9  -1 12.5  2.1 Holy Cross              
 71 46   2 12.5  5.6 Penn State               191  9  -1 11.8  2.6 Central Michigan        
 72 10   2 13.5  4.8 Air Force                192 13  -2 10.9  3.2 Central Florida         
 73 38   2 13.5  4.8 Washington               193  9  -2 10.6  3.4 Eastern Michigan        
 74 33   2 13.1  5.1 South Carolina           194 27  -2 11.0  2.9 Southern Utah           
 75 29   2 13.5  4.7 Syracuse                 195 20  -2 12.3  1.8 Drake                   
 76 12   2 14.7  3.9 Yale                     196  8  -2 10.0  3.4 Eastern Illinois        
 77  9   2 13.8  4.5 Lafayette                197 17  -2 10.5  3.0 Baylor                  
 78 29   2 13.3  4.8 Albany                   198 13  -2  9.6  3.7 Howard                  
 79  9   2 13.6  4.6 New Mexico               199 19  -2 11.3  2.4 East Carolina           
 80 25   2 11.5  6.1 Southern Mississippi     200  8  -2 10.7  2.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 81 36   2 14.6  3.8 San Diego                201  8  -2 10.2  3.2 Cornell                 
 82 14   2 13.2  4.8 Northern Iowa            202 11  -2 10.8  2.6 Sacramento State        
 83 10   1 13.7  4.4 Georgia Southern         203 17  -2 10.3  3.0 Jackson State           
 84 10   1 15.0  3.4 Hawaii                   204 15  -2 10.7  2.6 Central Connecticut     
 85 21   1 13.5  4.5 Duquesne                 205 35  -3 10.7  2.6 California - Davis      
 86 30   1 12.5  5.2 Dayton                   206  7  -3  9.8  3.2 Indiana State           
 87 10   1 13.5  4.5 Northern Illinois        207  7  -3 10.1  2.9 Murray State            
 88 30   1 13.2  4.6 Stephen F. Austin        208  8  -3 11.5  1.8 Northeast Louisiana     
 89 19   1 12.4  5.1 South Florida            209 12  -3 10.0  2.7 Buffalo                 
 90 26   1 13.5  4.4 Southern Illinois        210  7  -3 10.2  2.5 Marist                  
 91 12   1 14.8  3.4 Akron                    211  7  -3 11.3  1.6 Liberty                 
 92 16   1 14.1  3.9 Louisville               212 15  -3 10.9  1.9 Southwest Texas State   
 93 10   1 12.4  5.1 North Texas              213  7  -3  9.9  2.6 Arkansas State          
 94 10   1 12.8  4.8 Navy                     214 14  -3 10.3  2.3 Texas Southern          
 95 10   1 13.6  4.1 William & Mary           215  6  -3  9.9  2.5 Army                    
 96 11   1 12.8  4.7 Brown                    216  6  -3 10.4  2.1 Tennessee Tech          
 97 34   1 13.0  4.5 Kentucky                 217 28  -4 10.0  2.3 Coastal Carolina        
 98 17   1 12.4  4.9 Northwestern             218  6  -4  9.4  2.7 Saint Peter's           
 99 10   1 12.0  5.1 Nevada - Las Vegas       219  8  -4  8.4  3.5 Southern Methodist      
100 28   1 12.8  4.6 South Carolina State     220  6  -4  9.6  2.5 Delaware State          
101 13   1 13.9  3.7 Kansas                   221  6  -4  9.3  2.6 Elon                    
102 22   1 13.3  4.1 Northern Arizona         222 13  -4  8.5  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
103 13   1 12.3  4.9 Fresno State             223  5  -4 10.6  1.5 Texas - El Paso         
104 32   1 12.9  4.3 Florida Atlantic         224  5  -4 10.6  1.5 Sam Houston State       
105 20   1 13.2  4.1 Cincinnati               225  5  -4 10.2  1.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
106 18   1 12.1  4.9 Princeton                226 18  -4 10.3  1.5 Davidson                
107 10   1 11.1  5.6 San Diego State          227  9  -4  9.5  2.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
108 30   1 11.5  5.3 Montana State            228 15  -5  9.2  2.1 Jacksonville            
109 11   1 12.3  4.7 Appalachian State        229 12  -5 11.5  0.0 Southeast Louisiana     
110 43   0 10.0  6.4 Monmouth                 230  6  -5  8.2  2.5 Mississippi Valley State
111 10   0 14.2  3.2 New Hampshire            231  6  -5  9.7  1.3 La Salle                
112 10   0 11.4  5.3 Towson                   232  8  -5  8.3  2.3 Austin Peay             
113 30   0 11.8  4.9 Morehead State           233  3  -6  8.2  1.8 Saint Mary's            
114 10   0 11.9  4.8 James Madison            234  5  -6  7.7  2.1 Butler                  
115 49   0 11.8  4.8 Alabama A&M              235  3  -7  8.6  1.0 Tennessee - Martin      
116 11   0 13.3  3.7 Western Michigan         236  3  -7  7.1  2.0 Siena                   
117 24   0 13.2  3.7 Rutgers                  237  2  -7  9.3  0.1 Norfolk State           
118 36   0 13.5  3.4 Grambling                238  2  -8  6.6  1.5 Savannah State          
119 11   0 11.9  4.6 Bucknell                 239  1  -9  7.4  0.5 Charleston Southern     
120 26   0 11.8  4.6 Duke                     240  1 -12  5.5 -1.3 Prairie View            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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