rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 20 Oregon State over 178 Sacramento State 99 Arizona over 224 Texas - El Paso 4 Kansas State over 142 Troy State 26 Louisiana State over 199 Northeast Louisiana 19 Michigan over 173 Central Michigan 61 Minnesota over 221 Tulsa 21 North Carolina State over 147 Western Carolina 3 Oklahoma over 87 North Texas 47 Texas A&M over 209 Arkansas State 25 Texas Tech over 190 Southern Methodist 144 The Citadel over 235 Charleston Southern 91 Bethune - Cookman over 238 Savannah State 5 Texas over 134 New Mexico State 80-90% chance of victory: 141 Akron over 204 Kent State 49 Bowling Green over 113 Eastern Kentucky 124 Middle Tennessee State over 211 Florida Atlantic 95 Utah over 165 Utah State 30 Villanova over 114 Hampton 1 Miami - Florida over 160 Louisiana Tech 65 Duquesne over 158 Bucknell 6 Georgia over 77 Clemson 93 Connecticut over 162 Indiana 70 Furman over 212 Elon 10 Iowa over 81 Miami - Ohio 44 Iowa State over 172 Northern Iowa 136 James Madison over 222 Liberty 104 Memphis State over 179 Tennessee Tech 155 Murray State over 240 Valparaiso 129 Nevada - Reno over 234 Southern Utah 107 New Mexico over 195 Southwest Texas State 14 Florida State over 115 North Carolina 8 Ohio State over 40 Washington 11 Penn State over 101 Temple 72 South Carolina over 194 Southwestern Louisiana 32 Tennessee over 88 Fresno State 197 Texas Southern over 237 Prairie View 34 Virginia over 127 Duke 15 Washington State over 176 Idaho 16 Virginia Tech over 82 Central Florida 70-80% chance of victory: 119 Ball State over 177 Indiana State 64 Georgia Tech over 121 Brigham Young 149 Illinois State over 189 Drake 17 Maryland over 85 Northern Illinois 187 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 225 Samford 227 Austin Peay over 239 Tennessee - Martin 68 Toledo over 126 Nevada - Las Vegas 188 Alcorn State over 218 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 2 Southern California over 13 Auburn 146 Alabama - Birmingham over 203 Baylor 27 Boston College over 59 Wake Forest 22 California over 73 Southern Mississippi 48 Marshall over 96 Hofstra 180 Southern over 217 Mississippi Valley State 161 New Hampshire over 207 Central Connecticut 184 Rutgers over 206 Buffalo 108 Sacred Heart over 174 Saint Peter's 157 South Carolina State over 208 Tennessee State 58 Mississippi over 118 Vanderbilt 9 Alabama over 36 South Florida 154 Florida A&M over 193 Alabama State 18 Colorado over 53 Colorado State 69 Cincinnati over 102 East Carolina 60-70% chance of victory: 181 East Tennessee State over 215 Eastern Michigan 79 Air Force over 89 Wofford 166 Alabama A&M over 175 Jacksonville State 24 Florida over 52 San Jose State 80 Hawaii over 92 Appalachian State 151 Houston over 153 Rice 159 Northwestern over 198 Kansas 57 Maine over 62 Montana 106 Michigan State over 116 Western Michigan 60 Oregon over 100 Mississippi State 103 Towson over 163 Morgan State 182 Navy over 191 Virginia Military 35 Nebraska over 38 Oklahoma State 109 Northwestern State over 122 Jackson State 42 West Virginia over 51 Wisconsin 110 Montana State over 164 Wyoming 66 Missouri over 71 Illinois 56 Kentucky over 67 Louisville 45 Texas Christian over 94 Tulane 50-60% chance of victory: 130 Southeast Missouri State over 156 Ohio 148 Northern Arizona over 139 Saint Mary's 133 San Diego State over 123 Eastern Washington
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